A 3-bet pot poll.

[MDMA]

Alright, a little theoretical question. We are playing 5/10 online, and sitting in the cutoff with 1.2k behind. We open to 30 on cutoff with AJs, and button, someone who seems to be a quite good player on the lag side, you don't have too much hands on him, but during the time you've been at the table he's been 3-beting a lot of openers, mostly from you but also a few against early position raisers, and you have just been folding preflop pretty much all the time, so you are getting a bit fed up with him and realize you will have to call with more hands and play back a bit more. He's something like a 26/22-guy so far from what you have seen.

He makes it 100 on button covering you, everyone folds. You decide to take a flop given your history and what you perceive to be his range.

Flop comes 678r, without backdoorflush for you. You check, and he fires 140 into 200. You decide to make a little playback on him, without overcomitting, since you assume he would rarely call with two overcards or anything like that the one time you actually called preflop and then decided to checkraise. So, you make it 320, and he calls. Pot is now 840, and you have 780 left.

Now comes the question; how often would you estimate that you would fire turn here on average (no I don't want to hear it depends on what the turn is, instead account for all possible turn cards and make an estimation of how often you follow through on balance.)