2/4 River Decision

[bennyk]

Strange river action. Villain is playing an average amount of hands and has been passive postflop. I have been in lots of hands recently and had to fold a couple rivers.

Thanks,
bk

Party Poker 2.00/4.00 Hold'em <font color="#0000FF">(10 handed)</font>

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q/images/graemlins/club.gif, Q/images/graemlins/spade.gif.
UTG calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, UTG+2 calls, <font color="#666666">1 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">3 folds</font>, SB calls, BB calls, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Flop: (11.00 SB) J/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 7/images/graemlins/spade.gif, 5/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(5 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+2 calls.

Turn: (7.00 BB) 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
UTG checks, UTG+2 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, UTG calls, UTG+2 folds.

River: (9.00 BB) T/images/graemlins/spade.gif <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">UTG bets</font>, Hero ???

[hero]

Well we're not folding so its call/raise. figure that he'd pop you on the turn or c/r the river if he has trip 7's. JT is my guess which we're ahead of. since you mentioned recently folding rivs maybe he's taking a shot but i'd say raise. 89 is the only draw that made it and i see that villian has odds to peel the flop with his gutshot but i dont think he'd make the unprofitable turn call with it.
We should raise and calldown a 3-bet. We're only behind TT/JJ/7x/55/89 which isnt enough to make me passive here.

[bennyk]

[ QUOTE ]
Well we're not folding so its call/raise.

[/ QUOTE ]

I need to be better about narrowing villain's range in situations like this.

[C-Dog]

I would just call, but I have no sack, and I take too many beats, with my luck the [censored] would table TT and scoop it up with his set.

C-Dog

[cassady]

I think it's a raise/fold here unless villian is a total maniac then it's raise/call.

edit: edited to remove dumb question......

[bennyk]

[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a raise/fold here unless villian is a total maniac then it's raise/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this. QQ is good enough that we must must must see a showdown. I would be very surprised if others are advocating R/F here.

FWIW my OP was basically to ask if people are raising here. Folding never entered my mind.

bk

[bigalt]

I can't conceive of a 3-bet that you're beating here, but perhaps I just don't have the imagination to keep up with some of these guys.

Trips aren't out of the question. I've seen a lot of players check/call, check/call, then lose their resolve and bet the river with big hands. Or he may have just been trying to keep the 3rd man in on the turn.

I think the most likely holdings, though, are a T or a straight. Being a puss and not having any clue how to assign probabilities to those hands I like a call.

[In Paradise]

It seems to me the only hand that he could have that you beat is J 10. Everything else has you crushed. But my read would be that there is a good chance he has J 10 (though I doubt you would post this hand if that is what he had).

I would just call.

[bennyk]

Villain tabled KJo and MHIG.

I called the river bet, even though it seemed weak, because I couldn't figure out what he could possibly be betting here. Like I mentioned above, getting to a showdown seemed like the best option.

bk

[Nick Royale]

Just call and hope he's not holding 98/7x, but something like JT.

[Elevens]

Raise, fold to a 3-bet.

[Elevens]

[ QUOTE ]
QQ is good enough that we must must must see a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this your general philosophy or just for this particular hand?

[bobhalford]

I'm not a big fan of this "raise/fold to a 3-bet" line that I keep seeing given as advice on this forum. Villain could easily have JT, and if he's feeling frisky he could 3-bet you....you fold and then freak out when he shows you JT. I just like a call here, or if you want to raise, call the 3-bet. I will raise and fold to a re-raise occasionally when I feel it's the perfect spot for this play. This situation is not one of those.

Villain may have figured this to be a WA/WB line and played it like a 2+2-er, calling on the flop and turn and then betting the river, folding if raised.

[icepick]

[ QUOTE ]
I would just call, but I have no sack, and I take too many beats, with my luck the [censored] would table TT and scoop it up with his set.

