HSNL prop bet

[palman]

currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

[Kala1928]

I dont think its possible to win 4(four) buyins multitabling 6max .5/1NL in just 5(five) hours, sorry but nobody is going to go for this bet.

[Post-Oak]

[ QUOTE ]
currently we're an hour and thirty minutes into a 5 hour prop bet.

The bet is this:

a HSNL player (10/20 regular) has to play no more than 5 tables of .5/1 6 max on FT. If at any time he is up $400, he wins $400. If he fails to reach the target, he owes the $400. He has 5 hours to play.

Who's got the best side of the bet? Realize that the participant is obviously drinking, and not going to take it all that seriously. Furthermore, the games are significantly tougher than you'd imagine a .5/1 game being. Most of the opponents won't donk off a stack with any QJ,KJ type top pair hand.

What's the EV for all participants?

This all started because I found out I had $48 in my FT account and ran it up to 2k. I decided I'd run it up to 10k but I'm having problems at the low stakes. Obviously I'm thinking I'm making a grand a day and my roommates are snickering at me when I complain about the games.

[/ QUOTE ]

You have way the best of it.

Let's say his winrate is 10 Poker Tracker Big Blinds (PTBB) per 100 hands. This means 20 BBs, which is $20. He can play 5 tables at most, so let's say he play 350 hands per hour. That means his expected profit in one hour of play is $70, and $350 for his full 5 hours. Of course, I was very generous to assume a win rate as high as 10 PTBB and a hands played rate of 350/hour.

Now obviously variance means he definitely could win $400 or more in 5 hours, but I think it's clear that his chances are less than 50%.

[Apathy]

P-Oak,

Ill bet any amount you want (4k minimum-25k max) that I can do this. Ill even give you even money.

[ahnuld]

Worst bet ever. Any competent HSNL player can easily do this without even focusing.

[MDMA]

Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

[ahnuld]

I have 4k swings at 1000$ nl every day, and I never play more than 4 hours a day, normally 8 tabling. I dont need to finish up that amount after 4 hours, just hit it once. Im sure ill catch some sort of + variance by sheer fluke.

Ill prop bet it myself with you MDMA if you want, although I admit it will be hard to verify and basically if we do make a bet you would just have to trust my honest.

[wtfsvi]

[ QUOTE ]
Uhm, is it only me or does those calculations that Post-Oak presented do seem reasonable, if so I just can't see how you can expect to run at 10ptbb for 5 hours, I just don't get what you are saying ahnuld, how this is "easily doable without even concentrating", sounds like total BS to me.

Obviously this is doable, just can't figure out how you can ever EXPECT to do it more than 50%.

[/ QUOTE ] If the bet is for enough money it makes sense to alter your play to increase variance after X hours if you are not close to your goal. And you can quit whenver you reach it. I think a good strategy for this bet and an excellent player should put the chances over 50%.

[Post-Oak]

You guys bring up some good points. I was aware that I wasn't able to calculate the exact % chance of succes given my assumptions plus an assumed standard deviation, because I wouldn't know how to do the math. In other words, I wasn't sure how much of an effect the variance would have over the 5 hour period.

So the point that he can quit anytime he hits the $400 is mark is well taken. The idea that he can up his variance in case of emergency (time running out or he's down big) is also a good one.

However, I still disagree that it can be done with your "eyes closed".

I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

[Gregg777]

[ QUOTE ]
I am no longer convinced it is +EV for 4 buyins. What if we said $550 instead of $400? I would then be interested in betting. Since you guys think $400 is so easy, I assume you would be willing to consider 5.5 buy-ins instead.

[/ QUOTE ]