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Variance Please Help
Before this variance occured, I was winning 1-2 ring game limit poker for 40k hands at 2.8 bb's/100. However, even though I was winning I did not give up my poker education. I kept reading new books and re-reading good material. However, recently I am suffering huge variance. It seems that I cannot win any longer. Please post some advice. Thanks!
[img=http://img387.imageshack.us/img387/3576/mydownswingfl0.th.jpg] Here are some examples. These are some that occured today when I was playing my 1k hands session. POKERSTARS GAME #10256586810: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 19:57:47 (ET) Table 'Dresda' 10-max Seat #9 is the button Seat 1: Oligarch ($87.75 in chips) Seat 2: UtopBuzzsaw ($53.50 in chips) Seat 3: PeaceDeath ($31.50 in chips) Seat 5: samodai ($65.50 in chips) Seat 6: hevero2244 ($23 in chips) Seat 7: JaneTheHot ($40 in chips) Seat 8: briguy1969 ($75.25 in chips) Seat 9: j jablonsky ($110.25 in chips) Seat 10: Jurgy ($15.75 in chips) Jurgy: posts small blind $0.50 Oligarch: posts big blind $1 Magic Wizz: sits out *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ad Ac] UtopBuzzsaw: folds PeaceDeath: folds samodai: folds hevero2244: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 briguy1969: raises $1 to $3 j jablonsky: folds Jurgy: folds Oligarch: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $4 Betting is capped briguy1969: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [5h Ks 3d] JaneTheHot: bets $1 briguy1969: calls $1 *** TURN *** [5h Ks 3d] [9h] JaneTheHot: bets $2 briguy1969: raises $2 to $4 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [5h Ks 3d 9h] [Jd] JaneTheHot: checks briguy1969: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** briguy1969: shows [Kh Kc] (three of a kind, Kings) JaneTheHot: mucks hand briguy1969 collected $22.50 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $23.50 | Rake $1 Board [5h Ks 3d 9h Jd] Seat 1: Oligarch (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 2: UtopBuzzsaw folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: PeaceDeath folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: hevero2244 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: JaneTheHot mucked [Ad Ac] Seat 8: briguy1969 showed [Kh Kc] and won ($22.50) with three of a kind, Kings Seat 9: j jablonsky (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: Jurgy (small blind) folded before Flop POKERSTARS GAME #10256545191: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 19:55:13 (ET) Table 'Callisto II' 10-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: samodai ($56.50 in chips) Seat 2: hevero2244 ($41.75 in chips) Seat 3: pathog3n ($33.25 in chips) Seat 4: JaneTheHot ($114.50 in chips) Seat 5: tp12680 ($35.50 in chips) Seat 6: BFO_2005 ($39 in chips) Seat 8: TheApprentic ($62.75 in chips) Seat 9: britleadfoot ($46 in chips) Seat 10: Rhashark ($78.75 in chips) MyLuckyGirls will be allowed to play after the button pathog3n said, "lol" TheApprentic: posts small blind $0.50 britleadfoot: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ad As] pathog3n said, "poon" Rhashark has timed out Rhashark: folds Rhashark is sitting out samodai: folds hevero2244: calls $1 pathog3n: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 tp12680: folds BFO_2005: calls $2 TheApprentic: folds britleadfoot: calls $1 hevero2244: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [Td 3h 8c] britleadfoot: checks hevero2244: bets $1 JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 BFO_2005: calls $2 britleadfoot: folds hevero2244: calls $1 *** TURN *** [Td 3h 8c] [2h] hevero2244: checks JaneTheHot: bets $2 BFO_2005: raises $2 to $4 hevero2244: calls $4 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [Td 3h 8c 2h] [6s] hevero2244: checks JaneTheHot: checks BFO_2005: bets $2 hevero2244: folds JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** BFO_2005: shows [8s 8d] (three of a kind, Eights) JaneTheHot: mucks hand BFO_2005 collected $29.50 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $30.50 | Rake $1 Board [Td 3h 8c 2h 6s] Seat 1: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: hevero2244 folded on the River Seat 3: pathog3n folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: JaneTheHot