10/20: A situation that hits my weak spot

Haupt_234 · #1 09-13-2006, 04:44 PM

Assume that MP2 [villain]'s stats are 16/13/2 over a large enough sample with no other reads on him. SB is a donkey but not a total maniac. Plays too many hands and peels too liberally.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
3 folds, MP2 raises, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, MP2 raises, SB folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players) Hero ???

a) Are most people donking the flop instead of c/ring to possibly face the BB with 2 cold?

b) And what should be my turn plan? Donk/fold or check/call down?

Thanks in advance, this type of situation is an area I have been sketchy on lately.

Haupt_234

Edited: SB is the donkey, not me...

danzasmack · #2 09-13-2006, 04:59 PM

Aren't you BB? Did you want to change your read?

Haupt_234 · #3 09-13-2006, 05:06 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Aren't you BB? Did you want to change your read?

[/ QUOTE ]

Edited, thanks.

Haupt_234

danzasmack · #4 09-13-2006, 05:10 PM

I like to donkebet here sometimes. I'm not planning on folding and assuming he knows you are a TAG too I would often anticipate you might be trying to b/3-bet the turn. Plus I don't think c/f is really an option here so 1 bet still goes in and we don't get burned on the "free card" play.

jba · #5 09-13-2006, 06:19 PM

"a) Are most people donking the flop instead of c/ring to possibly face the BB with 2 cold?"

it seems to me that if you can't call down here, you shouldnt be betting the flop, right? I mean we're hoping for the best case scenario of facing BB with two cold, but that means we're beat too often to call down a blank turn?

IMO a stop and go on the turn after your line turns your cards face up, not sure I like that. I mean you could have A6/K6/76/65 or maybe a bunch of suited sixes, but a lot of it is pocket pairs. surely enough to make a bluff raise profitable for him. I probably risk the free card here.

James. · #6 09-13-2006, 09:33 PM

i think i would check to the raiser and either call if sb calls or c/r if sb folds. if i only call the flop, i donk the turn. that said, sometimes i still c/r for value even IF sb calls if he is fishy and as loose a peeler as you stated. i don't like betting into the pfr in quite a few situations now, as opposed to when i bought into the old "avoid checking to the raiser" mantra that was at one time the primary school of thought for me. the game, IMO has changed enough that some adjustments need to be made; primarily since it has gotten more aggressive, we need to channel that aggression by putting our opponents into positions where they can make the biggest mistakes possible. hope school's going okay.

bernie · #7 09-14-2006, 01:59 AM

Depends on how hard he'll play overcards both on the flop and on the turn.

If he's aggressive, I might check call down. At most, if he's drawing, he'll break even(though not effectively through 2 streets). There's 5 bets in going to the turn. If you're ahead, he has 6 outs. He isn't likely folding a better hand if you bet out.

If he's likely raising for a freebie on the flop, donk the turn and you can probably fold to a raise. Btw...this also works well in tandem with donking both the flop and turn when you do actually have trips or a str8 draw(made on turn). Maybe even a FH.

If he just calls your turn donk, check call the river.

An AF of 2 means he may slow down on the turn with just overcards. So I'd lean towards donking the turn and folding to a raise.

b

Sqred · #8 09-14-2006, 01:31 PM

My thought pattern in this scenario is follows, please tell me where you disagree and why:

Pre-flop in a three handed pot I would lead toward three beting a MP raiser. I am 99% certain I have the SB beat, want control of the hand, and want to prevent sticky situations a solid aggressive player could present me with when he holds big overcards.

On the flop a lead when checked to by the SB seems obvious. With this vulnerable of a hand I think a position raise from the MP is actually welcomed, in that it helps define/protect your hand versus the SB. If he calls two cold after checking this flop, you can effectively shutdown with confidence. Assuming the SB folds I would just call the flop raise.

The turn is where this gets interesting. I think a check raise is the standard default line. I dont see ever mucking this hand as a viable option so I want to charge the MP as much as possible when he is drawing to live overs. Very few if any 10/20 players are going to three bet you on this board with only an overpair, so your risk is limited. Also a tight player may muck a wide variety of live overs at this point. With 10.5 big bets now in the pot this a huge mistake on his part.

If called I think the choice between betting the river, hoping to check it down, and checking to induce a bluff are all about equal. Remember, even if he hits an over on the river or had you beat all along, your show of strength preflop and on the turn should keep him off your back and block a value bet or raise from a good two pair hand.

This analysis gets really complicated against really strong players who would have smooth called your three bet with AA, KK, or QQ preflop. The presence of the SB would lead most mid limit players to four bet for value with these hands. This is just one of those sticky situations you have to deal with as you move higher and higher. Sometimes you just have to gamble and try to control the pot the best you can.

FJMcC