Razz - semi-ok hand 3-way - linecheck

[iStackBooks]

Wait... you really expect this guy to call with a K or Q?? Honestly, I don't see much value in this bet unless he really is that bad. The pot is small on 7th so I see even the worst players folding a J. I think he probably calls if he makes a worse T but that's about it. You are repping a made hand because I think you play a 76 exactly the same here. If he is SUPER suspicious and pays off SUPER light then I guess this works but it seems like there is more value in check-calling to try and pick off a bluff.

If you get raised are you folding?

[iStackBooks]

Is this on Full Tilt? If so who is it? I've played with most of these guys and have notes on them so that would probably help...

[Sp00n]

gross river bet, this is absolutely horrible.

[roggles]

How can it be absolutely horrible when he most of the time he has a worse hand?

Seriously, the way you Razz sharks play rivers makes no sense to me. So basically you don't think this has any value, because he doesn't call with a worse hand. That means I should definitely bet the river here with a J, K, Q or pair because he folds better hands without thinking ??? So if this is true, two things happen:

1) I will bet out any hand because otherwise I will only check with a 9 or a T low and I tell people exactly what I have
2) He should call with a K because I will bet anything

I *believe* that rivers are played extremely passive by most Razz players, and people will only value bet like made 8s even though if the other guy is drawing often a jack low will be better than what he gets on average. So I basically think most people suck at river play, even you guys who are loads better than me. Feel free to prove me wrong.

[ChipsAhoya]

[ QUOTE ]
Seriously, the way you Razz sharks play rivers makes no sense to me. So basically you don't think this has any value, because he doesn't call with a worse hand. That means I should definitely bet the river here with a J, K, Q or pair because he folds better hands without thinking ???

I *believe* that rivers are played extremely passive by most Razz players. So I basically think most people suck at river play, even you guys who are loads better than me. Feel free to prove me wrong.

[/ QUOTE ]

Regardless of how the hand was played, this statement is 100% accurate.

-ChipsAhoya

[Raxxmataxx]

It seems you have something like 50%-53% on the river, prior to any actions. But for you to have that good equity on the bet means that he'll never raise you off with a worse hand and pay off with a ton of really bad hands.

So I don't think you actually have a pure valuebet here, but it may still be better than checking if he is passive and mostly aren't going to bluff when you check while still valuebetting lower hands. Ie, you lose a little less on the bet by betfolding than by checkcalling. If he is passive allround and won't value bet hands like 8:s there's much less clear value in the bet.

I don't think a bet is clearly bad. Especially as his really good 4-card hands on 6th are very unlikely.

I am pretty sure that this is checkcall if we assume perfect play on the river only for both of you. Especially since your paired ace makes this hand not all that good among your possible hands. Assuming you're not crazy on 3d and bet every hand on 5th, T7 is in your bottom 15%, on the river.

[iStackBooks]

[ QUOTE ]
How can it be absolutely horrible when he most of the time he has a worse hand?

[/ QUOTE ]

Rogg, you know better than this. Think of the classic stud example of showing quads on the board. Obviously, if you are showing quads your opponent is going to have the worst hand most of the time, but a bet is clearly very very bad because you are only getting action if you are beat. The same logic applies in situations like this.

This is a situation where unless your opponent is a COMPLETE retard (or he makes the 1 second best hand that MAYBE pays you... a worse T) you are only getting action if you are beat. Therefore, your bet is completely pointless most of the time. Of course, for metagame purposes it is important to bet here every once in a while to mix up your play, but in theory this is a pointless, -EV bet.

This is a very basic concept in poker that applies in pretty much every game.

[roggles]

[ QUOTE ]

Rogg, you know better than this. Think of the classic stud example of showing quads on the board. Obviously, if you are showing quads your opponent is going to have the worst hand most of the time, but a bet is clearly very very bad because you are only getting action if you are beat. The same logic applies in situations like this.

[/ QUOTE ]
But if you read my other post I *should* be getting action from worse hands, if he thinks I am still drawing on 6th. Ok, if this guy is the typical weak-tight river player I'm perhaps not getting great value, but as I said in this case I should definitely bet any total river brick, so this can't be "horrible" no matter which player type he is.

[iStackBooks]

Okay...

1. I agree that you should bet any river brick here. You are repping a made 7 and if you make a 3rd pair or hit a face card on 7th you obviously have to try and win the pot by betting...

2. I also understand your next point - if this is true then your opponent will expect you to be betting awful hands a lot of the time and call you down very light, making this a good spot to value bet.

There are a few problems with this line of thinking Rogg. First of all, if your opponent is as bad as you say he is, you can't give him credit for this kind of multiple level analysis. Second, your actual hand on 6th is way worse than the hand you are representing. Given the action on previous streets, when you bet on 7th, I think he is very likely to think "he is betting his made 7 or 6 for value".

I am not saying that I never bet my hand vs. his board - I just don't in this situation. The only way I bet is if I feel the strength of my hand is discredited in some way. For example, if I had entered this hand in steal position then I would probably bet this river and expect him to call me down lighter. Also, if I showed weakness/played this hand awkwardly and given my opponent a good reason to think I was full of it then I would also probably bet.

In this situation, however, I believe you have played your hand exactly the same way you would've played a made 7. Your opponent isn't calling you down to 7th because he thinks you are floating - he is calling you down to 7th because he has a very big draw. On 7th, one of two things is going to happen:

1. He is going to hit a better hand than you
2. He is going to hit a worse hand than you

In the case of #1, he is at least calling EVERY time, and raising a lot of the time. In case #2, he is making a J, Q, or K and has to be the biggest retard in the world to call you down given how this hand has played out. Therefore, betting is pointless - worse hands fold, better hands play...

Like I said before, the only way I bet in this specific situation is if my opponent is good, and I want to keep him on his toes. Now if you check and he bets, you have a tough decision on your hands. I would base my decision a lot on the speed of his bet... an instabet in this spot is virtually never a bluff...

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
But if you read my other post I *should* be getting action from worse hands, if he thinks I am still drawing on 6th. Ok, if this guy is the typical weak-tight river player I'm perhaps not getting great value, but as I said in this case I should definitely bet any total river brick, so this can't be "horrible" no matter which player type he is.

[/ QUOTE ]
The issue in this hand between bluffing the river or betting it for value is that when you bluff you're laying 1BB to win the pot, but when you value bet you're laying 1BB to win 1BB. With a pot this size, a bluff only has to work 14%+ of the time to show a profit, but a value bet has to be called and won 50%+ and raised 0% (or the calls have to be even more frequent if you may be raised).