Fuper hand w/ Erick Lindgren

[mikeJ]

I just doubled a few hands back vs. Erick when I had a bigger flush draw vs. his flush draw in a limped pot. I was on shortstack until then. Not much info on PFR, and I haven't seen Erick coldcalling that much.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3186407895: $55,000 Guarantee (24002603), Table 17 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/08/07
dimathegrinder (Observer): ?
Seat 1: TommyDukes (18,728)
Seat 2: BKiCe (11,368)
Seat 3: ginter (13,807)
Seat 4: Whipsaw3 (30,075)
Seat 5: Jimmy3times (8,826)
Seat 6: UbsoLute (62,275)
Seat 7: Erick Lindgren (53,096)
Seat 8: HolezLikeSwiss (22,332)
Seat 9: yoren8 (29,650)
TommyDukes antes 125
BKiCe antes 125
ginter antes 125
Whipsaw3 antes 125
Jimmy3times antes 125
UbsoLute antes 125
Erick Lindgren antes 125
HolezLikeSwiss antes 125
yoren8 antes 125
ginter posts the small blind of 500
Whipsaw3 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
Jimmy3times folds
UbsoLute has 15 seconds left to act
UbsoLute raises to 2,500
Erick Lindgren calls 2,500
HolezLikeSwiss folds
yoren8 ?

I'll just start w/ preflop.

[ZJ123]

10750 to go

or shove

or a call isnt terrible

[JayPez]

i'm thinking about playing safe and calling
but squeezing is probably +ev

i'll check the math...

125*9 + 1500 + 5000 = 7625 pot

I’ve no idea how either play so maybe you wanna tinker the ranges but I’ll treat them both as solidish

Ubsolute = 88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 7.4%
Erick = 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ 9.2% of hands



If ubsolute pushes with…

TT+,AQs+,Ako 3.8% of hands

(I’ll put it tightish because he should be scared about getting stacked by Erick because hes the only player at the table who can break him and he could be trapping)

Erick will only call that with…

QQ + 1.4% of hands

(ak is only 44% vs that range)

This happens 7% of time and your 20% equity



ubsolute pushes Erick folds…

this happens 44% of time and your 37% equity


If ubsolute folds erik calls with…

99+,AQs+,Ako 4.2% of hands

this happens 23% of time and your 39% equity


if they both fold 26% of time. 100% equity


TBC 7%
U win 62k 20%
U lose 30k 80%
= 12k-24k = -12k

1C1F 44%
u win 35k 37%
u lose 30k 63%
= 13k-19k = -6k

1C1F 23%
u win 35k 39%
u lose 30k 61%
= 14k-18k = -4k

TBF 26%
U win 8k = 8k

-0.84-3.78-0.92+2 = -3540 chips

-ev with those ranges but who knows if those ranges are right lol

pez

[ryanghall]

I like a call here.

Ryan

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
i'm thinking about playing safe and calling
but squeezing is probably +ev

i'll check the math...

125*9 + 1500 + 5000 = 7625 pot

I’ve no idea how either play so maybe you wanna tinker the ranges but I’ll treat them both as solidish

Ubsolute = 88+,ATs+,KQs,AJo+ 7.4%
Erick = 66+,AJs+,KJs+,QJs,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AQo+ 9.2% of hands



If ubsolute pushes with…

TT+,AQs+,Ako 3.8% of hands

(I’ll put it tightish because he should be scared about getting stacked by Erick because hes the only player at the table who can break him and he could be trapping)

Erick will only call that with…

QQ + 1.4% of hands

(ak is only 44% vs that range)

This happens 7% of time and your 20% equity



ubsolute pushes Erick folds…

this happens 44% of time and your 37% equity


If ubsolute folds erik calls with…

99+,AQs+,Ako 4.2% of hands

this happens 23% of time and your 39% equity


if they both fold 26% of time. 100% equity


TBC 7%
U win 62k 20%
U lose 30k 80%
= 12k-24k = -12k

1C1F 44%
u win 35k 37%
u lose 30k 63%
= 13k-19k = -6k

1C1F 23%
u win 35k 39%
u lose 30k 61%
= 14k-18k = -4k

TBF 26%
U win 8k = 8k

-0.84-3.78-0.92+2 = -3540 chips

-ev with those ranges but who knows if those ranges are right lol

pez

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know if those ranges are right either or if those figures are useful considering how uncertain we are about both their ranges, but def appreciate the effort.

