Official Superman Opening Weekend Thread

[brendanb438]

Starting this one tonight since this comes out Wednesday.

Pinny has the line at O/U $76 Million June 28 - June 30th , with odds on both sides going back and forth at a crazy ass rate.

Sportsbook.com has the O/U at $89.5 Million June 28 - June 30th, with the over -130 and the under -110 as of right now. My wife and myself have $200 each on the under on sportsbook.

All the guesses so far on boxofficemojo and other online forums which just discuss opening numbers for movies feel this will do $24 to $34 Million opening day on Wednesday which would trend for it to do about 40% less Thursday and roughly 90% to 110% on Friday.

No one on any of the forums believe this movie will do $89.5 Million those first 3 days so I suggest everyone jump on that under for $200 at sportsbook before the line goes to like -200 or something crazy.

What does everyone feel this one will do?

I say

Wednesday - $29 Million
Thursday - $17 Million
Friday - $31 Million


Brendan /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/spade.gif

[brendanb438]

So far I have seen lines in regards to this movie at Bodog, Pinnacle and Sportsbook.com. WSEX should have them up Tuesday night. Anyone know any other books taking bets on this or other Movie opening weekends?

betwwts.com has O/U $84.5 Million.


Brendan

[almostbusto]

#6324839 - 06/25/06 09:47 PM
the below quote is in reference to the 76 O/U figure.
[ QUOTE ]

This won't go over for sure. that is for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. I see this doing around 65 maybe 70 million those 3 days.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

Then you say
[ QUOTE ]
Wednesday - $29 Million
Thursday - $17 Million
Friday - $31 Million

[/ QUOTE ]

almost exactly an hour later.

why the sudden dramatic change of heart? you went from it won't go over for sure to its more likely than not to happen in an hour.

[brendanb438]

I didn't see how many theatres this is opening in and I assumed around 3500. It looks like this will open in closer to 4000 theatres and that is why I think it might do right around that number that Pinny set it at.

Sorry for the initial confusion. I should have looked at the theatre numbers before I said I see this doing 65 - 70 Million. That is the reason for the 14% ish increase in what I think this will do.

Looks like whoever is picking Pinny's lines for this one is pretty solid.

Brendan

[brendanb438]

Looks like Pinny took their lines down for the time being because of all the wild action they were receiving last night. What all did everyone bet on the Pinny line and how much did you manage to ARB if you were trying for this?

Brendan

[almostbusto]

right now i am risking 184.26 to win 487.95 that the movie does U76.

also risking 200 to win 181.82 (should have got this at even money but i didn't notice it was a wed-fri prop until homer said so) that the movie goes under 89.5

so i can't lose as long as it stays under 89.5. as i said earlier though i really like the over 76 (at even money that is at -120 i think it loses pretty much all value based on my estimation) so i hope to get another chance to at least even it out a little.

[almostbusto]

anyone have any predictions for the fri-sat-sun weekend lines?

i don't have a great handle on how to predict them given the wednesday release.

[ThaHero]

I posted some analysis in a different Superman thread I started but had little info at that point. Search my name for the post. I'm posting from my phone right now which makes it difficult to search for and post links.

[brendanb438]

almostbusto it is tough to really really say.

I think

Wednesday $29 Million

Thursday $17 Million

Friday $31 Million

Saturday $21 Million

Sunday $14 Million

5 Day Total $112 Million

Brendan

[almostbusto]

in other movie news:

Pirates of the caribbean 2 is up for wagering at betwwts.com

O/U is at 102 (its a 3 day weekend movie) -120 for both sides. any thoughts?

[brendanb438]

The O/U for Pirates is $90 Million at sportsbook with the over -140 and the under even right now.

I haven't seen anywhere how many theatres Pirates is opening in but I see it doing around $100 Million opening weekend. If this opens in around 4000 theatres like I figure it will it will probably do $115 Million opening weekend. I don't see Superman giving it any competition since everyone who wants to see it will have already gone to see it.

Brendan

[almostbusto]

[ QUOTE ]
The O/U for Pirates is $90 Million at sportsbook with the over -140 and the under even right now.

I haven't seen anywhere how many theatres Pirates is opening in but I see it doing around $100 Million opening weekend. If this opens in around 4000 theatres like I figure it will it will probably do $115 Million opening weekend. I don't see Superman giving it any competition since everyone who wants to see it will have already gone to see it.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]isn't 115 a record for weekends? or close to it. at first i thought both of these were a lock for the over but after thinking about it superman isn't going to go away completely plus all the other random movies in the mix are going to bring in some money. i mean how many movie tickets can be sold in america in a weekend. plus a lot of families will have just gone to superman and will decide to skip pirates (taking a whole family out can be pricey even at early bird prices). those effects i just mentioned might all be minor, but we are talking about a film breaking/near breaking a record, i think it will be very hard to do with another 200million dollar movie in the mix

[brendanb438]

Spiderman with just under $115 Million is the opening weekend record holder. It opened in 3600 theatres.

