Poker + Game Theory fun

[Nate.]

Good folks --

A friend of mine has posted a surprisingly entertaining question over here .

The basic question: if n players are doing a serpentine draft for hold'em starting hands (to be run hot-and-cold), what do they take? Thoughts on n=5 are in a later post. Analyze here, comment there, whatever you want.

--Nate

[Borodog]

Interesting. Thanks for the tip.

What about a first round of:
R1: A,A,A,A,Q

Is P5's play sound here? And what should be P1-4's play given P5?

[Riddick]

I think P5 is in the best position here to end up with QQ against AK AK ATs A5s or something like that.

What if P4 doesnt take the final Ace? Does this force P5 to take the Ace and put P4 in the best position?

[Nate.]

Well, P5 gets the next two picks, so why not take KK?

[Riddick]

Ah, I missed the serpentine draft part too, thought it just went back to P1 after P5's first pick.

[Prodigy54321]

for N=5

If P1 goes for A and then P2 goes for K, no one can go for KK since it would allow for AA, then would P2's first pick automatically throw P3 into middle suited connector mode, since AA or KK cannot be avoided? Of course then P2's best move would not be to go K so he'd probably go middle suited connector first

This would of give P5 a pretty heinous advantage I think (I think he'll get his AA due to game theory). It is indeed better for P1-4 than going A/small against P5 KK, which i think would happen if they don't all go into suited connector mode

of course this would all make P1's first move pretty iffy as well.....damn this makes my brain hurt, just throwing stuff out there...i think it's decent

[Silent A]

My take on it:

First, player 1 is screwed if he takes an A. So he should go for a suited connector (say J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]).

Player 2, seeing this, still has no hope of getting AA so he too should go for a suited connector (say 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]).

Player 5 is now guarenteed AA. Knowing this, players 3 and 4 should go for suited connectors in diamonds and spades.

Player 5 takes AA.

So I see something like:

1. J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 18.6%
2. 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 16.6%
3. 7 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 13.9%
4. 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 14.9%
5. A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 36.0%

[Borodog]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah, I missed the serpentine draft part too, thought it just went back to P1 after P5's first pick.

[/ QUOTE ]

Ah. Not being a fantasy sports guy, I didn't realize that's what "serpentine" meant. That seems like an odd way to do it. So if I understand correctly, in a real fantasy serpentine draft situation, there are always two teams the get to double pick because they go first and last? That seems odd.

[Meromorphic]

[ QUOTE ]
Ah. Not being a fantasy sports guy, I didn't realize that's what "serpentine" meant. That seems like an odd way to do it. So if I understand correctly, in a real fantasy serpentine draft situation, there are always two teams the get to double pick because they go first and last? That seems odd.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sure, they get to double pick, but it's a very long time between picks. The idea is to make sure that the average quality of everybody's team is the same at the end.

[Borodog]

I see your point. It's like operator splitting. OK, it's not, but it reminds of of it. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]