3,30$ Pokerstars NL Hold Em tournament 10 Js on great flop.

[latvian7]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t20 (9 handed) internettexasholdem.com

UTG+1 (t910)
Hero (t1690)
MP2 (t1470)
MP3 (t1040)
CO (t2430)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1460)
BB (t1530)
UTG (t1500)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, UTG+1 calls t20, Hero calls t20, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, MP3 calls t20, CO calls t20, Button calls t20, SB completes, BB checks.

Flop: (t140) Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(7 players)</font>
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets t40</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP3 raises to t100</font>, CO folds, Button calls t100, SB folds, BB folds, UTG+1 calls t100, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t1670</font>, MP3 calls t920 (All-In), Button folds, UTG+1 calls t790 (All-In).

correct push? because on such a perfect board i think about my hand as the nuts..

[ssnyc]

I like it but it is high variance...if you don't mind a little gamble them get em in! nh

[registrar]

WTF is the wee flop lead? Pot the flop. Get it in.

[JammyDodga]

Your ahead here aboud 60-40 to any single hand, against two callers I think you probably fare nearly as well, add in a bit of FE to the push and this is a perfectly good play.

[s33w33d]

Bet the flop stronger. Of course, you're terrified to be up against something like A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], but you still have outs. C'est la vie.

[latvian7]

okay, thought my play was correct. The results:
b]Turn:[/b] (t3820) 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>

River: (t3820) K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players, 2 all-in)</font>


Seat 1: MP3 showed [3c 5c] and lost with a flush, King high
Seat 2: latvian7 showed [Jc Tc] and won (3170) with a straight flush, Nine to King

Seat 4: UTG+1 showed [9d Qs] and lost with two pair, Queens and Nines


Thanks for answers [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[hamnegger]

absolutely a good push. this is about as good as j 10s gets. 2 outs to the stone nuts. 15 outs to the best hand and a nice overlay. results don't matter play is good.

[cheburashka]

I'm wide open to criticism from one of our regular posters on this, but...

For purposes of thinking about this quickly in the heat of the tournament ("... you have 15 seconds to act"), would it be correct to reason as follows:

You have 15 outs to hit a straight or flush, which is ~53% likely on turn+river (formula from HOH: outs X 4 minus outs over 8). Even with a small likelihood that someone will have a higher flush or will hit a full house, you should win this hand above 50% of the time regardless of how many callers you get. Therefore, the most positive EV bet would be the one that gets the most value in the pot (bet size X # of callers). I like Registrar's suggestion of pot-sized, but in my experience in micro (I'm definitely not good enough for the big boys), you would probably get at least two callers with a 2X pot bet here.

???

[Beerocrat]

Everything except that weak lead on the flop looks fine. Either C/R the monster draw or lead an actual bet.

[blockafor]

[ QUOTE ]
Everything except that weak lead on the flop looks fine. Either C/R the monster draw or lead an actual bet.

[/ QUOTE ]

A weak lead is more likely to get more players involved that shouldn't be and more likely to get someone to come over the top, where you can 3-bet shove and have dead money in the pot, as was the case in this hand.

A strong lead is more likely to get you heads up with one opponent and out of position, making it harder to extract value when the scare card that improves your hand hits.

But the strong lead disguises your hand more too...I think it's close.