B&M 5-10 do I understand the SSHE concepts right

[argybargy2002]

Table is full of loose passives, with one aggressive player to my right. I am on mega tilt, which explains why I am in the hand to begin with. Therefore please ignore the obvious preflop mistake (imagine I was a poster in the CO)However I think I played this correctly postflop but I got a lot of raised eyebrows.

Hero in CO with T2s (diamonds)

3 limps, I call, Button raises, SB and BB call, limpers and I call.

Flop (12sb) 345r with one diamond.

All check to button who bets, 3 callers, I raise.

My rationale here is that I have an oesd and a backdoor flush draw so I have about 9 outs, plus maybe 1 for my T giving me lots of equity.

This is clearly not a free card manouevre as the pfr is after me. Is this a move you guys would do or is it an example of me steaming?

[jrz1972]

Looks good to me. Standard value-raise.

[SeaEagle]

You played it great.

You have more than 20% equity in the hand so your raise is a value raise. For what it's worth, you also get some free card value out of this. Your raise makes the 3 players in front of you more likely to check. The PFR will check the turn through a lot because he has two overs and is happy to see a free river or he he's got a middling hand and doesn't want to bet your hand for you.

[KurtSF]

No, I call.

You have the concept right. Letting everyone call around before you c/r infront if the orriginal raiser and make everyone call one more. But I want more eauity than this to make this play. Like OESD + FD (if there were 2 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif on the flop), or made stright (A2 or 67), or top pair and the good end of the straight (56), or something like that.

In this case I think its an easy call, as you certainly have odds to draw, but I don't think you have enough equity to raise. If you know for certain that you won't be 3-bet anywhere and that everyone will come along, then maybe. You have no fold equity because you have no hand, and if anyone drops out their equity goes to someone other than you.

$0.02

[KurtSF]

Seems I may have the concept wrong.

I only count like 7 outs here. You certainly can't give the four 6's full value. Not with 6 villians. The four A's are probably good, but may verry well split the pot. Weak backdoor flushdraw... one out. Maybe 1 or 1.5 for the three T's. I don't see more than 6 or 7 full outs here, and your hand is worthless without hitting them. I don't see the equity y'all are seeing.

Am I wrong?

[Ricks]

You are over-counting your outs.

You have to subtract outs for your OESD because:

1) One of the cards is to the idiot end of the str8.
2) Neither of the cards gives you the nut str8.
3) Only one card in your hand is being used which makes it more likely that you will have to split the pot.


Your BDFD is to the 5th nut flush so I would not give it a full out.

Your T may be worth one out but, against 5 opponents, that would not give me great comfort.

I think the whole hand is worth around 7 outs which would still have enough equity to raise.

Edit: fixed spelling

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]

I think the whole hand is worth around 7 outs which would still have enough equity to raise.


[/ QUOTE ]

Got maths on this? My gut says no. I'd love to be proven wrong.

[JojoDiego]

I think the flop c/r is iffy because the draw is dirty.

What about betting into the PFR to possibly clean up the T, BDFD and straight outs? The pot's already big--should we try to maximize our chance of winning it?

[argybargy2002]

[ QUOTE ]

What about betting into the PFR to possibly clean up the T, BDFD and straight outs? The pot's already big--should we try to maximize our chance of winning it?


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I was thinking that one reason the checkraise may be a little iffy because the pfr might 3 bet and knock a few people out, decreasing my win if I catch. However from what you are saying this can be a benefit as well.

Is a $60 pot in 5-10 one that I should focus on winning in the way you suggest?

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
Got maths on this? My gut says no. I'd love to be proven wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]
With 5 players in, you'll need to win this pot more than 20% of the time to make the raise +EV. Since hero knows he's going to see the river, he needs about 5 outs to justify the raise on pure equity.

There is a chance that the PFR will 3 bet and people will fold, hurting hero's equity, but this is roughly balanced by the increased chance that the turn will get checked around.

FWIW, I give hero about 6 outs here. 3.5 for the A's which are almost always good; 1.5 for the BDFD; 1 for the 6's which have RIO due to killing the action when ahead and paying off when behind.

[SeaEagle]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

What about betting into the PFR to possibly clean up the T, BDFD and straight outs? The pot's already big--should we try to maximize our chance of winning it?


[/ QUOTE ]

Interesting. I was thinking that one reason the checkraise may be a little iffy because the pfr might 3 bet and knock a few people out, decreasing my win if I catch. However from what you are saying this can be a benefit as well.

Is a $60 pot in 5-10 one that I should focus on winning in the way you suggest?

[/ QUOTE ]

Knocking people out is not good here (except for those with Tx). You have almost no chance of winning this pot unimproved, so you'd like to keep people in to pay you off if you do improve.

[bernie]

Steaming.

No, I wouldn't do that move.

You have the ass end of a 4 card str8 draw which can isn't as strong since many limped in which increases the possibility that you could see a higher str8. You can't really like a 6 hitting. Not to mention, if you hit your T, your kicker really sucks.

If you had T6s, I might like it a little more. But not alot.

Take a break.

b

[KurtSF]

OK, tried to look at it numbers-wise.

Eleven cards on the turn give you a "made" hand. Any of the 4 aces, 4 sixes, or 3 tens.

So there are 36 cards that leave you drawing. Any 2 or 7 (not 7/images/graemlins/diamond.gif, 6 cards) is a disaster. The board could pair without a flushdraw which would leave you in bad shape (6 cards). There are 9 non-/images/graemlins/diamond.gif overcards which basically make your T worthless. On the flipside any diamond makes you a nice draw. On the average I see you drawing to 5.5 outs if one of these 36 "blanks" fall.

And now let's look at the "made" hands. 3 of the hits give you top-pair/no-kicker. Without a kicker and with tons of redraws against you this is hand has hugge RIO. Three of the 6's give you the idiot end of a one-card stright with no further draws. So 6 of the so called outs set you up for a big loser. The 3 non-/images/graemlins/diamond.gif aces give you a decent one card stright, a good hand but still susceptable to redraws. The 6/images/graemlins/diamond.gif gives you a weak made striaght and a FD, an OK hand. And one, and only one, card in the deck is really and truly "good", the A/images/graemlins/diamond.gif gives you a decent straight and a FD.

So (1) 76.6% of the time you will be drawing to an average of 5.5 outs.
(2) 12.8% of the time you will have a weak hand with significant reverse implied odds.
And (3) 10.6% of the time you will have an "OK" hand or better.

Prorate these outcomes for how likely they are, and back up to how much equity they give you on the flop, I only get about 9% equity from (1), maybe about 5% from (3), and maybe 3% from (2). I don't see how Hero has any more than 17% equity in this pot, plus the significant chance of a reverse implied odds situation, plus the non-negligable chance for a split pot...

I don't see a raise here as having any positive expected value. Just call and make a decision based on what the turn brings.

Am I wrong?

[somapopper]

[ QUOTE ]

If you had T6s, I might like it a little more. But not alot.

Take a break.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with doing this with 10 6s?

[bernie]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

If you had T6s, I might like it a little more. But not alot.

Take a break.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

What's wrong with doing this with 10 6s?

[/ QUOTE ]

I might try it with T6. It's alot closer than with T2, imo.

It's still only a 1 card str8. When people limp preflop, lower cards on the board can hit more possible hands along with some of your outs being in those hands. The chance is greater(not earthshatteringly, but something to be aware of) that you can hit your hand and still lose. Which is why if you hit your hand, and there's significant action, you may have to reevaluate and possibly dump it. (Very player dependent when dumping)

b

[jjshabado]

I like it. I like it even more because if an A comes you're likely to get action, and win.