Pirateboy's NCAAF ML Dogs Experiment - W9

[pirateboy]

Alright friends, I'm doing it. Diving in headfirst. Added bankroll to the ol' account to make it possible. Over at sbrforum, they had a breakdown of moneyline underdogs and their records broken out in each spread class and compared winning percentages. The data is from 1985-2007, and I will be updating it every week. They also included the "BE," or break even, odds you'd need to ... yes, break eve.

So, after talking to MT2R via PM, I decided that for every game where I find even the smallest edge, I'm putting a unit on it. He advised I wait until the latest possible time to place the bet, due to the theory that we'd get the best information throughout the week, and a more correct ML. He advised I do kelly betting for this, but because I do happen to like action, I'll play every edge. So, the schedule each week should be:

For Thursday games: make wager at 4pm PST on Thu
For Friday games: make wager at 4pm PST on Fri
For Saturday games: make wager either late Friday night or early Saturday morning

I happen to drink a bit almost every Friday night, so I'll have flexibility here. I'll post the plays for Week 9 in this thread, and start a new one for Week 10 next week. If a mod would rather me keep them all in one thread, let me know. Oh, and all odds from Bookmaker.

So, even though I'm not placing the wager for another 4 hours, here's an example for tonight.

<u>Dog (Spread) - Win % - ML (BE) Edge</u>
Boston College (+3) - 37.54% - +135 (+166) -31

Air Force (+6) - 37.54% - +205 (+166) +39


So, by using this procedure, I'd place 1 unit on the Air Force moneyline, and nothing on the BC moneyline. As was pointed out before, there can be a flaw here, because, is a 3 pt dog the same as a 6 pt dog? No. It's a flaw. However, I truly believe this is going to be profitable longterm, but I'm doing the experiment to find out.

I'll check back at 4pm PST to make the official wager.