Autopush, right?

[mack848]

Just checking.

Party $25 full

Villains are standard SLPassives. Effective stacks are $25


Hero has A /images/graemlins/spade.gif J /images/graemlins/spade.gif

2 MP limps, SB completes, Hero raises to $1.75, 1 MP caller

Flop is 5 /images/graemlins/spade.gif 6 /images/graemlins/diamond.gif 8 /images/graemlins/spade.gif

Hero bets $3, Villain raises to $7, Hero ?

[BadMoon]

We probably have very little fold equity here. Any reads on villain? He made a small raise of your cbet, which could mean a lot of things: set, str8, 2pair, worse fd, TP, small overpair. You didn't mention which MP called, the first limper or second. The second limper generally has a wider range of hands. Since we have pretty good equity against a wide range, I push and take note of what he shows down.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
We probably have very little fold equity here. Any reads on villain? He made a small raise of your cbet, which could mean a lot of things: set, str8, 2pair, worse fd, TP, small overpair. You didn't mention which MP called, the first limper or second. The second limper generally has a wider range of hands. Since we have pretty good equity against a wide range, I push and take note of what he shows down.

[/ QUOTE ]

Sorry dude but this is bad advice. I don't know how you came to the conclusion that we have good equity versus his range, because we don't. His range really isn't as wide as you think - he's raised us here which without reads basically ALWAYS means 2pr+. At higher levels particularly on this board this can be done with some kind of draw, but its pretty unlikely at 25nl. Our hero currently has ace high, no showdown value and 9 outs to improve (given that another ace may still put us behind two pair). Here's what pokerstove says...


Board: 5s 8s 6d
Dead:

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 33.6573 % 32.76% 00.90% { AsJs }
Hand 2: 66.3427 % 65.44% 00.90% { 88, 66-55, Ad8d, Ks4s, 86s-85s, 86o-85o }

That range is: Sets, two pairs, and a lower flush thrown in for optimism, as well as a weak TPTK holding. As you can see we are about 2:1 against to win here with two cards to come - not brilliant. Consider also that we have next to no FE, and this makes it a pretty easy fold.

It might be thin +EV to flat call here but I'm getting away. As a general rule with pushing draws, IMO it is best to have a combination draw or have a piece of the board before you push. Naked FD's are definitely -EV to be pushing with no FE.

[mack848]

Thanks Ama

My thinking when this happened was, initially, that I had 9-15 outs and that, given the dead money, it could well be a push.

After a little thought, I folded. My reasoning was that I had almost no fold equity vs. hands thats that are usually played this way - 2pair+ and only 9 outs.

Coming from Limit, I still find pushing a difficult thing to do and often 'bottle out' and call before I time out, when callng is probably the worst option. I really have not yet sorted out in my mind where a hand crosses the line between a fold or call and a push. Post flop raises at NL$25 full are soo rarely bluffs or draws that FE is often extremely small and I usually feel that I need 13 outs or more before pushing.

[ama0330]

Good fold.

Generally if I am going to push on a draw I need to make sure that the draw is strong enough to survive up against at least two pair. This usually means a hand that, unimproved, will STILL have showdown value. Had you an ace on the board in your hand, it becomes quite an easy push because even against two pair type holdings you can win with a counterfeit pair on the board.

I would prefer that you had a healthy scepticism as to getting your stack in the middle as opposed to pushing everything all over the place, as it is rarely correct to commit your stack to an ace high holding. You will see in the high stakes forums that many many holdings are pushed in the middle even though it seems to be marginal at best, but it is incorrect to assume that because it works up there it works down here. There are many sublevels of thinking involved in 200nl+ that don't concern us.

In short, save your pushes for when you've got something solid.

[SABR42]

Fold to the flop raise?

Is that a joke?

If you think you have zero FE, then just call the raise and try to stack him on a spade turn. His tiny flop raise is giving you good implied odds.

[kslghost]

...Nut flush draw with two overs... Folded for 4 dollars into a 13/14 dollar pot... This is horrible.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
...Nut flush draw with two overs... Folded for 4 dollars into a 13/14 dollar pot... This is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think you have two overs?

