the 2nd nuts, first for low then for high.

Olrik · #1 10-18-2007, 01:50 PM

no specific reads. table vpip was 60+

PokerStars 0.10/0.20 Omaha/8 (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, MP1 calls, Hero calls, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (6 SB) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets, CO raises, SB calls, BB calls, UTG folds, MP1 calls, Hero calls.

Turn: (8 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (5 players)
SB checks, BB bets, MP1 folds, Hero calls, CO calls, SB folds.

River: (11 BB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB bets, Hero calls, CO calls.

Final Pot: 14 BB

on the flop with everybody checking i thought maybe im lucky and there is no A2 out there so i bet. CO raise indicates A2 but when the action comes back to me the pot is HUGE...

turn card is obviously really bad for my low but it gives me the 2nd nut high so i call.

river is basicly a blank for me as i play for the high only anyway so i call.

franknagaijr · #2 10-18-2007, 01:57 PM

Do you think this starting hand is not raise-worthy? Do other limit players feel this way? This seems like a prime candidate as one of those hands you raise for deception, so that your AAw and A2Wx raises are not completely transparent.

No comment on the rest. Seems ok to me, but I'm a donk.

emiderma · #3 10-18-2007, 02:08 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Do you think this starting hand is not raise-worthy? Do other limit players feel this way? This seems like a prime candidate as one of those hands you raise for deception, so that your AAw and A2Wx raises are not completely transparent.

[/ QUOTE ]

This does say .10 .20 FL correct? I doubt many players are looking for betting patters, and doubt there is any need to be sneaky. This hand is kinda marginal in MP, but definitly playable, I would almost never raise here PF.

Olrik · #4 10-18-2007, 02:16 PM

[ QUOTE ]

This does say .10 .20 FL correct?

[/ QUOTE ]

correct.

Buzz · #5 10-18-2007, 05:11 PM

Hi Olrik - There's no question about your calling a bet on the river, right?

If so, let's back up from there. Playing the turn correctly is the key to this hand.

On the turn, since you're more or less fairly certain you're also going to call the river bet, and that both opponents will also contribute a like amount to the pot, there will be 8+6 = 14 big bets in the pot at the showdown, and 2 of them will be henceforth yours.

Divide the pot in two and think of your half as being 7, with 2 of those being henceforth yours. Thus you’re getting 5 to 2 implied pot odds to continue. Over the long haul with this hand/board, you will break even if you win four out of ten times. Thus you need to expect to win more than four times out of ten to have a favorable expectation. You need to win better than 40%.

And how often should you expect to win high with this hand/board? Against two opponents, I think in the neighborhood of 92%.

92% is much more favorable than the 40% you need to call. Meanwhile, neither Villain may hold 2-5-X-Y for the wheel. If neither Villain has the wheel, might you knock them both out with a raise?

Specifically, if BB has ever bet a hand and then folded when he got raised, then you definitely should exploit this weak/tight play on other previous hands by raising on the turn. By doing so, you may upgrade your hand from a probable winner for high to a possible scooper.

Winning the 9 big bets already in the pot is better than getting half of 14 bets (of which 2 will henceforth be your own). And if they both call, far out!

Raise on the turn!!!

Buzz

Olrik · #6 10-18-2007, 06:09 PM

im not so sure about raising the turn. while ppl call ALOT on those limits they rarely bet without a solid holding. so basicly by raising on the flop CO says he has A2 and there is no reason not to believe him and absolutely no way to get him to fold it.

now BB bets the turn out of a sudden saying he likes his hand too and i doubt he would do it with a 2pair.

while i like the idea behind raising the turn i simply dont see any of them folding their low and i have to give the BB credit for some kind of a flush. even tho there is only the K high flush that beats me that would be a rather thin valueraise assuming i play for half the pot (and the possibility of the river pairing). worst case scenario could even be the BB folding his babyflush (doubt he would do that) and me splitting a smaller pot with the CO.

so assuming that non of the villian would fold a low that beats me would you still raise the turn?

Buzz · #7 10-19-2007, 01:46 AM

[ QUOTE ]
so assuming that non of the villian would fold a low that beats me would you still raise the turn?

[/ QUOTE ]Olrik - It's hard to say. What to do always depends on your opponents. And it's not crystal clear what these two will do if you raise.

You don't really want one opponent folding to your turn raise and the other calling with a 23XY low.

And you don't want the board pairing on the river. But if it doesn't, I think you probably have a winner. It's not certain because it's not the nuts, but I think there's a relatively low probability (~8%) that either of your opponents has the nuts for high here.

I guess I'd raise and hope they either both call or both fold. If I knew who they were, I might play it differently.

