Outs with UI OC on Turn c/b?

[Set_Wenker]

Hey,

Online 0,5-1,00

Button is 22/7/1,4 (157 hands)
SB is 56/0/0.6 (50 hands)

Button is a little tricky. He called the flop with a PP earlier and raised the turn when he suspected I was on UI OC.

Hero is UTG+1 A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

PF: Hero raises, button calls, sb calls.

Flop: 7 sb 2 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, Button calls, SB folds.

Turn: 4,5 bb J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img](2 players)
hero checks...

I check with the intention of calling a bet if button bets. Is this the right play? Or should I just stay agressive in hope he folds.

My reasoning is the J [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] gave me a lot of outs. I have two overcards a gutshot SD and a Q high FD. I don't want to be raised by my opponent because I have to call.

[HarshCharlie]

I bet this turn every time. If you have seen button getting out of line, thats even more reason to bet, not to mention the fact that you improved ur hand. think about the range of hands he could have called u with on this flop, theres straight draws, flush draws, infact dont be surprised if he called u with a couple of overcards, happens all the time in .5 -1 . You have a strong draw and you have a strong chance to get ur opp to fold, bet.

[fretelöo]

How does he generally play the turn? I don't mind a check here, for the reasons you state.

[ QUOTE ]
If you have seen button getting out of line, thats even more reason to bet,

[/ QUOTE ]

Why? 88s beat ace-high, no?

[ QUOTE ]
... not to mention the fact that you improved ur hand.

[/ QUOTE ]

We improved our draw. Villain might already have a flush now.

[22pajo]

i prefer a bet here. its more a semi bluff than a continuation bet as you have lots of outs to improve your hand

[Neku]

**Grunch**

Flush draw: you have about 5 or 6 outs (2-gap to nut flush & using only one pocket); SD: let's assume any 4 gives u the nuts. Your overcards might not be worth much (coordinated board and 3 spades): let's say one each. I would say: 11 outs (22 %). Board is giving you 4,5:1 - a profitable call if he bets.

[HarshCharlie]

well A high is a hand, it could be the best hand. do you think there is such little chance A high is the best hand that a check is better in this spot?

[fretelöo]

Could be. True. You answer: How high do you estimate the chance that ace-high is good at showdown?

[sharpie]

I think villain is never folding a better hand here, but I also think you have the best hand often, and if not some outs to fall back on.

If he has red KQ he has 3 outs, so checking isn't bad here. If he has K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]Q I expect him to bluff the turn. Also if he has A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]x I would expect him to bluff the turn, and if he has Ax no spade he has very few outs.

A benefit I can see to betting the turn is folding out something like red AQ that would take half the pot if you don't catch a spade.

If you check/call the turn you'll probably feel obliged to check/call the river, so you're not really saving anything over bet/calling the turn and folding the river UI.

Overall I prefer betting the turn.

[HarshCharlie]

well, with improvement, i would say the chance of us being good on the end is around 3.5 - 1.

there is a chance we're crushed by a flush with the K [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

My estimation would go a little something like this;
7 outs to a flush
1.5 outs to win with an ace
2 outs to win with a straight (minus the [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] and minus one cause we could be beat already)

total: 10.5 outs therefore winning chances for the river = 3.5 - 1.

theres also a chance a blank could fall and the action goes check check potentially alowing us to win ace high.

[nichtsnutz]

I think A-high is almost never the best hand here. 22/7/1.6 sounds like a player who knows what he's doing. He's probably not cold-calling PF with AJo or KQ or whatever. The cold-call is most likely a medium pocket-pair. I bet it as a semibluff.