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
...Nut flush draw with two overs... Folded for 4 dollars into a 13/14 dollar pot... This is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

What makes you think you have two overs?

[/ QUOTE ]

Hero's overcard outs obviously aren't good 100% of the time, but it's silly to assume that they're good 0% of the time. They're obviously worth something.

This is an EASY flop call. Villain mini-raised the flop and you have the NUT draw. Folding is absurd.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
Fold to the flop raise?

Is that a joke?

If you think you have zero FE, then just call the raise and try to stack him on a spade turn. His tiny flop raise is giving you good implied odds.

[/ QUOTE ]

[ QUOTE ]
...Nut flush draw with two overs... Folded for 4 dollars into a 13/14 dollar pot... This is horrible.

[/ QUOTE ]

Pot = $14, and its $4 to play giving immediate odds of 3.5:1. With one card to come we have no more than 9 outs needing 4:1 to hit one of our spades, therefore a call here is -EV.

People - we DON'T have two overs. Our ace is dead!

[kslghost]

It's not even that we need the two overs, and do you really think this near min raise indicates two pair and such every time? It's a 7, a weaker flush draw, a pair and straight draw (87) and so many other hands. The range is huge, and narrowing it down to hands that whoop our ass is a bad idea.

And even as such, we're getting 3.5 to 1 at least, which gives us near straight odds to draw to a pure flush anyways. Folding here is just bad. If the guy had raised to llike 15 giving us no implied odds, then we can talk.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
It's not even that we need the two overs, and do you really think this near min raise indicates two pair and such every time? It's a 7, a weaker flush draw, a pair and straight draw (87) and so many other hands. The range is huge, and narrowing it down to hands that whoop our ass is a bad idea.

And even as such, we're getting 3.5 to 1 at least, which gives us near straight odds to draw to a pure flush anyways. Folding here is just bad. If the guy had raised to llike 15 giving us no implied odds, then we can talk.

[/ QUOTE ]

I guess it comes down to the read and I totally disagree that this is a nothing hand. What happens if you call the flop and the turn is a red ace, and villain pushes?

[ QUOTE ]
And even as such, we're getting 3.5 to 1 at least, which gives us near straight odds to draw to a pure flush anyways.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yeah but its still -EV isn't it...

[kslghost]

Our ace is not dead... wow. It's not 3 outs, no, but it's not 0. And saying 3.5:1 COMPLETELY ignores any implied odds. If you think this call is -EV... I just don't know what to say.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
Pot = $14, and its $4 to play giving immediate odds of 3.5:1. With one card to come we have no more than 9 outs needing 4:1 to hit one of our spades, therefore a call here is -EV.

People - we DON'T have two overs. Our ace is dead!

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, this is just terrible.

Villain is giving us immediate odds of 3.5:1 and you want to fold a freakin nut flush draw?

If villain does have two pair or better (which I don't necesarily agree with), you stand to win a ton of money if you spike a spade on the turn. Implied odds, come on...

[kslghost]

He'd be pushing ~16 into 18 and we'd have a nut flush draw with TPGK... that's a much more difficult decision and I'd make my decision based entirely on what I think of villain. It's call more times than you may think is correct.

[ama0330]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Pot = $14, and its $4 to play giving immediate odds of 3.5:1. With one card to come we have no more than 9 outs needing 4:1 to hit one of our spades, therefore a call here is -EV.

People - we DON'T have two overs. Our ace is dead!

[/ QUOTE ]
Wow, this is just terrible.

Villain is giving us immediate odds of 3.5:1 and you want to fold a freakin nut flush draw?

If villain does have two pair or better (which I don't necesarily agree with), you stand to win a ton of money if you spike a spade on the turn. Implied odds, come on...

[/ QUOTE ]

You magically look through villains hole cards to see two pair. Call?

[Vammakala]

ama: You're assuming you don't have any implied odds at all against a random NL25 donk? The opponent is an LP donk who almost minraises.

You absolutely HAVE to call this. Say he has a set, he's not folding to a turn bet in hopes to hit a boat. And you already stoved the equity against his range of hands and you have odds to draw against that range.