Buzz

brian64 · #8 10-19-2007, 10:50 AM

It wouldn't make much sense for the CO to raise with just A2, since no other A2 will fold but he will knock out other potential callers. Of course, I wouldn't rule it out entirely. In any case, I don't know about you, but when I have just A2 for low and no high, an ace hits the board on the turn (making a flush possible), and it goes bet/raise in front of me, I probably wouldn't call. I have been counterfeited, and there could be more betting behind me. I share a few choice words with the screen as I hit the fold button.

Given that the BB called 2 bets on the flop and then bet the turn, I would say the odds that he has the nut flush are higher than usual, but you still have a good chance, and you could end up earning half the pot with a raise on the turn.

Jim Morgan · #9 10-19-2007, 12:21 PM

Buzz,

You say that you are against 2 opponents when you do your analysis, but I think that is not really right. There were 5 opponents who saw the flop. If, and I am assuming your math is correct, each has a roughly 4% chance of being dealt KcXc, then it is more like 20% likely that someone had KcXc.

This ignores the more or less imposible task of knowing if some opponents would (correctly IMHO) fold KcXc with little else here and so forth. At these limits, I'd guess none of them would fold it.

I do, however, agree that raising here is a good thing.. Now a live deuce behind me should fold So should 2 pair and sets. I expect the man betting out just made a low, but maybe has a K high flush I may lose a paying custumer, but I think I will promote my low or protect my high enough to make this right. Getting nitty about sucking 1 player in here is overly greedy.

Hopefully I won't face a cold-call then a re-raise. Since the cold call could easily be a mistake (caling with a weaker flush, 2 pair, or a set), I'd be forced to call down, but I no like it anymore.

Buzz · #10 10-19-2007, 04:44 PM

[ QUOTE ]
You say that you are against 2 opponents when you do your analysis, but I think that is not really right. There were 5 opponents who saw the flop. If, and I am assuming your math is correct, each has a roughly 4% chance of being dealt KcXc, then it is more like 20% likely that someone had KcXc.

[/ QUOTE ]Hi Jim - Good point.

My thinking is someone does not necessarily see the flop with a hand containing a suited king. That's the main thing. But then also, someone does not necessarily continue after a flop like this one with a suited king. (This flop has three low cards so that there's almost surely going to be a split with low).

It depends very much on the individual opponents, but I think there's a reasonable chance that if someone was dealt a hand with a suited king, that hand may very well have made it to the muck before the flop, and if not then, possibly after the flop.

A suited ace would be a different matter.

Still, you have a very good point, one I wrestled with myself.

As simulated against five non-folding opponents with random cards (100,000 deals), Hero has a total pot equity of about 40.7%, mainly because of the split with low. You're right about "closer to 20%." Hero wins with the 2nd nut flush 80186 times and loses to the nut flush 19814 times.

(One or both opponents have the nut low 40083 times. Thus by raising, if someone will fold a non nut low to a raise on the river, Hero has a fair chance of improving to a scooper, or even stealing the low if the one opponent does have the nut flush.)

I calculated/approximated for the 92%, but as long as I have the hand/board set up, I might as well run the same sim with two non-folding opponents. As simulated against two non-folding opponents with random cards (100,000 deals), Hero has a total pot equity of about 55.9%, again mainly because of the split with low. And Hero wins with the 2nd nut flush 91954 times and loses to the nut flush 8046 times.

In general, people have more expertise in terms of playing for low than for high, and with five opponents seeing the flop, I'd expect the two who continued had the best low draws of the five. Thus the simulation for low is better against five non-folding opponents than two. But i don't think that's true of the simulation for a king flush with no ace on the flop.

But you do have a very good point. I'll concede it's opponent dependent.

[ QUOTE ]
This ignores the more or less imposible task of knowing if some opponents would (correctly IMHO) fold KcXc with little else here and so forth. At these limits, I'd guess none of them would fold it.

[/ QUOTE ]I considered not responding because of the low limits. My thinking is always it terms of having reasonably logical opponents who know the game reasonably well or better.

[ QUOTE ]
I do, however, agree that raising here is a good thing. Now a live deuce behind me should fold So should 2 pair and sets.

[/ QUOTE ]I think you give an opponent more of a chance to make a mistake when you raise. I'm not sure an opponent behind you with those hands "should" fold, but he/she does have a more difficult choice when facing a double bet with the possibility of another double bet to follow.

And if the original bettor is one of those fools who think betting and then folding if raised is a good play, maybe Hero scoops.

[ QUOTE ]
I expect the man betting out just made a low, but maybe has a K high flush I may lose a paying custumer, but I think I will promote my low or protect my high enough to make this right. Getting nitty about sucking 1 player in here is overly greedy.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

[ QUOTE ]
Hopefully I won't face a cold-call then a re-raise. Since the cold call could easily be a mistake (caling with a weaker flush, 2 pair, or a set), I'd be forced to call down, but I no like it anymore.

[/ QUOTE ]Agreed.

Buzz