[JayPez]

np, i often do these ranges things for myself when i'm not sure, its pretty crucial stuff to have down imo.

anyway calling ranges are slightly more important then raising ranges, and are probably closer to correct.

pez

[NoahSD]

Stacks are just way too [censored] here to 3-bet, and obv folding is too weak because AQs is awesome.. so just call.

[adanthar]

the math and ranges look more or less ok (I don't know how he plays, either) but you can usually eyeball it at the table pretty easily. just remember you're around 35% against a calling range, and you can figure the rest out in 5 seconds.

anyway, I call and hope one of the shorties pushes because that basically solves the rest of the hand for you really quickly either way.

[FGators]

Yeah given stacks a call is the best play here I think. I don't see folding as an option and without a great read on the PFR I guess raising or pushing is tough to do with limited information.

Against a more active guy I think a raise to 11k and calling a shove would be best.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I just doubled a few hands back vs. Erick when I had a bigger flush draw vs. his flush draw in a limped pot. I was on shortstack until then. Not much info on PFR, and I haven't seen Erick coldcalling that much.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3186407895: $55,000 Guarantee (24002603), Table 17 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/08/07
dimathegrinder (Observer): ?
Seat 1: TommyDukes (18,728)
Seat 2: BKiCe (11,368)
Seat 3: ginter (13,807)
Seat 4: Whipsaw3 (30,075)
Seat 5: Jimmy3times (8,826)
Seat 6: UbsoLute (62,275)
Seat 7: Erick Lindgren (53,096)
Seat 8: HolezLikeSwiss (22,332)
Seat 9: yoren8 (29,650)
TommyDukes antes 125
BKiCe antes 125
ginter antes 125
Whipsaw3 antes 125
Jimmy3times antes 125
UbsoLute antes 125
Erick Lindgren antes 125
HolezLikeSwiss antes 125
yoren8 antes 125
ginter posts the small blind of 500
Whipsaw3 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
Jimmy3times folds
UbsoLute has 15 seconds left to act
UbsoLute raises to 2,500
Erick Lindgren calls 2,500
HolezLikeSwiss folds
yoren8 ?


[/ QUOTE ]

yoren8 calls 2,500 (<font color="blue">I ended up calling and feel that this is optimal, if I had say 25k, I'd flip a coin between jamming and calling, and I'd def just move AI if I had 20k</font>)
TommyDukes folds
BKiCe folds
ginter calls 2,000
Whipsaw3 folds
*** FLOP *** [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] (Pot = 12125)
ginter checks
UbsoLute checks
Erick Lindgren checks
yoren8 ?

A) Check
B) Bet/call 5kish
C) Bet/call 9kish
D) Bet/call some other amount

Please state why you prefer the action you advise.

[rsxpunk]

gotta bet this for value here i think, about half pot sized to induce a cr looks good

[nath]

1)put it in PF
2)definitely bet-call, i dunno, 6k?

[Soulman]

6k looks good. You're never getting hands that beat you (AK/AJ/sets) to fold anyway, worse aces/flush draws can be tempted to crai. You also want the money to get in on the flop as opposed to later.

[djk123]

I'd either shove or make it 10-11k with the intention of getting it in

oh and flop i'd bet like 7k and call shove

[Thegunshow]

Looks like a hand we are hoping to get re-popped all in so what is everyone's thoughts on the proper amount to induce a push? I initially thought 5k looked god but am reading amounts up to 7k. Arguments for or against any particular bet size?