You were the preflop raiser so he's not sure to respect your flush bet anyway. Add in that the board looks like so that, a lot of cards can come that buy you a free rivercard as well.

If you only play with immediate odds, you'll be missing a lot of value on draws on this level - even flushdraws which generally have less implied odds than for example straightdraws.

[Vammakala]

[ QUOTE ]

You magically look through villains hole cards to see two pair. Call?

[/ QUOTE ]

Okay dood. The point of him having two pair or better gives better implied odds for you. If he in fact has worse hand, such as A8, then you have more outs. Either way, call is good. I don't like a raise unless this guy has been aggressive on flop since most of these people are in fact LP players who will value bet too weak (giving you good odds), won't bet at all and/or will pay you off when you hit your flush.

[kslghost]

Even if he has two pair, yes, we call. Because if a spade came, we'd take his whole stack. We'd be risking 4 to win like 14+16 more (- the equity from when he boats, but that'll still be something like 25 for the 4 we risked).

The only way I'd fold if I saw his cards might be if he had a set, but I'd have to do the calculations to check that, and it's quite pointless to do so.

[SABR42]

[ QUOTE ]
You magically look through villains hole cards to see two pair. Call?

[/ QUOTE ]
Let me put it this way:

I WANT the villain to have two pair when I call his raise. You do know about implied odds right?

I make a good portion of my profit at SSNL from donks who don't charge me enough to draw, and then pay off after I hit.

If villain has a weak hand, he probably won't pay off a lot when we hit the flush. But if villain does have a weak hand, our overcard outs are good so either way it's an easy call.

[4_2_it]

Call the min-raise and re-evaluate on the turn. Folding here is bad. Villain's range includes hands that hero has some equity against. A set is the only hand we fear and villain did not raise enough to protect a set here.

[ama0330]

I never said a call wasn't good, I said it was marginal, which it is. I generally avoid chasing flushes when the pot doesn't offer the correct odds because in my experience, you're not guaranteed to get paid off. My argument is not that this play is incorrect, it't that its speculatively +EV, probably closer to neutral, which is what I said in my original reply.

The title of the thread is "autopush", to which I think we agree the answer is "no", and I'm arguing that read depedency makes this call speculative also. The fact that OP has told us that villains are standard SLP means that when they raise like this, personally I automatically narrow their range, and I've shown myself to be right most of the time.

Who knows, maybe I'm too tight. Probably.

EDIT: If 4_2_it likes a call, then call, people. Thread over lol

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: If 4_2_it likes a call, then call, people. Thread over lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been known to be wrong in the past.......

Without a read, I think a call is pretty standard. Now if the turn blanks, I am very hesitant to check call without pot odds because now you hand looks like a draw and even the biggest donks at NL$5 can read a flush board.

[ama0330]

Given that the turn blanking is the most likely scenario, and given that we are OOP, whats the plan? Say turn is total brick. CRai?

[Absolution]

Check fold every time. We are calling the flop to try and hit our flush and stack him (at least from what I've read in this thread - originally I was thinking it was closer to a fold like you.) I think the turn only becomes difficult when we pair up because then we face an inevitable turn bet, but against a LP I think it's still a fold there unless he makes a minbet.

[ChipStorm]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: If 4_2_it likes a call, then call, people. Thread over lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been known to be wrong in the past.......

Without a read, I think a call is pretty standard. Now if the turn blanks, I am very hesitant to check call without pot odds because now you hand looks like a draw and even the biggest donks at NL$5 can read a flush board.

[/ QUOTE ]
4_2_it,

I agree a call is standard; you're getting 3.5:1 direct and only need an average of $6 more from villain when you hit a flush. At 25NL I'd expect to average substantially more than this, given villain's flop raise indicates that he likes his hand.

But out of curiosity, does your answer change for 200NL? You need the implied odds to play here. Does your answer change vs. players who are a little more astute at reading lines and laying down hands? I haven't gotten that high yet....

[ticks]

[ QUOTE ]
Given that the turn blanking is the most likely scenario, and given that we are OOP, whats the plan? Say turn is total brick. CRai?

[/ QUOTE ]

Check call if he gives you good pot+implied odds,
fold if he doesnt.
It's as easy as that.

