The edge of seeing one card-framed through WSOP example

[David Sklansky]

Suppose in a 5000 player 10K field, a player who would normally be rated about 500 was able to see the bottom card every time. Suppose further that he was a very smart guy who was able to figure out all the ways he could make use of this situation (originally I was going to ask this question with a specific name attached, like Chen or me, but I don't want personality to influence it.)

Would this guy turn into the most likely player to win?

[George Rice]

I doubt it. He probably won't even be favorite to make the final table.

How often would seeing the bottom card change his decisions? Probably only a few times a day.

He would no doubt move up, but I think there is enough of a difference between the top 10 and 500 that he won't gain enough.

Perhaps he will crack the top 50.

[paperjam]

The advantage would be slight. In a system of infinite events, assuming equal skill, he would come out ahead.

[George Rice]

By the way, any player who was smart enough to figure out all the ways to take advantage of this situation, such as yourself or Mr. Chen, probably already has a math and logic advantage over most of the field, including those ranked higher. If such a person is "only" ranked 500th, then the players at the top possess other skills that put them there (hand reading, tells, etc.). I don't know that this extra knowledge will add all that much in such a case.

Just a thought.

[HandCracker]

i think he would gain a slight advantage at knowing outs which could help his decisions throughout each hand.
and i thnk yes, he would be the most likely player to win since no one else in the tournament has any of these advantages he has an imidiate advantage as soon as the tournament starts.

[Sanchez1Fan]

i'm so good that it would be an advantage for me if he was at my table because just by looking at him, i would know what card was on the bottom [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[creedofhubris]

As a wild guess, that would give a 5% edge tops. So it depends on how much edge #1 has over #500.

[OJCIT]

I would think that the majority of the time, the card showing had no influence on the player's optimal strategy. It would occasionally be useful, but I doubt it's enough of an edge to push that player to the top of the field, all other things being equal

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
As a wild guess, that would give a 5% edge tops. So it depends on how much edge #1 has over #500.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think this would be enough to push #50 over #1 in a 500 person tournament, much less a 5000 person tournament (assuming very tough fields). But I think the difference between #1 and #500 of basically the best players in the world is too great. Although this may be because I'm not smart enough to imagine the multitude of ways that this information would be useful. Also if it were a 5000 person Pokerstars tourney, it might be a different story.

[PokrLikeItsProse]

I don't think that you can answer this question without:

a) trying to come up with a guess of the difference in edge between the 1st and 500th player in a 5000 person field

b) coming up with as many as possible of the situations in which knowing the bottom card helps a player.

A few people have made steps in the direction of a, but no one has even bothered to come up with a few examples for b, such as folding a small pair because your set possibilities have been cut in half, a situation that will come up 1/25 times you are dealt a pair, or not playing two big cards because one of your cards is gone, or being more inclined to bluff when an ace is dead and an ace flops and your opponent bets out.

It doesn't affect many hands because you're still going to fold 72o in early position almost all the time, no matter what bottom card is. I would guess that most of the time that you are calling or making a semi-bluff raise with a flush draw, it isn't significant to know the bottom card (that is, it won't change your action).

So, let's assume that 80% of hands will play out almost automatically, such as folding pre-flop or raising pre-flop in an almost mandatory steal situation and taking the pot right there, no matter what the bottom card is. Of the other 20% of hands, how often are you in a situation when the bottom card matters. If it is 1 out of 100 hands (a number I completely made up and am not claiming is the truth), then you have an additional edge once every 500 hands dealt at your table, and that edge is sometimes folding when you would otherwise call. Does the best player in the world distinguish himself from the 500th best more than once every 500 hands? More than once every 300 hands?