Flop two pair, but strong raise on the turn : (

[Tooty816]

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool (http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php) from FlopTurnRiver.com (http://www.flopturnriver.com) (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($60.85)
SB ($56.41)
BB ($27.10)
Hero ($49.73)
MP ($41.87)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with J/images/graemlins/club.gif, K/images/graemlins/heart.gif. SB posts a blind of $0.25.
<font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $1.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button calls $1.25, SB (poster) calls $1, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>.

Flop: ($4.25) J/images/graemlins/spade.gif, K/images/graemlins/club.gif, A/images/graemlins/heart.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $1</font>, Button calls $1, SB calls $1.

Turn: ($7.25) 4/images/graemlins/club.gif <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font>
SB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $9</font>, SB folds, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $19.25


No reads on the guy. I folded because I will probably face a large river bet. I might be up against AK, AJ, A4, 44, JJ, or even KK AA. He probably wouldn't have raised me with Ax and the only hands I beat that he could have raised me with is K4 or J4.

What do you guys think?

[aces_dad]

You're probably not against AA/KK very few people just cc pf here especially not closing the action.

Your bet size is too small, if you bet say 6 and got raised to 18 I'd like the fold more.

[Dunkman]

I agree, you're bet sizes are begging to be raised. There are certainly situations where I'd raise someone making weak bets like that with most anything. On the flop you have a good but vulnerable hand, you absolutely have to bet the pot.

[redCashion]

The only hands to be afraid of here is Q10 and KQ IMO. But I agree, you don't really know where you are since you are reading very weak with the bet sizes. Try betting 3/4 of the pot as a general rule, more if you see draws out there.

[Happy Time Harry]

A flop bet this weak is just asking the villain to float, then bet (if checked to) or raise (especially since you bet a blankish turn pretty weak). Your flop bet lead to this tough decision.

[Tooty816]

So I should have bet maybe $3-$4 on the flop, and plan to bet 3/4 to full pot sized bets on the turn and river?

The bets would get huge! If I bet 3 on the flop and get called, that makes a pot of $13 on the turn, and then I'd have to bet $10-13 on the turn? The guy could be slowplaying me and raise me after I make another huge river bet.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]
So I should have bet maybe $3-$4 on the flop, and plan to bet 3/4 to full pot sized bets on the turn and river?

The bets would get huge! If I bet 3 on the flop and get called, that makes a pot of $13 on the turn, and then I'd have to bet $10-13 on the turn? The guy could be slowplaying me and raise me after I make another huge river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

He could be slowplaying you, and that happens to aggressive players sometimes. More likely, however, villain has one pair or a draw and a pair, and calls you down the whole way.

I would bet 3-4 on the flop here and 11ish on the turn. Reevaluate once the river comes.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
So I should have bet maybe $3-$4 on the flop, and plan to bet 3/4 to full pot sized bets on the turn and river?

The bets would get huge! If I bet 3 on the flop and get called, that makes a pot of $13 on the turn, and then I'd have to bet $10-13 on the turn? The guy could be slowplaying me and raise me after I make another huge river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You WANT pots to be big when you have the best hand.
You WANT opponents to have hard decisions
You WANT opponent's responses to be pure expressions of strength or weakness, so that you can tell what they mean.

Here, you have no idea.

Three dollars is a barely adequate flop bet. One is a joke. I'd put 4 in there with any cards I raised with, regardless of whether I'd hit the flop.

And with no resistance, another 8 on the turn.

If that seems like a big bet to you, you have no business playing 50NL.

You've also made a mistake is raising KJo for a dopey 2.5BB pot sweetener type bet UTG. Make it 2, or better, 2.5 to compensate for being OOP, or still yet better, fold.

[jakeduke]

[ QUOTE ]

If that seems like a big bet to you, you have no business playing 50NL.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is very true. If you're thinking "ZOMG 10 bucks w/ this hand?!?!" you should probably move down until you're comfy with the monetary aspect of things. Don't be scared money.

[PocketElevens]

What size is your bankroll?

This could be part of the problem if you're not confortable with big bets.

[Sh@i'tan]

W
t
f

is PF? Raise at least 4xBB PF especially since your UTG, bet at least 3.50 on the flop, and the turn is MUCH different if you made actual bets on flop/turn. As played i'm not sure, i don't think calling and ch/calling river is horrible here + i'm a station.

[Tooty816]

My bankroll isn't great. I have a total of $44 /images/graemlins/blush.gif

What is the typical amount of bankroll I should have for each level? Is it 20 buyins? How much should I expect to fluctuate on average?

