[150NL] 88 Flopped set 550bb's Deep

Lucky · #1 11-23-2007, 04:32 AM

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ikes, villain has AK and shoves the river for like 300 big blinds. what's he expecting a call from ... A8? clearly there's some point at which you fold this (even getting 2.5:1). 500 big blinds? 1000 big blinds? hero has a set, but hero doesn't have the nuts.

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who said that it was a good push?

2 combos AA
2 combos KK
2 combos 44
9 combos AK

We lose to AA, KK... beat 44. If he plays AK this way 20% of the time... its a call. i rest my case.

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Actually, there are 3 hand combos of AA, KK, and 44, so given your example, he need to have AK 3 of 9 times.

But really, on the river, you're getting better than 2 to 1 to call, so even if he only has a set, it's a call here.

MichaelBolton777 · #2 11-23-2007, 03:22 PM

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ikes, villain has AK and shoves the river for like 300 big blinds. what's he expecting a call from ... A8? clearly there's some point at which you fold this (even getting 2.5:1). 500 big blinds? 1000 big blinds? hero has a set, but hero doesn't have the nuts.

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who said that it was a good push?

2 combos AA
2 combos KK
2 combos 44
9 combos AK

We lose to AA, KK... beat 44. If he plays AK this way 20% of the time... its a call. i rest my case.

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Actually, there are 3 hand combos of AA, KK, and 44, so given your example, he need to have AK 3 of 9 times.

But really, on the river, you're getting better than 2 to 1 to call, so even if he only has a set, it's a call here.

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again, i think this decision should be made once 3 bet on turn, so we are not getting 2 to 1ish, but 3 to 7ish, instead (i guess once you get to riv, you have to use 2 to 1, making the decision a lot harder). Now we have to be right around 40% of the time. Weighting his hand to some degree away from AK, and slightly away from 44 (assuming he might not raise this utg as a 12% pfr), it seems like a clear fold to me at 1/2 against this player...where am i wrong??

Shizzle12345 · #3 11-23-2007, 03:30 PM

if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

Keyser. · #4 11-23-2007, 06:33 PM

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if you consider folding this dont play 500BB's deep... Seriously, this is the reason why i dont like to play more then 300-400BB deep unless i got 3984092384039 buyins for that level. If you did fold this please leave the table the next hand..

Id snap call this.

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This is really not the issue. I think a better point is "don't play 550 bbs deep if you mindlessly stack off with same hands as you do when 100 bbs deep."

cs3 · #5 11-23-2007, 06:42 PM

for all those saying this is an easy river call i challenge you to find a single hand from .5/1NL - 2/4NL and post teh HH where either:
1) a TAG gets all in with 2 pairs for over 500+ bb's or
2) a TAG gets in 500+ bb's after the turn with bottom set or less

Fonkey123 · #6 11-23-2007, 07:04 PM

I agree with ike (what a surprise) except for the fact that hero's line looks so massively strong I'd be very worried as villain.

That said the villain hardly ever doesn't push AK in the moment.

cs3 · #7 11-23-2007, 07:14 PM

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That said the villain hardly ever doesn't push AK in the moment.

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so some tag gets to the turn with only 35 BB's in the pot and sees that his TPTK just improved to top 2 pair...
and he 3 bets the turn for over 200BB's, gets called there but isnt alarmed, and then still shoves over 300BB's more on the river with AK?
just because hes "in the moment"?

cs3 · #8 11-23-2007, 07:52 PM

also, still waiting to see a reply to this challenge:

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for all those saying this is an easy river call i challenge you to find a single hand from .5/1NL - 2/4NL and post teh HH where either:
1) a TAG gets all in with 2 pairs for over 500+ bb's or
2) a TAG gets in 500+ bb's after the turn with bottom set or less

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go ahead look in any .5/1 - 2/4 data base you can get your hands on. if this is an autocall it should be pretty easy to find at last one example. $20 star transfer to the first person that posts a legit HH

edit - guess i should end this lets say saturday, 11/24/07 at midnight just in case it gets dug up 3 years from now...

loosbastard · #9 11-23-2007, 08:42 PM

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I see set-over-set like 5 times a week, and I don't even play much...wtf. How is this so sick? Because we're deep?

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adfksdgkfdg...this thread is making my head asplode. Of course it's because we're deep. Saying his range doesn't change "just because we're deep" is absolutely ridiculous.

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Villains never check/fold top 2 on the river and usually 3 bets the turn as well with AK. Once at the river I can hardly ever see him not shoving top 2.

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And what is he expecting to get value from? Shoving AK is super super thin w/ these stacks. I mean what does he put us on after calling the turn 3-bet? We have 444/888 here practically every single time.

bilbo-san · #10 11-23-2007, 10:07 PM

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also, still waiting to see a reply to this challenge:

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for all those saying this is an easy river call i challenge you to find a single hand from .5/1NL - 2/4NL and post teh HH where either:
1) a TAG gets all in with 2 pairs for over 500+ bb's or
2) a TAG gets in 500+ bb's after the turn with bottom set or less

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Again, 90% or SSNLers play 100BB buy-in games.

500BB effective stacks on 100BB tables are so rare that the sample size for this is nowhere close to big enough for this "challenge" to mean anything.

Add to that the fact that players where the max buyin is 200BBs stack off lighter than where the max buyin is 100BBs and both villains built up a 500BB stack.

Deep stacks in a 100BB game != deep stacks in a deep-stacked game.