Offical Movie Opening Weekend Thread for July 28th-30th

[brendanb438]

Lines from Pinny....


John Tucker Must Die (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
J.T. Must Die
09:00 AM 525 Over 11.5 million -172
526 Under 11.5 million +156

Miami Vice (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
Miami Vice
09:00 AM 507 Over 28.5 million -129
508 Under 28.5 million +113

The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for
The Ant Bully
09:00 AM 517 Over 16.5 million +100
518 Under 16.5 million -116

Projected Theatre Counts

Jul. 28 Theaters
The Ant Bully 2,800+
John Tucker Must Die 2,500+
Miami Vice 3,000


Discuss.

My early thought is Ant Bully is gonna bomb, I thought John Tucker would do really good, but Internet Buzz is down a bunch, and Miami Vice's running time is cutting back on # of showings it is getting per theatre.

Could this be another week were all 3 movies go under Pinny's Early lines?

Brendan

[Thremp]

POTC2 was a big factor in that along with 4 movie opening. I don't like the previews personally. I wanna see how the odds go and I might lay all 3 under.

I mean Clerks 2 had a decent amount of buzz and theaters added but still no go. Hrm... I feel so confused now.

[SumZero]

I'd say under on AB and JTMD and over on MV.

[DropGems]

Miami Vice will def be number #1 and will be Michael Manns biggest opening film he's ever had. I think I'm gonna take the over but still researching. So far reviews are positive, good publicity, oscar winning actor, huge 80's fanbase, gnarly action movie, etc... Plus Michael Mann rocks.

[Thremp]

We're coming off some of the biggest movie weeks ever which I don't know if it has a receding effect where the occasional goer does not goto the theater very often.

[hogua]

JTMD seems like an easy over here. Fox is spending a lot on marketing this title. Hell, I'm seeing commercials for it every 15 mintues no matter what show I'm watching.

Plus it is a total teen/post teen chick flick. The star is the "dreamy" guy from Desperate Housewives and it is about chicks getting even with a cheating man.

The demo that wants to see this isn't going to want to see anything else that comes out this weekend or that came out last weekend.

This is just my initial gut feel, as I haven't done research yet, so take all I said with a grain of salt.

[DropGems]

If "Little Man" can do 22 million with another comedy (You, Me and Dupree) directly competing against it and Pirates 2 in it's 2nd weekend, then Miami Vice should be able to do 30 million with no direct competition and Pirates in it's 4th week. Only thing that worries me about Miami Vice is the R rating and the # of screens it's playing on. But still, there are lots of positives for Miami Vice.

[Thremp]

R rating. Yuck. I might not touch it at all.

Training Day 8300
Sin City 9000
Swordfish 6800

It is a longer film... But it has the TV/sequel feel doing for it. On the same note I don't see any of the things that made Miami Vice so cool in the 80s and so cool now to pretend to be retro as what seems to be the feel of this movie.

[DropGems]

Michael Manns last flick Collateral was R and it had a 24 mil opening weekend. It had Tom Cruise but Vice has the 5 year running popular tv series fans along with farrel, fox, and michael mann fans, plus action movie fans that haven't had their fix yet this summer (except for MI:3 but that was 3 months ago).

Also, the film is a modernized Miami Vice. No 80s, no pink shirts and Ferrari Testarossas (they do have a Ferrari f430 in it though). Michael Mann makes dark, serious films so it won't feel like the tv series which was cool but totally outdated and would probably feel cheesy on the big screen just posing an episode of miami vice with totally different leads trying to be the same characters from the 80s. Diehard Vice fans might be turned away by this but I think just the name "Miami Vice" will draw tons of people in from ages 18 to 50. I think people want to see an R rated movie too since the last 20 movies or so have been PG and PG-13 (except for Clerks 2).

[hogua]

Here's what I did

Wager Type: Proposition/Future


Selection 1 : Movies John Tucker Must Die (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for J.T. Must Die 529) Over 12.5 million -172 Risking 150.00 to Win 87.21 USD ---

Selection 2 : Movies Miami Vice (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for Miami Vice 506) Under 28 million -121 Risking 200.00 to Win 165.29 USD ---

Selection 3 : Movies The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28) Opening 3 day weekend box office for The Ant Bully 515) Over 16 million +102 Risking 200.00 to Win 204.00 USD

[brendanb438]

I am stuck at work late tonight and Pinny and WSEX are blocked by my network here. Could someone post what Pinny's current lines are on these and also later what WSEX lines are when they go up tonight? With how the lines have been moving on Pinny I am thinking about not placing any bets this week on any of these.

