#131
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
Ok. Exponential is definitely not a good fit. A much better fit is parabolic. Here's a couple of slightly different fit techniques and projections for the month. According to this projection, the target would be missed by about $1.2M. However, I expect a big surge near the end of the month. Don't know if they'll make it. Like I said; $12M for the quarter was too aggressive, imo. I'm pretty sure I could fit this better by adding a weekly sinusoidal modulation, but I'm lazy. [/ QUOTE ] Parabolic is almost never a good fit for projecting the future, and to a trained eye your graph doesn't look like a good fit at all. Polynomials are very good at fitting points, and very bad at forecasting. |
#132
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
BTW, my donations to Ron Paul amounted to $300 this quarter.
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#133
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] Ok. Exponential is definitely not a good fit. A much better fit is parabolic. Here's a couple of slightly different fit techniques and projections for the month. According to this projection, the target would be missed by about $1.2M. However, I expect a big surge near the end of the month. Don't know if they'll make it. Like I said; $12M for the quarter was too aggressive, imo. I'm pretty sure I could fit this better by adding a weekly sinusoidal modulation, but I'm lazy. [/ QUOTE ] Parabolic is almost never a good fit for projecting the future, and to a trained eye your graph doesn't look like a good fit at all. Polynomials are very good at fitting points, and very bad at forecasting. [/ QUOTE ] I know. None of my "predictions" are worth the electrons it takes to display them. But it's fun to play with data. I will say that claiming it isn't a good fit at all is a bit much. A parabola + a weekly sinusoid of slowly increasing amplitude is an almost perfect fit for the first three weeks of the month. The past few days have gone to hell though. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]. |
#134
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
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BTW, my donations to Ron Paul amounted to $300 this quarter. [/ QUOTE ] $2630! |
#135
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
n/m
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#136
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
***CELEBRITY DONATION ALERT***
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#137
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
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***CELEBRITY DONATION ALERT*** [/ QUOTE ] Lol. I wonder if it's him? |
#138
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
But I thought the reason that people are attracted to supporting RP was because of his hate speech? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]
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#139
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
There was an anti-war meeting/protest/get together today at my school. There were about 7 tables with Ron Paul info and just a single guy splitting his table to support Kucinich and Obama. The Ron Paul supporters had numerous hand-made signs and were handing out flyers. It was really amazing to see how much support RP is getting.
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#140
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Re: The Ron Paul Fundraising Challenge
Man, the fund raising for Ron Paul seems to be stalling this week (ignoring that chunk of off-line contributions loaded yesterday). We're on course for three terrible days in a row when it comes to on-line contributions. Hopefully it's just due to donors being tapped out from the recent pushes, and/or saving it up for November 5th.
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