Ugh, Flopped trips but the flush just hit...Call?

CappyAA · #1 02-23-2006, 04:22 PM

Absolute 6-max 50NL

Villian seems like a decent player, although he gets wild at times. Earlier I had AK with the As, raised preflop and he called. I c-bet a flop with him calling, then I checked behind and got a free card on the turn. On the river I hit the 4th spade to give me the nut flush, and villian led into a $15 pot with a $45 bet and folded to my push. We've both been bullying the table though.

Effective stack - $190 (Yes, $190 at a NL50 table, lol)

Hero is in BB with Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Preflop: 2 folds, CO calls, Button calls, Villian (SB) calls, Hero checks

Flop: ($1.90) Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets $1.50, CO folds, Button folds, Villian calls

Turn: ($4.75) 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Villian checks, Hero bets $4.00, Villian calls

River: ($12.35) 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
Villian bets $12.00, Hero...

He's representing the flush. Call, fold, raise? That was my order I put them in, but what does everyone else do?

hammmb · #2 02-23-2006, 04:30 PM

I likely Call, although I'm as worried about a better Q as I am about the flush.

If he's really a quality player would he have chased pot bets to a flush on a paired board?

EchoTek · #3 02-23-2006, 04:34 PM

I probably just call here. After seeing him bluff a fiver scare card before, I don't think I could lay this down. Good for information if nothing else. I wouldn't raise here.

CappyAA · #4 02-23-2006, 04:35 PM

My inital analysis was Call > Fold >>>>>>>>> Raise

JohnnyLaw · #5 02-23-2006, 04:35 PM

I'd call.

I don't think it'd be correct to ever raise in this spot as it seems like a WA/WB scenario and he would only call your raise when your beat.

directscooter · #6 02-23-2006, 04:41 PM

I call here, seemed like Villain bluffed the on the 4 flush board before and may be doing it again as the flush hit. If he did hit the flush, I would make a note that he will chase it on a paired board. I can't fold or raise here

EGO_WAR · #7 02-23-2006, 04:42 PM

I would call here since I really think you got the 30-ish% you need. I can't see you're up against a better Q, since you would have received earlier action (prolly the turn) with such a hand in my experience. Also, this is far from the nuts of course, but when playing such a player in a table where u both are bullying, it is important to show he cant push u out of pots with pot-sized riverbets when u dont have the nuts.

Raising is just insane. You played it good so far, now call and let him either muck or show something about his play. If he has outdrawn u, well, you've showed your point quite cheap and he will know he cant push u around.

aces_dad · #8 02-23-2006, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
My inital analysis was Call > Fold >>>>>>>>> Raise

[/ QUOTE ]

I would agree with this. I don't see him folding many better hands (only baby flushes) to a raise, and even then you'll have to commit to a big raise to get that done.

Dave I · #9 02-23-2006, 05:27 PM

Cappy, I probably call, maybe fold. I never raise unless I consider it a pure bluff. Many hands beat you here which you know.

Question though. Is this .50NL max $100 or .25NL max $50?

Which brings me to my next point. You mentioned win rate the other day and I noticed you play AP which has 200BB buy-in. Do you think that artificially increases BB/100? I mean you really don't have to stack someone often to rack up a ton of BB. And bigger stacks generally mean more BB per pot. I have a ridiculous win rate on AP .25 max $50 after 11k hands. I basically have attributed it to running well + 200BB buy-in capability. I am certainly not running great and I certainly do not have the skill my BB/100 is indicating. In other words I think it would be more realistic and in line with an average player if the max buy-in were only 100BB. Or, is it all relative?

Anyone have any opinion on this? Sorry for the hijack...

EGO_WAR · #10 02-23-2006, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I probably just call here. After seeing him bluff a fiver scare card before, I don't think I could lay this down. Good for information if nothing else. I wouldn't raise here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Just a little comment about this. If it's a decent player we are up against here, I wouldn't really put to much value in the fact that he have bluffed against us on a similar river earlier. First of all, one of the reasons to bluff (and remember when get caught doing it, and aginst who is important) is that we want to be able to do the same and get called when we are on a strong hand on a similar board later. Second, its often a much better bluffing opportunity to bluff a four-flush board trying to get someone folding a decent flush than to bluff a paired board representing the flush. Other than that, I agree with what u wrote (and I would call myself, as stated in my OP).