mucked [Ad As] Seat 5: tp12680 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: BFO_2005 (button) showed [8s 8d] and won ($29.50) with three of a kind, Eights Seat 8: TheApprentic (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 9: britleadfoot (big blind) folded on the Flop Seat 10: Rhashark folded before Flop (didn't bet) POKERSTARS GAME #10253348228: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 16:31:03 (ET) Table 'Lycomedes' 10-max Seat #10 is the button Seat 2: polochips ($29.75 in chips) Seat 3: Nexus6mAA ($36 in chips) Seat 4: MJHmale ($42.25 in chips) Seat 5: Tobbax ($36 in chips) Seat 6: squallA964 ($105.25 in chips) Seat 8: samodai ($33.75 in chips) Seat 10: JaneTheHot ($50 in chips) Wild Niņo will be allowed to play after the button polochips: posts small blind $0.50 Nexus6mAA: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ac Ad] MJHmale: folds Tobbax: folds squallA964: folds samodai: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 polochips: folds Nexus6mAA: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [Ah 8h 5s] Nexus6mAA: bets $1 JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 Nexus6mAA: calls $1 *** TURN *** [Ah 8h 5s] [6c] Nexus6mAA: checks JaneTheHot: bets $2 Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $4 JaneTheHot: raises $2 to $6 Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $8 Betting is capped JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [Ah 8h 5s 6c] [7d] Nexus6mAA: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** Nexus6mAA: shows [7s 9s] (a straight, Five to Nine) JaneTheHot: mucks hand Nexus6mAA collected $27.50 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $28.50 | Rake $1 Board [Ah 8h 5s 6c 7d] Seat 2: polochips (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: Nexus6mAA (big blind) showed [7s 9s] and won ($27.50) with a straight, Five to Nine Seat 4: MJHmale folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: Tobbax folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: squallA964 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: JaneTheHot (button) mucked [Ac Ad] POKERSTARS GAME #10253330655: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 16:30:03 (ET) Table 'Scorpius IV' 10-max Seat #1 is the button Seat 1: samodai ($24 in chips) Seat 2: trachta ($37 in chips) Seat 4: hooked177 ($234.50 in chips) Seat 5: JaneTheHot ($65.75 in chips) Seat 6: mhorseman ($35.50 in chips) Seat 7: Dices_74 ($72.25 in chips) Seat 8: DonBlech ($42.50 in chips) Seat 9: kflb ($94 in chips) Seat 10: --HGII-- ($40 in chips) trachta: posts small blind $0.50 DeMoriaan: is sitting out hooked177: posts big blind $1 --HGII--: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ks Kc] DeMoriaan leaves the table JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 mhorseman: folds Dices_74: calls $2 DonBlech: folds kflb: folds --HGII--: calls $1 samodai: raises $1 to $3 trachta: folds hooked177: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $4 Betting is capped Dices_74: calls $2 --HGII--: calls $2 samodai: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [3h 9c 5h] JaneTheHot: bets $1 Dices_74: calls $1 --HGII--: calls $1 samodai: raises $1 to $2 JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $3 Dices_74: folds --HGII--: calls $2 samodai: calls $1 *** TURN *** [3h 9c 5h] [4s] JaneTheHot: checks --HGII--: checks samodai: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 --HGII--: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [3h 9c 5h 4s] [Jh] JaneTheHot: checks --HGII--: checks samodai: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 --HGII--: folds *** SHOW DOWN *** samodai: shows [Ah Ad] (a pair of Aces) JaneTheHot: mucks hand samodai collected $36.50 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $37.50 | Rake $1 Board [3h 9c 5h 4s Jh] Seat 1: samodai (button) showed [Ah Ad] and won ($36.50) with a pair of Aces Seat 2: trachta (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 4: hooked177 (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 5: JaneTheHot mucked [Ks Kc] Seat 6: mhorseman folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: Dices_74 folded on the Flop Seat 8: DonBlech folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: kflb folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: --HGII-- folded on the