I have personally thought all summer that POTC2 will be the summer blockbuster. Knowing the power and pull that Disney has with theatres this might open in around 4200 theatres nationwide.

I think Superman will do solid, but I see it being very very frontloaded for ticket sales and I think it will have a minimum affect on POTC2 ticket sales.

Also Disney has flooded the market with free movie tickets in DVDs, online promotions, hell even to employees of a few major retail chains. I would guess close to $10 Million in tickets being given away which will be considered towards box office sales since the movie theatres get reimbursed from Disney for these coupon/movie checks.

Brendan

[mmbt0ne]

As pryor15 explained in an OOT thread, Superman being so long basically means it will get 1 less showing per theater per day than a normal 2 hour movie. That should be taken into account for all wagers.

[AJackson]

I'm going to take my shot although I hate to mess up my perfect record.

WSEX has it at 110 for the five day weekend.

If X3, a crappy movie, can do 103 during a 3 day weekend how could Superman, a well reviewed movie, not do more than 110?

Two reasons: Mostly I worry about business being pushed to mon and tues, these have proven to be strong movie days when the fourth fell on a tuesday. A more minor point, Superman is much longer.

However I was able to pick up a couple of units of the over at +150. I wouldn't take an even bet. I'm going to watch the line, it's dipped back to +115 and see if it takes another run up and I might pick up a few more units.

[Thremp]

It opens on a Wed.

Openings matter a lot more on 1) Advertising 2) Fan base (sequels) 3) Timing ...than on how "good" a movie is.

There are plenty of great films which have terrible openings.

[AJackson]

I'm a little concerned about the sequel factor, it's unquestionably huge, just look at X3.

But, comic book movies have that built in fan base. The Hulk did 63M and it has no where near the fan base of Superman. I wouldn't be surprised to see 120M

[brendanb438]

Monday and Tuesday what does this have to do with Superman's opening 5 day outlook? I don't think the $110 Million line is that solid of a line to bet on at all. Funny that I guessed $112 Million for the 5 day and it fell at $110 at Pinny. This could go either way so I don't see any value in this bet at all. Get on the sportsbook.com 3 day Wed to Fri with the under $88.5 bet $200 to win around $130 if you haven't yet. This is money.

Also this isn't really a sequel of anything. We haven't had a Superman movie in forever were as the X-Men series is what a whole generation of moviegoers have grown up with in the past 5 or so years. I think a lot of people who grew up with Christopher Reeves as Superman, myself included, aren't really that interested in this movie and I will just wait to watch it on DVD.

Brendan

[AJackson]

[ QUOTE ]
Monday and Tuesday what does this have to do with Superman's opening 5 day outlook? I don't think the $110 Million line is that solid of a line to bet on at all. Funny that I guessed $112 Million for the 5 day and it fell at $110 at Pinny. This could go either way so I don't see any value in this bet at all. Get on the sportsbook.com 3 day Wed to Fri with the under $88.5 bet $200 to win around $130 if you haven't yet. This is money.

Also this isn't really a sequel of anything. We haven't had a Superman movie in forever were as the X-Men series is what a whole generation of moviegoers have grown up with in the past 5 or so years. I think a lot of people who grew up with Christopher Reeves as Superman, myself included, aren't really that interested in this movie and I will just wait to watch it on DVD.

Brendan

[/ QUOTE ]

When people have a long weekend a percentage of them will choose to catch the movie on Monday or Tuesday. If you check the years where the fourth has fallen on a Monday or Tuesday you'll see that the big openers performed fairly strongly. For example THe Perfect Storm did almost as much on that Monday as it did on Friday. Tuesday only dropped by a couple of million.

I doubt one could make a convincing arguement that all these Mon and Tues viewers are customers who wouldn't have otherwise seen the movie on the weekend. Thus my concern that some weekend customers are going to see the movie outside the 5 day time frame.

Your key phrase is 'this could go either way'. While I do lean toward the over I can't disagree too strongly with you. That's why I made the point that I took the over at +150 and wouldn't take it at even. I'll take +150 all day long on 50/50 shots.

I could be wrong about the publics desire to see a Superman movie, but I would be surprised if many people thought as you and waited for the DVD. Comic book movies as a whole do exceptionally well and Superman is an iconic figure. Just about Americana as apple pie and baseball. I think you're going to have plenty of the 35+ crowd that has childhood memories of Superman and a lot of them will take the entire family. And I think the younger crowd will be strong also with little else opening and last weeks movies not being very strong.