Thanks,
Brendan

[Thremp]

Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for J.T. Must Die
Maximum Wager: 357.14 USD
09:00 AM 529 Over 12.5 million -145 Risk To Win
530 Under 12.5 million +129 Risk To Win
Miami Vice (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for Miami Vice
Maximum Wager: 428.57 USD
09:00 AM 503 Over 27.5 million +120 Risk To Win
504 Under 27.5 million -136 Risk To Win
The Ant Bully (must be res. July 28)
Fri 7/28 Opening 3 day weekend box office for The Ant Bully
Maximum Wager: 357.14 USD
09:00 AM 519 Over 15.5 million +132 Risk To Win
520 Under 15.5 million -148 Risk To Win

[llabb]

Current WSEX odds:

Miami Vice
Over 27.5 million +140
Under 27.5 million -180

Nothing posted on the other two movies.


Current Pinny odds still basically the same as Thremp posted, but here it is a little cleaner to read, with extraneous info removed:

John Tucker Must Die
Over 12.5 million -145
Under 12.5 million +129

Miami Vice
Over 27.5 million +121
Under 27.5 million -137

The Ant Bully
Over 15.5 million +144
Under 15.5 million -160

[brendanb438]

Thanks guys.

I just got home and I don't really see any value in these lines. Looks like these 3 movies have a solid chance of doing within 1 Million of each posted line.

You betting any of these llabb?

Brendan

[rush66]

I'm waiting for a llabb or a Performity post.

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
Thanks guys.

I just got home and I don't really see any value in these lines. Looks like these 3 movies have a solid chance of doing within 1 Million of each posted line.

You betting any of these llabb?

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

I agree. But, if that's the case, would't taking the odds be a good value?

[brendanb438]

With how much the lines have moved over the past 4 hours these are all very close on either the over or under, no + odds to consider right now on MV or on AB. JTMD you might consider value in the +135 under but this is too random of a bet to have value. The fallout from POTC2 doing so well has hurt the last couple of weeks worth of new movies, I wonder if it will drag them all down again this week.

Brendan

[hogua]

[ QUOTE ]
Current WSEX odds:

Miami Vice
Over 27.5 million +140
Under 27.5 million -180

Nothing posted on the other two movies.


Current Pinny odds still basically the same as Thremp posted, but here it is a little cleaner to read, with extraneous info removed:

John Tucker Must Die
Over 12.5 million -145
Under 12.5 million +129

Miami Vice
Over 27.5 million +121
Under 27.5 million -137

The Ant Bully
Over 15.5 million +144
Under 15.5 million -160

[/ QUOTE ]

Anyone else jump of the arb here?

[llabb]

I didn't see anything I liked substantially, nothing worth posting. Only have a small arb on MV, weighted towards the Over. No apparent board consensus either. Non-betting, my pure guesses are MV Over, AB Under, and JTMD Under.

So no real plays, just a 1* free arb on MV Over 27.

Updated board consensus record: 7-0 through last week. These are the plays where the board is predominantly behind one side, with some conviction. Last week some of the regulars were away, and those who posted a side were split between Overs and Unders. The leanings, though, were towards the Clerks O, Lady O, Monster O, and Super O, which went 1-3.

My updated record: 8-3
Weighted * record: 20-6
Units: +1 bajillion

[Thremp]

Yeah cause you put a bajillion on Pirates.


Yes, this is jealousy.

[DropGems]

I got the Vice over which was sorta an emotional choice since i'm a Michael Mann fan, hah. It will definitely knock Pirates off it's pedestal. The line is a little sketchy, it'll probably be pretty close.

[brendanb438]

Well I got in on the under on Pinny this morning at +130 for more than I care to admit. /images/graemlins/blush.gif
So far early early tracking via Yahoo Review's and some crazy formulas being used on a couple major boards feel that MV is looking at a max $8 Million opening day. These guys are pretty good at this.


We might see the following,

Fri $8 Million
Sat $9.5 Million
Sun $7 Million
===============
Total $24.5 Million

This is assuming it has a bigger Saturday say like Four Brothers did. If it drops off on Saturday like Sin City did then we will be looking at a total around $22 Million.

I think this is looking at around $22 - $26 Million now.


llabb I wish I arbed this between last nights WSEX +140 O and this mornings Pinny U +130. Not sure what caused the line to flip from -130 to +130 on Pinny but I am glad it did so I could make what I feel is a value play on the under.

Brendan

[rsigley]

I saw Miami Vice last night and the theater was packed (nearly every seat taken) with 40 year olds, didn't see one teenager in there. I ducked my head in the other showings and they were packed too. So hoping this will go over /images/graemlins/smile.gif

[domer2]

good logic rsigley

[rush66]

Hope so as well, I followed llabb's gut feelings and went MV over, and under on the two others.

