Live deep stack 25/50NL hand

[tsarast]

I am on the button... 25/50NL game, 7/8 handed. someone in MP posts.. EP young asian kid (possibly a pro, plays very laggy... pretty good hand-reader, but tends to overvalue hands) opens for 225, poster calls, i call on button with J8d, Eugene from NYC (loose and somewhat passive, tricky, reads hands pretty well) calls out of the SB.
Stack sizes: Eugene 30ishk, asian kid 20ishk, me: 15-16k
Flop: JT8 rainbow with Td.
Eugene checks, asian kid bets 700, poster folds, i call, Eugene calls.
Turn 3d... Eugene checks, kid bets 1500... (3k in pot)

I have 15k left, both have me covered.

I obviously could have raised the flop, thoughts on that? And of course, what do you do here on the turn?

[raptor517]

pretty standard turn call imo.

[tsarast]

ofc you cant fold the turn... i am asking for thoughts between calling/raising.

[raptor517]

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ofc you cant fold the turn... i am asking for thoughts between calling/raising.

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who said anything about folding? raising is horrid imo. there is only 1 real play here, thats calling. do u think ur gonna fold out a better hand?

[tsarast]

i think there is a chance the asian kid might call with AA-QQ, or T8... possibly evey AJ

[tsarast]

probably not, but he might... as i said he is on the laggish side, and tends to overvalue his hands (he might correctly assume i picked up the flush draw). he also views me as extremely move-heavy... as we played a short-handed session one time where I consistently c/r'd him with air postflop and rr'd him preflop. however... the other problem is eugene. should i ever be worried about him in this spot?

[todd1007]

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ofc you cant fold the turn... i am asking for thoughts between calling/raising.

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who said anything about folding? raising is horrid imo. there is only 1 real play here, thats calling. do u think ur gonna fold out a better hand?

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i hate this line. there are far too many drawing hands that are easily getting priced in when you are 300bb deep that you are going to have to muck if a scare card hits turn or river. the flop should have been obviously raised

eugene's hand seem fairly transparent; he has 99, 89, 9T, and possibly 79. even though he was getting 3-1 preflop, cold calling with a two gapper seems out of his range, i cannot put him on Q9. i think he CR on the flop for value, just calling with a set on this board is just as bad as calling with top/bottom on this board. the only other hand, JT, i think he leads out weak on the flop, with the intention of being raised, or leads out strong on the turn, so i cannot put him on JT either. the real problem with not raising the flop is that we have no idea where the asian kid is at. His weak lead on the turn is fortunate for us in that he has an overpair at best, and we are still good. laggy players like to push their opponents to hard decisions, and if he was strong here, i think he would overbet the turn as well. on the turn, i like just a call, since we have picked up the flush draw. if the river misses a straight card, misses a 3, or we make our flush, i think we can safely value bet 1/3 pot on the river with and can get called by an OP. if one of these cards hit i think we have to fold to any kind of 1/2 pot size bet or larger.

[FoxwoodsFiend]

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even though he was getting 3-1 preflop, cold calling with a two gapper seems out of his range, i cannot put him on Q9.

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LOL. This is LIVE. People play 3 gappers hoping to flop deceptive boats and scoop 10,000,000 BB pots all the time. 99% of the reason people play deep stacked is so that they can justify playing hands like Q9o.

[cero_z]

Hi tsarast,

So I guess you're wondering if it's now worth protecting your hand vs. the obvious OESD that's likely to be in one player's hand. Although there are other small reasons to raise the turn (kid might call with worse, you may see the river cheaper by raising if Eugene has JT), they are outweighed by these two facts: a)it's more likely that one of the villains is ahead right now than that they're both behind AND will call a raise with a worse hand, and b)the pot (4500) is still only 1/3 of the size of your stack.

Calling here with 13 probable outs to a monster is the clearly correct play, as others have stated. The downside is that you price in a 9. But, that 9 will lose money for sure when the Qd/7d rolls off, and you probably won't lose any more if a different straight rolls off. There are, at maximum, 15 bad cards for you on the river, while there are 13 very good cards, and the other 18 are pretty neutral. So, you're a 2:1 favorite to like the river card, and you should be in a very +EV spot on the river (relatively easy decisions to make), with 5-7k in the pot and 10K left to bet, if you just call on the turn.

Contrast that with raising the turn, which leaves you in the position of risking about 15K in a 4500 pot, where you will either take it down with a hand that may be way ahead, or occasionally get it in as a decent but not overwhelming favorite (like vs. AA) or (slightly more often) as a decent dog (vs. a straight or bigger 2 pair), and you can see why all of the top-notch players who've commented so far have said that it's a super-obvious just-call.

[king_of_drafts]

agh just call. I like flop play too