[SumZero]

FWIW all of the 10, 10:15, and 10:30 Tuesday night showings of Superman were sold out at my local movie theatre by 7pm with a couple of ~30 people lines already forming.

[Thremp]

Just to clarify what we're talking about... Superman if it hits a line of 70+ mil will be one of the top weekend openings ever. Spiderman 2 which had everything going for it humanly possible didn't even clear 90 million.

That being said. I think a line of under ~85-90 mil on either Wed-Fri or Fri-Sun demands a strong play on the under.

Wasn't able to get any bets in on this one so we'll see how it ends up.


YTD
3-2 +~11u

[howzit]

konichiwa bitches,

i'm a lurker and an avid prop bettor with the guys i work with. and the thoughts and bullshite analysis that goes on this forum is avidly argued with the guys i work with. so i hope to keep using you "+EV" guys as the foundation for future prop/non-sports bets.

i laid somebody 1:1 superman wouldn't top spiderman for the $114+mm record from wed-sun.

as of today, i thought i gave him too much but some of these resonses have led me to believe i coudl press this bet.

i know it's longer than normal and the advertising isn't as strong as normal imo. i see the usual trailer and print ads and saw the ad on AIM when i opened it. but i don't really see it on TV and neither do i see it in fliers or on the big bill boards. (i live in NYC btw)

would you guys press this or not?

[Thremp]

[ QUOTE ]
konichiwa bitches,

i'm a lurker and an avid prop bettor with the guys i work with. and the thoughts and bullshite analysis that goes on this forum is avidly argued with the guys i work with. so i hope to keep using you "+EV" guys as the foundation for future prop/non-sports bets.

i laid somebody 1:1 superman wouldn't top spiderman for the $114+mm record from wed-sun.

as of today, i thought i gave him too much but some of these resonses have led me to believe i coudl press this bet.

i know it's longer than normal and the advertising isn't as strong as normal imo. i see the usual trailer and print ads and saw the ad on AIM when i opened it. but i don't really see it on TV and neither do i see it in fliers or on the big bill boards. (i live in NYC btw)

would you guys press this or not?

[/ QUOTE ]

LOL

[llabb]

$21 million opening day (BOM) is not so good for the type of numbers Superman was expected to make. Unders looking good at this point. Too bad I couldn't get in on them, as the time window was too small, and I've been traveling for work, not able to be online that much lately.

[Frills]

Donated $15 to the over tonight.

Should pick up pace and get stronger later this weekend.

Damn good movie

[brendanb438]

I think it is safe to say everyone who is on the U $89.5 Million for Wed - Fri is in the money with this opening under $22 Million Wednesday w/ Tuesday's ticket sales included in that number.

I kind of wish I got in on the under $110 Million this is underperforming way more than I would have ever guessed.

Brendan

[Mr.JR]

[ QUOTE ]
Donated $15 to the over tonight.

Should pick up pace and get stronger later this weekend.

Damn good movie

[/ QUOTE ]

I hope so. Need it to make over $40 million Fri-Sun, which is less than $14 million each day, to win my bet.

[critikal]

Anyone know where to find thursday's numbers when they are up? Not sure it will matter either way.

[almostbusto]

i heard on boxofficemojo that the numbers for thursday are 11 million. they linked this site http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/ which i haven't gone to confirm.


i looks like the under is pretty much a lock unless i am missing something. which means a healthy payday for me

[Mr.JR]

[ QUOTE ]
i heard on boxofficemojo that the numbers for thursday are 11 million. they linked this site http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/ which i haven't gone to confirm.

i looks like the under is pretty much a lock unless i am missing something. which means a healthy payday for me

[/ QUOTE ]

$11 million sounds about right. Most Wed. openings have a 40-60% drop on Thursday.

I expect a strong $60-$65 million weekend.

[brendanb438]

Superman's Friday numbers are out. Around $16 Million for a Wed - Fri of under $50 Million. All under bets on all lines at all the sportsbooks should be clear winners for everyone. Congrats to all who played this one hard and fast on the under!

This is the blockbuster bomb of the summer for sure. Looks like POTC2 will have ZERO competition from this next weekend.

Brendan /images/graemlins/spade.gif /images/graemlins/club.gif /images/graemlins/diamond.gif /images/graemlins/heart.gif

YTD Movie Openings

3-1-1 + 22.5 Units

Cars + 1 Unit
FFTD + 2.1 Units
Click + 10 Units (Guessed over was wrong but won big, long story overbets given no action)
Superman Returns + 8 Units
Devil Wears Prada ARB +1.4 Units