[shaundeeb]

stacks look awesome for a 3bet here to 10k you have a PSB left for the flop

[bluesbassman]

[ QUOTE ]
1)put it in PF
2)definitely bet-call, i dunno, 6k?

[/ QUOTE ]

Nath, you would push here preflop?

As played, on that flop, I'm want to get it all in. You have about 27K left in your stack, so I like about a 7K bet. That bet size looks like you are leaving yourself room to fold. The idea, like others have stated, is to gain value from worse draws that will be tempted to come over the top.

[Todd Terry]

I'm indifferent between raising to 10K, calling or jamming preflop.

I think I check behind on the flop. The odds are very high that they both missed the flop, you are never folding this and the odds of them catching up are slim. Check behind and hope to get a bet on the turn if one of them has KK or QQ. We're never getting C/R all-in unless one of them flopped a set or two pair with AJ, since AK or AQ has to bet out IMO. Maybe another flush draw C/R all-in, but it's unlikely that someone has one and it would be a rather dumb play with the A on board, because FE would be minimal.

[anuj]

[ QUOTE ]
I think I check behind on the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

No way. TP2K, nut FD against a raise and a call. I bet around 6-7k with the intention of 3-betting AI or shoving any turn.

[Ansky]

Anyone checking behind on the flop is wrong. It is wrong vs almost anyone, but especially vs action happy ftp pros like lindgren. He will not fold any ace on the flop here for sure, nor a jack. He may even call once w/ a flush draw, and I don't think him bluff c/r-ing is out of the question for him. I've played w/ him a decent amount on ftp and I think he is better than most of the ftp pros but still does a lot of spewy crap. Don't forget you are playing w/ Erick Lindgren in a 150 dollar tournament...

[luckychewy]

i like pf. now i'd bet 7350 cause there is certainly a ton of value to be found here in a 4 way pot when u are betting in the last position. i don't think it's inconceivable to get bluff raised sometimes and i doubt you fold out ax/lower fd's for one bet. just bet and be happy to get it in.

[Rekwob]

how close is this to the bubble? lindgren might c/r all in for the fun of it if you bet 6-7k ish

[NoahSD]

[ QUOTE ]
stacks look awesome for a 3bet here to 10k you have a PSB left for the flop

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah.. but we don't see a flop that often when we 3-bet... we either get 4-bet on (in which case leaving yourself with a PSB and a hand that's probably crushed by a 4-betting range sucks) or they fold (which is obv awesome).

I think it's a huge leak if you think these are good stacks for 3-betting.. These are like the exact stacks that suck balls for 3-betting.

Flop I like 7k/call a shove.

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]

I think it's a huge leak if you think these are good stacks for 3-betting.. These are like the exact stacks that suck balls for 3-betting.

[/ QUOTE ]

Count me among those that have a huge leak, then. You're reraising for 1/3 of your stack. Because it's that much of your stack, they can't call, they have to raise and put you all in or fold. Thus, they have to risk 30K against the 10K you risked. It's the best possible stack for 3-betting, you can effectively move all-in without actually moving all-in.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I just doubled a few hands back vs. Erick when I had a bigger flush draw vs. his flush draw in a limped pot. I was on shortstack until then. Not much info on PFR, and I haven't seen Erick coldcalling that much.

Full Tilt Poker Game #3186407895: $55,000 Guarantee (24002603), Table 17 - 500/1000 Ante 125 - No Limit Hold'em - 23:40:32 ET - 2007/08/07
dimathegrinder (Observer): ?
Seat 1: TommyDukes (18,728)
Seat 2: BKiCe (11,368)
Seat 3: ginter (13,807)
Seat 4: Whipsaw3 (30,075)
Seat 5: Jimmy3times (8,826)
Seat 6: UbsoLute (62,275)
Seat 7: Erick Lindgren (53,096)
Seat 8: HolezLikeSwiss (22,332)
Seat 9: yoren8 (29,650)
TommyDukes antes 125
BKiCe antes 125
ginter antes 125
Whipsaw3 antes 125
Jimmy3times antes 125
UbsoLute antes 125
Erick Lindgren antes 125
HolezLikeSwiss antes 125
yoren8 antes 125
ginter posts the small blind of 500
Whipsaw3 posts the big blind of 1,000
The button is in seat #2
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to yoren8 [A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif Q/images/graemlins/diamond.gif]
Jimmy3times folds
UbsoLute has 15 seconds left to act
UbsoLute raises to 2,500
Erick Lindgren calls 2,500
HolezLikeSwiss folds
yoren8 ?