River POKERSTARS GAME #10252849511: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 16:02:00 (ET) Table 'Ehrsson' 10-max Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: JaneTheHot ($58.50 in chips) Seat 2: Dices_74 ($34.50 in chips) Seat 3: ToJoBo123 ($36.50 in chips) Seat 4: gshep ($23.75 in chips) Seat 5: samodai ($25.50 in chips) Seat 6: davymax ($70 in chips) Seat 7: mikehorse ($47.50 in chips) Seat 8: DonBlech ($44.75 in chips) Seat 9: uptomynek ($12 in chips) Seat 10: draftman100 ($79.25 in chips) samodai: posts small blind $0.50 davymax: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Kd Ks] mikehorse: calls $1 DonBlech: folds uptomynek: folds draftman100: calls $1 JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 Dices_74: folds ToJoBo123: folds gshep: folds samodai: folds davymax: folds mikehorse: calls $1 draftman100: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [Th Ad Qd] mikehorse: checks draftman100: checks JaneTheHot: bets $1 mikehorse: calls $1 draftman100: calls $1 *** TURN *** [Th Ad Qd] [2h] mikehorse: checks draftman100: checks JaneTheHot: checks *** RIVER *** [Th Ad Qd 2h] [Qh] mikehorse: checks draftman100: checks JaneTheHot: checks *** SHOW DOWN *** mikehorse: shows [Ah 9d] (two pair, Aces and Queens) draftman100: mucks hand JaneTheHot: mucks hand mikehorse collected $10 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $10.50 | Rake $0.50 Board [Th Ad Qd 2h Qh] Seat 1: JaneTheHot mucked [Kd Ks] Seat 2: Dices_74 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: ToJoBo123 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: gshep (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: samodai (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 6: davymax (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 7: mikehorse showed [Ah 9d] and won ($10) with two pair, Aces and Queens Seat 8: DonBlech folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: uptomynek folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: draftman100 mucked [Jc 9c] POKERSTARS GAME #10252590816: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 15:47:17 (ET) Table 'Minerva' 10-max Seat #7 is the button Seat 1: BigSmooth13 ($38.75 in chips) Seat 2: Jet Fluid ($36.50 in chips) Seat 3: davymax ($3.50 in chips) Seat 4: Oligarch ($37.75 in chips) Seat 5: jo-tk ($46.50 in chips) Seat 6: fortune1 ($40 in chips) Seat 7: samodai ($39 in chips) Seat 8: JaneTheHot ($118.25 in chips) Seat 9: briguy1969 ($112.75 in chips) Seat 10: dtrst ($27 in chips) JaneTheHot: posts small blind $0.50 briguy1969: posts big blind $1 fortune1: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ks Kh] dtrst: folds BigSmooth13: folds Jet Fluid: raises $1 to $2 davymax: folds Oligarch: folds jo-tk: folds fortune1: folds samodai: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $3 briguy1969: folds Jet Fluid: raises $1 to $4 Betting is capped JaneTheHot: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [8s 3s Js] JaneTheHot: bets $1 Jet Fluid: raises $1 to $2 JaneTheHot: calls $1 *** TURN *** [8s 3s Js] [2s] JaneTheHot: checks Jet Fluid: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [8s 3s Js 2s] [3d] JaneTheHot: checks Jet Fluid: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** Jet Fluid: shows [As Ah] (a flush, Ace high) JaneTheHot: mucks hand Jet Fluid collected $21 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $22 | Rake $1 Board [8s 3s Js 2s 3d] Seat 1: BigSmooth13 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 2: Jet Fluid showed [As Ah] and won ($21) with a flush, Ace high Seat 3: davymax folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: Oligarch folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: jo-tk folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: fortune1 folded before Flop Seat 7: samodai (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: JaneTheHot (small blind) mucked [Ks Kh] Seat 9: briguy1969 (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 10: dtrst folded before Flop (didn't bet) POKERSTARS GAME #10253348228: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 16:31:03 (ET) Table 'Lycomedes' 10-max Seat #10 is the button Seat 2: polochips ($29.75 in chips) Seat 3: Nexus6mAA ($36 in chips) Seat 4: MJHmale ($42.25 in chips) Seat 5: Tobbax ($36 in chips) Seat 6: squallA964 ($105.25 in