Stars 50 NL - How often does Villain have a flush here?

QuattroFour4 · #1 06-01-2007, 12:48 AM

No read on Villain just yet. Turn action?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

BB ($24.50)
UTG ($99.15)
MP ($39.35)
CO ($23.30)
Hero ($56.75)
SB : Villain ($21.60)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
2 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, SB Villain calls $2, BB calls $1.75, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($9) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
Villain bets $2, BB folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $6.5, Villain calls $4.50.

Turn: ($22) J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Villain checks, Hero?

filsteal · #2 06-01-2007, 12:51 AM

Often enough to where I'd check behind here.

You need to raise a lot more on the flop here, like to $12.

corsakh · #3 06-01-2007, 12:56 AM

Bet. A weak K is just as likely. Giving him a free card you just let him draw to one card flush.

Antinome · #4 06-01-2007, 12:58 AM

And KJ beats us too now. def check behind.

relativity_x · #5 06-01-2007, 01:07 AM

If you check here, he's pushing the river 80% of the time here since his stack is 11 into a 22 pot.

With his weak bet into the flop, I'd read it as one of two things, (1) a blocking bet for a flush draw, or (2) a scared mid PP of the king.

So you have to ask yourself. Do you call his river push? If so, bet 15 on the turn and make him call you. If you're not going to call the river, check turn/fold to his push on the river.

pkrplyrX · #6 06-01-2007, 01:10 AM

I don't think you will be looking at a flush here very often, maybe 20%-25% of the time. I doubt someone would lead into 3 people with a draw like that, even though this small bet is sometimes made to try to see a cheap turn.

It seems to me that you were scared of a set so you only raised $4.5 into a $13 pot.

I flat call the $2 bet on this flop for a few reasons:
1)You only have 1 pair and you do not want to build a huge pot
2)Oftentimes people lead small with a set hoping for a big reraise by top pair or an overpair
3)Now when the flush hits it looks like you have the draw which scares your opponent and gives you control of the pot

The way the hand plays out though, I would just check this turn. The only hands you can beat are KQ/KT. If the villian pushes in on the river after the check behind, I would fold since he is saying he has better than KQ/KT.