[/ QUOTE ]

yoren8 calls 2,500 (<font color="blue">I ended up calling and feel that this is optimal, if I had say 25k, I'd flip a coin between jamming and calling, and I'd def just move AI if I had 20k</font>)
TommyDukes folds
BKiCe folds
ginter calls 2,000
Whipsaw3 folds
*** FLOP *** [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] (Pot = 12125)
ginter checks
UbsoLute checks
Erick Lindgren checks
yoren8 ?


[/ QUOTE ]

yoren8 bets 5,000 (<font color="blue">Alright, so I bet 5k, a bit smaller than what the majority feels is the right bet size. I was trying to induce a c/r or get a loose call from a jack</font>)
ginter folds
UbsoLute folds
Erick Lindgren calls 5,000
*** TURN *** [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif] [6/images/graemlins/club.gif] (Pot = 22125)
Erick Lindgren checks
yoren8 has 15 seconds left to act
yoren8 checks
*** RIVER *** [A/images/graemlins/heart.gif 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif 6/images/graemlins/club.gif] [T/images/graemlins/club.gif] (Pot = 22125)
Erick Lindgren bets 16,000
yoren8 has 15 seconds left to act
yoren8 has requested TIME
yoren8 ?

I think turn is an easy check, but feel free to comment on it. Your move on river? Assign Erick a river betting range.

[Bond18]

I like call pre flop. Flop i bet/call 7k

[ZJ123]

call river.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
how close is this to the bubble? lindgren might c/r all in for the fun of it if you bet 6-7k ish

[/ QUOTE ]

Bubble burst already, probably 40 players or so left.

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
Your move on river? Assign Erick a river betting range.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could have absolutely anything, you bet less than 1/2 the pot on a board with a flush draw and 2 high cards when 3 people checked to you on the flop, then checked behind on the turn, you look weak to him. I think anyone who thinks he can put Erick on any type of range here at all is kidding himself. Call.

[topherh82]

I personally dont like the flop bet size and the turn check. As stated i bet more on the flop, and the turn I think I continue to take the lead. What range are you putting him on that you check the turn? He shows up with a 6 here next to never, and only two Ax combos have you beat. By checking the turn you are leaving yourself a hard river decision. Get it in on turn

[Ansky]

bet the turn hyachahcahcahcahcahcahchachcha

[nath]

1)bet the turn
2)I might not push PF but I would definitely make a committing reraise. I don't care about this "Stacks are awkward" stuff, I have a great hand and a great opportunity to pick up a sizable pot without showdown, and AQs is really not in bad shape if someone decides to put it in. I'm totally fine with the money going to the center.

[uclabruinz]

Ansky, can you explain why you would bet the turn?

I like the line (I would bet 7k on flop), call the river obviously.

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, can you explain why you would bet the turn?

I like the line (I would bet 7k on flop), call the river obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

because i think we either have him crushed or we are freerolling, and i do not think he is folding an ace now, but he might if a diamond rivered.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, can you explain why you would bet the turn?

I like the line (I would bet 7k on flop), call the river obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

because i think we either have him crushed or we are freerolling, and i do not think he is folding an ace now, but he might if a diamond rivered.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really see him taking this line with an ace? Seems odd. Seems like a draw is more likely, and if that's the case we want him to hit it or bluff the river.

[Bakes]

or, he could call off more chips on the turn chasing it?

[Ansky]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, can you explain why you would bet the turn?