[brendanb438]

Domer2 any word yet on initial #s? Also are you on the BOM and KJ forums? If so I was wondering what your forum name was there?

Also what time do you think actual numbers will post today?
I lot of early guesses on KJ and BOM have MV doing somewhere between $6 Million to $8 Million opening day now. Looks like AB will go under and that JTMD had a big opening day maybe as much as $6 or $7 Million, but these movies are usually very very frontloaded so even with a $6 Million opening day it might not do over $12.5 Million.

Brendan

[rsigley]

I went with over on MV and JTMD

All the reports on boxofficemojo say JTMD is doing really well and MV is doing horrible

Hopefully the Fri numbers will be good for MV

the JTMD numbers make sense I guess, no movies targeted towards teens (latest: POTC, Super Ex didn't seem to target that demo) are out and teens love the movies

[domer2]

Studio estimates will come in less than an hour.

In the meantime, here are my projections: Miami $22, Tucker: $16.5, Ant Bully: $11

[brendanb438]

1. MIAMI VICE UNIVERSAL 3,050 8,666,700 2,842 n/a 8,666,700
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST BVI 3,834 5,877,000 1,533 -42% 343,731,000
3. JOHN TUCKER MUST DIE 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,560 5,819,000 2,273 n/a 5,819,000
4. MONSTER HOUSE SONY 3,553 3,680,000 1,036 -51% 36,097,000
5. ANT BULLY WARNER BROS. 3,021 3,025,000 1,001 n/a 3,025,000
6. LADY IN THE WATER WARNER BROS. 3,235 2,200,000 680 -68% 27,244,000
7. YOU, ME AND DUPREE UNIVERSAL 2,850 2,190,000 768 -45% 54,198,000
8. LITTLE MAN SONY 2,175 1,496,000 688 -54% 46,527,000
9. DEVIL WEARS PRADA, THE 20TH CENTURY FOX 1,778 1,482,000 834 -31% 103,353,000
10. CLERKS II MGM 2,150 1,260,000 586 -69% 15,795,000


Numbers from SBD

Brendan

[rush66]

what is sbd? ive seen it on here a few times and cant figure it out. From these numbers looks like MV under, JTMD over, Ant Bully under. Cant we just get another pirates where we all know whats gonna happen

[brendanb438]

showbizdata.com Them and boxofficemojo.com along with entdata.com are the sites for numbers.

Brendan

[DropGems]

I shouldn't have bet vice as I pretty much knew in the back of my head that it had a very good shot at under performing and that it's basically a coin toss. I still thought it had a good shot at becoming that summer blockbuster action flick that we haven't had yet this summer though. Bad play by me.

[brendanb438]

<<<<My early thought is Ant Bully is gonna bomb, I thought John Tucker would do really good, but Internet Buzz is down a bunch, and Miami Vice's running time is cutting back on # of showings it is getting per theatre.>>>>


Looks like Ant Bully is definitely a bomb. This shouldn't break $10 Million. I was dead on on this one.

John Tucker will go over by probably a couple Million should have around $14 - $15 Million total. I would have played the over on this one on Pinny if it was at any point better than the -145 I saw. I thought there would be better value in betting what money I had in my Pinny account on one of the other 2 movies.

Miami Vice the one play I actually made. I put down double digit units on the under on this one this morning when I saw it for some damn reason went +130 for U $27.5. I got in 4 nice max bets to tap out what was left in my Pinny account. Wish I had more but YM&D and Monster House hit my Pinny account hard with those close close loses. With $8.7 Million the only way I can lose this is if something crazy as hell happens to push this over.

I hope next weeks lines on T. Nights and Barnyard will be easy plays because the last couple weeks have been rough on our board. We need to get back to picking the winner and everyone being behind the correct pick as a group.

Brendan

[brendanb438]

I just got back from seeing Clerks II tonight, one of the funniest movies I had ever seen. The 23 of us who were in the 250 seat theatre tonight loved it. Suprised this movie dropped off so badly, it is so damn funny. The 2 late night showings of MV had between 65% and 75% filled theatres.

I also found out tonight that about $5,000 worth of stuff I had in storage in my mother's basement was destroyed from flooding. Some really valuable comics and sports cards. This sucks, included in the destruction was a couple hundred key Marvel comics from the sixty's that my dad gave me when I was a kid. I should have eBayed these last summer when I sold a few grand in Star Wars collectibles that were also with these in that basement.