[Antinome]

You can afford to play .02/.04 games. That's about it.

When we talk about variance, it isn't just a word. It is the square of standard deviation. The square. Like the kinetic energy of a car crashing into a wall at 60mph is four times bigger than the energy crashing into the wall at 30mph. That kind of square. And right now you are going 100mph aimed directly at the wall of Busto City.

[gimmetheloot]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I should have bet maybe $3-$4 on the flop, and plan to bet 3/4 to full pot sized bets on the turn and river?

The bets would get huge! If I bet 3 on the flop and get called, that makes a pot of $13 on the turn, and then I'd have to bet $10-13 on the turn? The guy could be slowplaying me and raise me after I make another huge river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You WANT pots to be big when you have the best hand.
You WANT opponents to have hard decisions
You WANT opponent's responses to be pure expressions of strength or weakness, so that you can tell what they mean.

Here, you have no idea.

Three dollars is a barely adequate flop bet. One is a joke. I'd put 4 in there with any cards I raised with, regardless of whether I'd hit the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the top part of this, but not the bottom at all. Im not firing into this board with two opponents when I miss. No sir. If you missed this board, chances are at least one of the other 2 people hit it, and hcances are they arent going anywhere without at least 2 barrels.

[Antinome]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
So I should have bet maybe $3-$4 on the flop, and plan to bet 3/4 to full pot sized bets on the turn and river?

The bets would get huge! If I bet 3 on the flop and get called, that makes a pot of $13 on the turn, and then I'd have to bet $10-13 on the turn? The guy could be slowplaying me and raise me after I make another huge river bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

You WANT pots to be big when you have the best hand.
You WANT opponents to have hard decisions
You WANT opponent's responses to be pure expressions of strength or weakness, so that you can tell what they mean.

Here, you have no idea.

Three dollars is a barely adequate flop bet. One is a joke. I'd put 4 in there with any cards I raised with, regardless of whether I'd hit the flop.

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree with the top part of this, but not the bottom at all. Im not firing into this board with two opponents when I miss. No sir. If you missed this board, chances are at least one of the other 2 people hit it, and hcances are they arent going anywhere without at least 2 barrels.

[/ QUOTE ]

You don't have two opponents after you make a real preflop raise. If you do, eh, OK, maybe you let it go sometimes.

[gimmetheloot]

Im not trying to argue sir /images/graemlins/wink.gif I just dont want him to get in the state of 'raised preflop, must cbet' when he has missed and it is a board that nails the ranges of preflop callers hands, and hero likely has little FE. Just dont need him burning money.

[Tooty816]

[ QUOTE ]
You can afford to play .02/.04 games. That's about it.

When we talk about variance, it isn't just a word. It is the square of standard deviation. The square. Like the kinetic energy of a car crashing into a wall at 60mph is four times bigger than the energy crashing into the wall at 30mph. That kind of square. And right now you are going 100mph aimed directly at the wall of Busto City.

[/ QUOTE ]

So I need 1000 buy-ins at each level?!??!?!? /images/graemlins/confused.gif

[Three Sigma]

A buyin is normally 100 big blinds, so at .02/.04 100 big blinds is $4. You need 20 buyins, or about $80 to be safe, if you are a winning player. No amount of buyins will save a losing player.

[Tooty816]

Is the 20buyins needed to absorb the down-swings then?

[Three Sigma]

Yes, I once went down 13 buyins in a week and was talking to myself...

[Three Sigma]

NL4 (0.02/.04) and NL10 (0.05/0.10) are easy enough that 10 buyins are probably safe. I bought in with $100 at NL10 and moved up to NL25 when I got to $250. I decided to wait for $1000 before trying NL50. I'm at $1200 and still haven't moved up because NL25 is comfortable to win at. 25,000 hands so far.

[Kyriefurro]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I once went down 13 buyins in a week and was talking to myself...

[/ QUOTE ]

Only talked? /images/graemlins/grin.gif By the time I hit 13 buy-ins I'm doing a lot worse that talking to myself. In fact I usually start breaking things around the 8th buy in lol.

Oh....did I mention I have a bit of a tilt problem?

[Three Sigma]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
Yes, I once went down 13 buyins in a week and was talking to myself...

[/ QUOTE ]

Only talked? /images/graemlins/grin.gif By the time I hit 13 buy-ins I'm doing a lot worse that talking to myself. In fact I usually start breaking things around the 8th buy in lol.

Oh....did I mention I have a bit of a tilt problem?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's why I decided to wait a while before moving up. I was at almost 40 NL25 buyins when the wheels came off. It took two months to recover.