I like the line (I would bet 7k on flop), call the river obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

because i think we either have him crushed or we are freerolling, and i do not think he is folding an ace now, but he might if a diamond rivered.

[/ QUOTE ]

You really see him taking this line with an ace? Seems odd. Seems like a draw is more likely, and if that's the case we want him to hit it or bluff the river.

[/ QUOTE ]

i didnt say bet huge...

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
Ansky, can you explain why you would bet the turn?

I like the line (I would bet 7k on flop), call the river obviously.

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree w/ the "call the river obviously" part. Is lindgren valuebetting a worse hand ever? How often does he hold a bluff hand? I don't disagree that it's a call, but I don't think it's necessarily obvious.

[uclabruinz]

Okay, think about the river? My point is that I think it's a call, sorry should have left out the "obviously" part. It seemed obvious to me but perhaps it's closer then I first thought.

[Ansky]

river is close.

im guessing u are beating not much more than a bluff, as from my experience he would be turning a lot of his Ax hands into bluff catchers

[MLG]

I think river is a really tough decision, and spots like this are why betting the flop bigger/betting the turn, are important against opponents who aren't bad.

[ianisakson]

preflop call is fine, bet more on the flop 7-9k is best, Bet the turn too, you're still ahead of whatever his range is (even though he could have a set here and is looking to c/r the turn). As played I call the river, why not? He either missed a draw, has weaker A, set, or some strange hand he played bad.

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
I think river is a really tough decision, and spots like this are why betting the flop bigger/betting the turn, are important against opponents who aren't bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

MLG, what's your preferred flop bet size along w/ plan?

Given I bet 5k on flop, what's your preferred turn bet size?

[mikeJ]

And I agree that if I had bet 8k on flop and hand went down like this, I'd have a relatively easy river decision.

[Todd Terry]

Does anyone else agree that once the flop comes down you are never folding this hand on any street, under any circumstances, ever? (Unless it were live and he accidentally exposed that he had you crushed.)

[ZJ123]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else agree that once the flop comes down you are never folding this hand on any street, under any circumstances, ever? (Unless it were live and he accidentally exposed that he had you crushed.)

[/ QUOTE ]

NO

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
Does anyone else agree that once the flop comes down you are never folding this hand on any street, under any circumstances, ever? (Unless it were live and he accidentally exposed that he had you crushed.)

[/ QUOTE ]

yep, 2x psb behind on this flop and i can't imagine a line that is getting me to fold.

[d2themfi]

anybody like a flop shove?

As played I would def bet the turn, and the river is definitely a [censored] spot, just cause his range seems to be very polarized at that point, but you have to call cause ur postflop line looks super weak, and I think his range includes a lot more missed draws and bluffs then it does very strong hands like top two, or a straight

[uclabruinz]

Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

22+, ATo+, A2s+, connecting, one or two gapped diamonds

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.

as played call because (if ansky's right about PF being that wide) he can easily be trying to bluff you off a 'split'.

[uclabruinz]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.

as played call because (if ansky's right about PF being that wide) he can easily be trying to bluff you off a 'split'.

[/ QUOTE ]

I have a hard time seeing hands that beat us take the entire line (preflop included). For example, I talked to Ansky about this privately and one area of disagreement that we have is that he says Lindgren could have AT here. Doesn't AT seem like an awful preflop call?

[MLG]

ucla, he could def have it. hands that beat us that worry me...

56/76s. KQ w/1 diamond. AT/JT in no particular order. I dont think he bets many weak aces, i do think he could reverse float here sometimes intending to bet, or could have missed diamonds here.

[uclabruinz]

MLG, you seriously think he played any of those hands well? That's what I am getting at. I'm not saying he can't have any of those hands, I'm just saying I really wouldn't expect a very good player to play any of those hands in the manner they were played here.

[Todd Terry]

[ QUOTE ]
MLG, you seriously think he played any of those hands well? That's what I am getting at. I'm not saying he can't have any of those hands, I'm just saying I really wouldn't expect a very good player to play any of those hands in the manner they were played here.