[/ QUOTE ]

[gopnik]

just call it. If he's bluffing he won't call your raise. If he has a monster he'll 3 bet you.

[callmedonnie]

[ QUOTE ]
89 is the only draw that made it and i see that villian has odds to peel the flop with his gutshot but i dont think he'd make the unprofitable turn call with it...

[/ QUOTE ]

89 has a double belly buster, so it is open ended. I would raise and call.

[bennyk]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
QQ is good enough that we must must must see a showdown.

[/ QUOTE ]

Is this your general philosophy or just for this particular hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Uh, I'm definitely not seeing a showdown with all my QQ hands /images/graemlins/tongue.gif

For this hand, it seemed prudent to see the showdown since Villain had been so passive, but I certainly wasn't sure enough to fold that he wasn't doing something wacky.

bk

[C-Dog]

I try to make it a pretty solid rule that seeing showdowns with Overpairs in a limit game is good.

C-Dog

[hero]

i think that bob makes a really good point about folding to the 3-bet, in this case the information gained isn't always that we're crushed and its an easy fold. thanks to donnie for pointing out that 89 could be a real possibility as its open. i'm now feeling that its a mix between calling and raising as it could've really been strength not wanting to be checked behind but the donks such an odd move. figure that the made straight would've c/r the river since you're always betting here. good hand-

[cassady]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I think it's a raise/fold here unless villian is a total maniac then it's raise/call.

[/ QUOTE ]

I strongly disagree with this. QQ is good enough that we must must must see a showdown. I would be very surprised if others are advocating R/F here.

FWIW my OP was basically to ask if people are raising here. Folding never entered my mind.


[/ QUOTE ]

Given a paired board and the action with the donk-bet on the river, what could a reasonable villian possibly 3-bet here that we beat?

[TheHammer24]

I actually like the raise fold to a 3-Bet line, although I never have the guts to do it. I always call the 3-Bet and spew the extra BB.

[GMan42]

One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet is that villain may be playing a WA/WB line here, in which case he's probably folding to your river raise anyway. That may tilt this in favor of a call, since raising likely loses 2BB when behind, but gains nothing extra when ahead.

[bobhalford]

[ QUOTE ]
One thing I haven't seen mentioned yet is that villain may be playing a WA/WB line here

[/ QUOTE ]

Did you miss my post above?

I doubt Villain has 89 very often here and if this is how he plays a 7, then you'll get your money back shortly anyway. I think he hit a better 2-pair on the river (JTs) and thinks he is value betting against a KJ or AJ. I easily raise this river and am prepared to call a reraise (this is, after all, 2/4).

[ QUOTE ]
I'm not a big fan of this "raise/fold to a 3-bet" line that I keep seeing given as advice on this forum. Villain could easily have JT, and if he's feeling frisky he could 3-bet you....you fold and then freak out when he shows you JT.

[/ QUOTE ]

Finally... someone else said it. Look, if you're going to FOLD to a 3-bet, then don't throw in the damn raise in the first place.

[bennyk]

This is great advice, thanks all.

C-Dog: I get what you're saying, obviously showing down overpairs is good. I was mostly kidding since it's not uncommon to have to lay them down, also.

bob, Gman: I think this is spot on. It seems cautious, but I think just calling is best here. I could probably find a raise with a better read, or against a trickier opponent.

For those of you who are raise/calling here all the time: How often do you think we're ahead when villain 3-bets? This seems like a bad situation to be in, but it's 4BB's, so it's going to have a big impact on the bottom line, either way... ALSO, how much do you think this changes with limits, i.e., Kramer, you said you'd raise/call because it's 2/4, but maybe that should be more of an adjustment than a standard play. Does that make sense?

[TStoneMBD]

raise and fold to a 3bet

[deleteduser]

[ QUOTE ]
just call it. If he's bluffing he won't call your raise. If he has a monster he'll 3 bet you.

[/ QUOTE ]

i think this is the correct answer!