[4_2_it]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

EDIT: If 4_2_it likes a call, then call, people. Thread over lol

[/ QUOTE ]

I have been known to be wrong in the past.......

Without a read, I think a call is pretty standard. Now if the turn blanks, I am very hesitant to check call without pot odds because now you hand looks like a draw and even the biggest donks at NL$5 can read a flush board.

[/ QUOTE ]
4_2_it,

I agree a call is standard; you're getting 3.5:1 direct and only need an average of $6 more from villain when you hit a flush. At 25NL I'd expect to average substantially more than this, given villain's flop raise indicates that he likes his hand.

But out of curiosity, does your answer change for 200NL? You need the implied odds to play here. Does your answer change vs. players who are a little more astute at reading lines and laying down hands? I haven't gotten that high yet....

[/ QUOTE ]

My standard line OOP against an unknown is to not get too fancy. I most likely am not stacking him if I hit my draw so I need the pot to be laying me decent (but not perfect) odds to continue.

I think the biggest difference at NL$200 is that position becomes much more important and being OOP with only a draw without a solid read is not usually a very profitable place to be.


Ama ---- I agree with Ticks on the answer to your follow-up.

[berent]

I'd put the villain on 2p, set, straight or combodraw, so no folding equity. He limps preflop, which usually means a drawy hand on these limits. I think a call will be good here, if you hit your flush you're probably getting alot of action which justifies a call.

[kurto]

Everyone is definitely giving villain too much credit to say he would only have 2 pair or better.

OP made a continuation bet... a lot of villains will raise a continuation bet with a lot of hands. If I had a pair of 10s here I'd raise the PFraiser sometimes. If I had 67suited I might raise the OP.

I would call the little raise.

[vulturesrow]

Just to join the chorus, autopush, not at all. Definitely worth a call though IMO.

[mack848]

[ QUOTE ]
Just to join the chorus, autopush, not at all. Definitely worth a call though IMO.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks guys.

I assume that this becomes a clear fold if the flop raise was to $10 or so?

[JackAll]

A lot of people "raise for information here" with A8/99/TT, and plenty of people do this with draws like 57/67/77/87//images/graemlins/spade.gif/images/graemlins/spade.gif. To put him on definite 2pr plus is a bad assumption.

Lets say he has 2pr+ half the time (guestimate 1).


Case 1: He has 2pr+, then we have no FE and win 1/3 of the time.

Lost $20 2/3 of the time. win $30 1/3 of the time. Total -$4.66


Case 2: He doesn't have 2pr+ and will fold to a 3b push maybe 2/3 of the time (guestimate 2).

He folds and we win $14 2/3 of the time. He calls and we win $10 1/3 of the time (lose 20 half the time win 30 the other half). Total +12.66


Overall this gives us a win of $8.
Folding gives us a win of $0


Going by my estimates, a push is standard.

Feel free to play with the two estimates and see what you come up with. I would be interested to see what other say here.

[gimmetheloot]

Ama, I read to where you said our ace was dead and hit reply. What has gone on since, I dont know.

How you can tell this man that he made a good fold is boggling my mind. I think your range for villain, is too tight. He can have a ton of draws, a ton of TPXK hands, a ton of stuff. MY raising range on the flop is wider than the range you gave, and I am a tight ass. Overpairs? Pair+gutshot hands?

Why you are claiming we have no overcards is also beyond me. If our ace is dead, our jack is likely live. We have a minimum of 9 outs, getting 3.5:1, needing 4.2:1 to break even. Yeah, the call in vacuum is slightly -EV, but we have IMPLIED ODDS. Villain is not folding many of his hands for 1 more bet if the flush card hits, especially since we bet out on the flop.

This is never, ever a fold. You can argue calling and pushing all day, but this is never, ever a fold. OP...I think we have at least 12 clean outs here, and even with no FE, a push is fine. With a little, its great. We may be uncertain how to go if we hit a J or something on the turn, and may still end up folding the best hand somehow. (OK, never, but w/e).

I push because we are OOP as I read the hand, I dont remember though, and I dont like playing big draws OOP on blanked turns, or even hit turns, so I just push now.