[/ QUOTE ]

With AT, I would bet the flop. All of the other hands MLG listed I would probably play the way Lindgren played them. I think TT and 66 and maybe JJ would play the same way as well. For the reverse float hands, I just can't see folding to the small flop bet after everyone else folded and I have the bettor outchipped.

As far as the river bet, I think Lindgren's less likely to bet out if he has OP beat, because he has little reason to think he's getting called. At the same time, he has little reason to think OP will try to bet, since he checked behind on the river. Under those circumstances, whether to throw out a river bet that looks like a bluff is a toss-up.

[luckychewy]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.

as played call because (if ansky's right about PF being that wide) he can easily be trying to bluff you off a 'split'.

[/ QUOTE ]

if he's peeling flop real wide to a 5k bet and bluffing the river after turn goes chk chk how is betting 5k worse than checking, assuming we are going to call the river?

[mikeJ]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.


[/ QUOTE ]

A check is better than a 5k bet, because it might induce a bluff enough that we have a tough river decision?

That seems results oriented. I mean, if he had KQ/67, I want him to peel flop for 5k. Even if I pay off this river bet his flop call is still incorrect.

I agree the hand would've been a lot easier, and probably better played if I bet 7-8k on flop, but saying that a check is better than 5k doesn't seem right.

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.


[/ QUOTE ]

A check is better than a 5k bet, because it might induce a bluff enough that we have a tough river decision?

[/ QUOTE ]

no, 5K is bad because it doesn't narrow down his range at all while simultaneously not getting enough value vs whatever he's gonna decide to peel with in the first place.

like, if ansky's read is right, he might still peel with QJ and certainly peels any ace for 8K, so just go ahead and bet 8K. then call the river because the pot is big and your effective stacks are going to be right for him to bluff shove a lot, anyway.

the reason betting 5K makes this a tougher decision is because he's quite possibly actually bluffing this particular river/pot size less often.

[dumbndumb]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Can someone point me to a hand Erick's holding that would make his line plausible, assuming he is playing well and not dicking around?

[/ QUOTE ]

given our flop bet size, pretty much anything. I mean, I don't even like a flop check here but it sure beats a 5K bet, and this is why.

as played call because (if ansky's right about PF being that wide) he can easily be trying to bluff you off a 'split'.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know that much about EL, but I think this is a fold. Take a look at the hands that he has that could beat you and those that do not and think about what is more likely here.

The hands that beat you are a 6 with some kind of connector, pocket 6s, JJ (don't know how he plays and if he would always rr PF so I am assuming this is a possibility), A10, AJ, and KQ. Because of your small flop bet and turn check he could have stuck around with A10 or KQ. He my have AJ or a 6 and checked to you on the turn with the intent of CRAI. He knows by now that you do not have AJ and probably not AK given your turn check on that board (some may say this makes it more likely that you should call because it increases the chance he is bluffing), but I think it is easy for him to narrow your range here.

What if you look at the hand another way: What could he have that he has stuck around with that you beat? The only thing I can really see is a flush draw (and what flush draw calls in his position PF? K10?) or a J of some sort that he now thinks is no good and needs to bet to take the pot. He could have complete air, but I always thought EL was a reasonable player. Given the PF action and this flop/board he would really have to be f'ing around to have stuck around just to try to take the pot now.

I think I fold.

[dumbndumb]

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ucla, he could def have it. hands that beat us that worry me...

56/76s. KQ w/1 diamond. AT/JT in no particular order. I dont think he bets many weak aces, i do think he could reverse float here sometimes intending to bet, or could have missed diamonds here.

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MLG,

We should be delighted, not worried, if he has JT. DUCY?

[MLG]

lol, i r dumb about JT.

ucla,
the guy bet slightly more than 1/3 pot on the flop. i don't think i would seriously fault EDOG for calling with any of the hands i listed preflop or on the flop. I honestly think its only a small mistake at worst.