$22 PP Regular - nut flush draw with good odds

[alex-star]

What do you think? Fairly early in the game. I'd push the flop if it was checked to me, but this bet from MP3 was pretty much a sure sign that he got a piece of the flop.


PartyPoker $22 Regular Tournament, Big Blind is t100 (10 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

UTG (t2505)
UTG+1 (t1445)
MP1 (t1850)
MP2 (t3532)
MP3 (t3077)
Hero (t2500)
CO (t2255)
Button (t214)
SB (t24)
BB (t2598)

Preflop: Hero is in CO+1 with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
<font color="gray">UTG folds</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, MP3 calls t100, <font color="red">Hero raises to t360</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, BB calls t260, MP3 calls t260

Flop: (t1130) 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4 players)
BB checks, <font color="red">MP3 bets t175</font>, Hero calls t175, <font color="red">BB raises to t550</font>, MP3 calls t375, Hero calls t375

Turn: (t2780) 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)
<font color="red">BB bets t1688 (All-in)</font>, MP3 calls t1688, <font color="red">Hero bets t1590 (All-in)</font>

River: (t7746) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (4 players)

[Davey]

Flop call is ok but you should fold this turn. Looks like you are against a set here and you dont want to call off your chips with 7? outs this early. If the other guy has spades as well you are in terrible shape. Not even close to the right odds.

[JSH06]

Flop call is fine. Turn is an easy fold. What are these "good odds" you're referring too? Those pot odds are from it.

[Lego05]

He's actually getting about 3.8 to 1 on the call if we say that all his flush outs are outs and nothing else so I mean this is a little close (4 to 1 would be break dead even). Still.....

Fold the turn.

[alex-star]

And let's not forget that an ace might be 1.5 outs.

[Jay Riall]

You played it well apart from the call on the turn. You will be up against a set here a lot of the time, I don't think you can count your aces as outs, or some of your spades. Your getting good odds, but I'm not putting my tournament on this hand. Fold and move on.

[Lego05]

You should still clearly fold the turn.

[Dan.]

[ QUOTE ]
And let's not forget that an ace might be 1.5 outs.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you putting him on, KQ? I'd be very surprised if an A were an out.

[hummusx]

[quote
Are you putting him on, KQ? I'd be very surprised if an A were an out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Especially seeing as how the A of diamonds could back someone into a flush.

Does anyone else think that getting it all-in on the flop is the right move? I really don't like the call/call on the flop. I think I'd feel better getting it in or getting out. If someone has a set, they are going to call on the flop anyway, but at least we gain a chance to knock out at least one player. Plus with two to come we're getting better odds.

[AJGibson]

Main pot = 5960
your call = 1590 ~27% of the pot

Outs to flush 9 ~ 19% chance of hitting it. Hence not a profitable call especially when you consider that 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]&amp;7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] may give someone a boat, making this call even less profitable. This is certainly not good odds, if you though A's where outs, you were dreaming.

MP3's bet on the flop is weak, I think you should have raised him then, pot size bet is half your stack so a push is valid here plus I think it has plenty of FE. The pot is worth taking down, so the push is good IMO.