chips) Seat 8: samodai ($33.75 in chips) Seat 10: JaneTheHot ($50 in chips) Wild Niņo will be allowed to play after the button polochips: posts small blind $0.50 Nexus6mAA: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ac Ad] MJHmale: folds Tobbax: folds squallA964: folds samodai: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 polochips: folds Nexus6mAA: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [Ah 8h 5s] Nexus6mAA: bets $1 JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 Nexus6mAA: calls $1 *** TURN *** [Ah 8h 5s] [6c] Nexus6mAA: checks JaneTheHot: bets $2 Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $4 JaneTheHot: raises $2 to $6 Nexus6mAA: raises $2 to $8 Betting is capped JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [Ah 8h 5s 6c] [7d] Nexus6mAA: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** Nexus6mAA: shows [7s 9s] (a straight, Five to Nine) JaneTheHot: mucks hand Nexus6mAA collected $27.50 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $28.50 | Rake $1 Board [Ah 8h 5s 6c 7d] Seat 2: polochips (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 3: Nexus6mAA (big blind) showed [7s 9s] and won ($27.50) with a straight, Five to Nine Seat 4: MJHmale folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: Tobbax folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: squallA964 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: JaneTheHot (button) mucked [Ac Ad] POKERSTARS GAME #10249581212: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 12:49:03 (ET) Table 'Lycomedes' 10-max Seat #4 is the button Seat 1: Tzen1 ($39 in chips) Seat 2: robby195 ($17 in chips) Seat 3: angelmartin ($32 in chips) Seat 4: phlopen ($11 in chips) Seat 5: hotMccoffee ($70.50 in chips) Seat 6: NRGJ ($40 in chips) Seat 7: Markomanne ($39 in chips) Seat 8: - Zoe - ($30.50 in chips) Seat 9: samodai ($40.50 in chips) Seat 10: JaneTheHot ($50.50 in chips) hotMccoffee: posts small blind $0.50 NRGJ: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [9h 9d] Markomanne: folds - Zoe -: folds samodai: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 Tzen1: calls $2 robby195: folds angelmartin: folds phlopen: folds hotMccoffee: calls $1.50 NRGJ: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [Td 3s 9c] hotMccoffee: checks NRGJ: checks JaneTheHot: bets $1 Tzen1: folds hotMccoffee: calls $1 NRGJ: calls $1 *** TURN *** [Td 3s 9c] [8d] hotMccoffee: checks NRGJ: checks JaneTheHot: bets $2 hotMccoffee: raises $2 to $4 NRGJ: folds JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** RIVER *** [Td 3s 9c 8d] [2c] hotMccoffee: bets $2 JaneTheHot: calls $2 *** SHOW DOWN *** hotMccoffee: shows [Qc Jd] (a straight, Eight to Queen) JaneTheHot: mucks hand hotMccoffee collected $22 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $23 | Rake $1 Board [Td 3s 9c 8d 2c] Seat 1: Tzen1 folded on the Flop Seat 2: robby195 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: angelmartin folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 4: phlopen (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: hotMccoffee (small blind) showed [Qc Jd] and won ($22) with a straight, Eight to Queen Seat 6: NRGJ (big blind) folded on the Turn Seat 7: Markomanne folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 8: - Zoe - folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 9: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 10: JaneTheHot mucked [9h 9d] POKERSTARS GAME #10253113894: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($1/$2) - 2007/06/03 - 16:17:22 (ET) Table 'Ehrsson' 10-max Seat #6 is the button Seat 1: JaneTheHot ($51 in chips) Seat 2: Dices_74 ($39.75 in chips) Seat 3: ToJoBo123 ($35.75 in chips) Seat 4: gshep ($14.25 in chips) Seat 5: samodai ($36.75 in chips) Seat 6: badronald ($16 in chips) Seat 7: pkuchie ($30.25 in chips) Seat 8: DonBlech ($45 in chips) Seat 9: uptomynek ($3.50 in chips) Seat 10: draftman100 ($83 in chips) pkuchie: posts small blind $0.50 DonBlech: posts big blind $1 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to JaneTheHot [Ah Jh] uptomynek: calls $1 draftman100: folds JaneTheHot: raises $1 to $2 Dices_74: folds ToJoBo123: calls $2 gshep: folds samodai: folds badronald: folds pkuchie: folds DonBlech: folds uptomynek: raises $1 to $3 JaneTheHot: calls $1 ToJoBo123: calls $1 *** FLOP *** [5s Qs Qd] uptomynek: bets $0.50 and is all-in JaneTheHot: calls $0.50 ToJoBo123: folds *** TURN *** [5s Qs Qd] [Jc] *** RIVER *** [5s Qs Qd Jc] [Js] *** SHOW DOWN *** uptomynek: shows [Ac 2c] (two pair, Queens and Jacks) JaneTheHot: shows [Ah Jh] (a full house, Jacks full of Queens) JaneTheHot collected $11 from pot *** SUMMARY *** Total pot $11.50 | Rake $0.50 Board [5s Qs Qd Jc Js] Seat 1: JaneTheHot showed [Ah Jh] and won ($11) with a full house, Jacks full of Queens Seat 2: Dices_74 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 3: ToJoBo123 folded on the Flop Seat 4: gshep folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 5: samodai folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 6: badronald (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet) Seat 7: pkuchie (small blind) folded before Flop Seat 8: DonBlech (big blind) folded before Flop Seat 9: uptomynek showed [Ac 2c] and lost with two pair, Queens and Jacks Seat 10: draftman100 folded before Flop (didn't bet) Again, these are some of the hands... Please suggest something. |
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Re: Variance Please Help
anyone?
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Re: Variance Please Help
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#4
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Re: Variance Please Help
thanks for the great response... just waht I needed [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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Re: Variance Please Help
jane, everyone goes through downswings, and they suck.
take a break from poker if you need to. go down a limit if the money bothers you. play fewer tables and get better reads. analyze your play afterwards. if you're really getting 2 outered there's not much you can do, obviously, and you know that already, but if you start tilting and making bad calldowns or stupid bluffs afterwards, that is fixable. good luck pulling out of it. post lots of hands on here. respond to people's posts. keep improving. |
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Re: Variance Please Help
also, without turning this into a competition, there are lots of players (myself included) who've played way more hands and had much bigger swings, both up and down. the more you play, the more you understand variance and realize it comes with the territory.
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Re: Variance Please Help
This post is incredibly terrible educate.
My advice: find a softer game. |
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Re: Variance Please Help
I'm down 150BBs in my last 3k hands. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]
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#9
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Re: Variance Please Help
I was amazed by the variance I had myself as well at the 1/2 Limit game at PokerStars especially since 0,50/1 was easy to beat for me, ofcourse with ups and downs. 1/2 so far breaks even after 17K hands, which also means I need a little more hands before I can really say something about my play. I also already adjusted some small things and this seems to work (was down about 150 BB before). I'm also down to 4 tables, where I played 6 to 8 at 0,50/1, I want to be confident about my play first before I open more tables or move up.
I think the huge variance comes with Limit/FR and a lot of Tight opponents. I also notice it really matters what times you play, since sometimes it's just full of regulars which all seems to break even but you won't find an edge there yourself. I don't see a lot of people really winning on these limits, I guess most regulars just play 1/2 because they like it and all the better players are either moved up, playing 6 max or moved site. Which means you have a really small edge vs the regulars, who you might beat, but this will come with big variance. I will check my PokerTracker for stats on you and might see some things. But I don't think I really have a lot of hands to say something other then that I have the same sort of graph. |
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Re: Variance Please Help
Thank you for your responses. What is a reasonable downswing that I should expect?
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