Odds Question I've never seen answered before

[GeeBeeQED]

Greetings, my first post and an introduction is in order. I've been playing about 4 years and am concentrating on small live NL Casino Holdem at this time. Most of my play is at 1-3NL with the occasional 2-5NL game. My hourly rate over the last 3 months (since I started keeping records) including all poker action is July $35, August $16, September $60. These figures include 100% of my play, 29 sessions.

I've done well picking out players who have big stacks "AND" have the flaw of being willing to go broke with hands like top pair. One of my strategic choices is to call these players preflop raises (usually $10-$20 in a 1-3NL) with any suited connector and many 1 gappers. About the biggest hand I'll consider a call with is JT and I don't like this hand in a raised pot much. The larger hands all get folded, I don't want to hit top pair and be dominated (excepting AA,KK,QQ,AK). Lower hands like 9-T,8-9,7-8,5-6 are my favorites, I'll also use the smaller connectors but I get steadily more concerned as with JT. I don't ever play 2-3,2-4,3-4 or 4-6 in this situation. With an extra caller before me, the 1 gappers (8-10,6-8...) and offsuited connectors get attractive. Obviously I miss the flop many times for every hit. I consider this an advanced strategy because of the high level of displine needed to fold top pair routinely when playing one of these trap hands. Essentially I'm looking to hit 2 pair, trips, open ended straight or a 4 flush on the flop in order to continue. Any other non fitting flop and I release the hand to a bet.

Certainly there are times I bet the flops below my standard. But, I keep strongly in mind "why" I played the hand to begin with and that was to hit a monster and break a large stack. Flops that don't fit that plan don't interest me much at all.

Now the odds question. What are the odds of a suited connector (secondarily a suited one gapper) hitting 2 pair or better on the flop or a 4 flush or open ended straight draw? I can find all these odds individually but it seems to me just adding them up isn't correct. I don't know if the question is too complex for this forum, it's certainly too complex for me to figure out with my current knowledge.

My current standards is I'm looking for the original raiser or at least one caller to have about 15-20x the raise in front of them. I also have to have about 15-20x the raise to make the call preflop. 20X or more is much better for certain. So, in a 1-3 game, a bunny stack (bought in for $100) raises $15 preflop, regardless of my position at the table, I chuck all these hands. But, if he's got $300 in front of him, were going to play a pot. I've arrived at these stack to bet ratios from experience and feel. I'd love to see the cold hard evidence/math. Really were talking about implied stack odds and how it relates to the odds of one of these hands hitting strongly. And certainly skillfully picking the right players to make this call against is very important.

None of my collection of 70 well dog-eared books addresses this question.

Thanks,
Dave

[mattak]

It seems like you have hit upon the concepts of implied odds and effective stacks through experience and trial/error. When stacks are very deep, your hand strength matters less and position matters more. You should begin to experiment with concepts like reraising (3 betting) to isolate certain players preflop, and semi bluffing/playing draws aggressively post flop. These skills will help you win smaller pots even when you dont hit flop.

[JohnLHooker]

"too complex for this forum"

harr. u lazy!

[huhwhatyousay?]

This should help.

[GeeBeeQED]

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It seems like you have hit upon the concepts of implied odds and effective stacks through experience and trial/error....

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Obviously later is always better. I'm very liberal with these calls without much regard for position. I will lay these down with a slider after me yet to act or other such crazies. However you are correct.

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You should begin to experiment with concepts like reraising (3 betting) to isolate certain players preflop,

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I'm doing this with big hands but never with SC, 1 gaps etc. when I've called a raiser and missed the flop. I might enter the pot with a raise with such hands but not reraise, it kills the implied odds to do so. The only case where I see this might be good is if the vilian folds easly to C bet after the flop, basic build and steal play. However, that's outside the framework of my original post. I'm talking about calling a raise from a legitimate good hand (praying he has AA or KK or QQ or AK) and getting him tangled up in a monster pot where he's behind. I'm not looking to build a huge pot preflop when I'm on this play. I want to make the hand here and then commit the other player AI 1 street at a time.

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and semi bluffing/playing draws aggressively post flop. These skills will help you win smaller pots even when you dont hit flop.

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I had a problem with this at one time. I'd call the raise and miss then too often I'd try to win the pot anyway. The only way to win is to bet right? That gets expensive. I can be pretty transparent and it does not take players long to learn to repop you and take the pot away. I'll make the play you describe several times in a 5-8 hour session however, I very rarely do this if I've called a pre flop raiser. I think this play is better after a limp or after I've been the first raiser preflop.

I think many of the players I'm beating lose sight of why they are playing a particular hand. The flop comes, they miss but they know they can't win by checking so they bet. This type of thinking is so easily defeated. A perfect table for me has 1 or 2 players like this, 1 or two 50 year plus rocks and balance 20 somethings.

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...When stacks are very deep, your hand strength matters less and position matters more....

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Value of position relative to stack size as the stacks get very deep isn't something I've thought to much about. I'll consider this and apreciate your bringing this concept to my attention.

[GeeBeeQED]

John, thanks for the link. I do not yet have the experiance working this forum to find that on my own. It was very enlightening and covers my question pretty well. It seems a little slanted towards being very aggresive with these hands which in my experiance adds too much volitility. There are better places to do that and I don't want to become a slider. I'd rather play the hand after the flop.