Brendan

[rush66]

I am watching it right now...and i wanted to say ethan suplee has dropped a ton of weight.

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
I just got back from seeing Clerks II tonight, one of the funniest movies I had ever seen. The 23 of us who were in the 250 seat theatre tonight loved it. Suprised this movie dropped off so badly, it is so damn funny. The 2 late night showings of MV had between 65% and 75% filled theatres.

I also found out tonight that about $5,000 worth of stuff I had in storage in my mother's basement was destroyed from flooding. Some really valuable comics and sports cards. This sucks, included in the destruction was a couple hundred key Marvel comics from the sixty's that my dad gave me when I was a kid. I should have eBayed these last summer when I sold a few grand in Star Wars collectibles that were also with these in that basement.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

BBV

[Oski]

[ QUOTE ]
I just got back from seeing Clerks II tonight, one of the funniest movies I had ever seen. The 23 of us who were in the 250 seat theatre tonight loved it. Suprised this movie dropped off so badly, it is so damn funny. The 2 late night showings of MV had between 65% and 75% filled theatres.

I also found out tonight that about $5,000 worth of stuff I had in storage in my mother's basement was destroyed from flooding. Some really valuable comics and sports cards. This sucks, included in the destruction was a couple hundred key Marvel comics from the sixty's that my dad gave me when I was a kid. I should have eBayed these last summer when I sold a few grand in Star Wars collectibles that were also with these in that basement.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Have your mom make a claim on her home owner's insurance.

[brendanb438]

Oski I wish she could, but in Ohio and I believe in most states you have to have a separate flood insurance on top of the homeowners insurance and since she lives in an area that flooding is unheard of she didn't have it. Def a BBV.

Anyway here are Sat. #s.

1. MIAMI VICE UNIVERSAL 3,050 9,020,000 2,957 n/a 17,686,700
2. PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MAN'S CHEST BVI 3,834 8,393,000 2,189 -44% 352,124,000
3. MONSTER HOUSE SONY 3,553 4,685,000 1,319 -47% 40,782,000
4. JOHN TUCKER MUST DIE 20TH CENTURY FOX 2,560 4,445,000 1,736 n/a 10,264,000
5. ANT BULLY WARNER BROS. 3,021 3,105,000 1,028 n/a 5,572,999
6. LADY IN THE WATER WARNER BROS. 3,235 2,645,000 818 -60% 29,889,000
7. YOU, ME AND DUPREE UNIVERSAL 2,850 2,610,000 916 -49% 56,808,000
8. LITTLE MAN SONY 2,175 1,995,000 917 -56% 48,522,000
9. DEVIL WEARS PRADA, THE 20TH CENTURY FOX 1,778 1,933,000 1,087 -37% 105,286,000
10. SUPERMAN RETURNS WARNER BROS. 2,150 1,565,000 728 -49% 184,635,000


Brendan

[jaybert]

[ QUOTE ]
The film, which pairs Colin Farrell and Jamie Foxx as the iconic TV characters Sonny Crockett and Ricardo Tubbs, took in $25.2 million, compared to $20.5 million for "Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest," according to studio estimates Sunday.

[/ QUOTE ]

taken from http://www.cnn.com/2006/SHOWBIZ/Movies/07/30/box.office.ap/index.html

[brendanb438]

1 N Miami Vice Uni. $25,195,000 - 3,021 - $8,339 $25,195,000 $135 1
2 1 Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest BV $20,492,000 -41.8% 3,834 -299 $5,344 $358,372,000 $225 4
3 N John Tucker Must Die Fox $14,075,000 - 2,560 - $5,498 $14,075,000 $18 1
4 2 Monster House Sony $11,500,000 -48.2% 3,553 - $3,236 $43,872,000 $75 2
5 N The Ant Bully WB $8,145,000 - 3,050 - $2,670 $8,145,000 - 1
6 4 You, Me and Dupree Uni. $7,036,000 -44.9% 2,820 -317 $2,495 $59,049,000 $54 3
7 3 Lady in the Water WB $7,005,000 -61.2% 3,235 - $2,165 $32,064,000 $55 2
8 5 Little Man SonR $5,100,000 -53.7% 2,175 -362 $2,344 $50,163,000 $64 3
9 9 The Devil Wears Prada Fox $4,775,000 -35.1% 1,778 -470 $2,685 $106,664,000 $35 5
10 6 Clerks II MGM $3,945,000 -60.8% 2,150 - $1,834 $18,473,000 $5 2

Weekend Estimates. Looks like MV under, JTMD Over and AB way under.

Brendan

[rsigley]

damn how could a movie with a 130 mil budget only make 25 million

oh well at least i got john tucker