55$ - Fold Two Pair on the Bubble?

[RRiccio]

PartyPoker 55$ Speed Tournament, Big Blind is t600 (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t3104)
Button (t10425)
SB (t245)
Hero (t6226)

Preflop: Hero is in BB with 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
CO calls t600, Button calls t600, Hero checks

Flop: (t1200) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, CO checks, Button checks

Turn: (t1200) 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (4 players)
<font color="red">Hero bets t600</font>, CO calls t600, <font color="red">Button raises to t9825</font>, <font color="gray">Hero ?</font>

Only read is that the Button is a regular at the 55's and seems to play ok.

[bennies]

SB is allin but I'd still fold. Higher two pair, straights and sets all beat hero.

[Longy]

If he is a regular and therefore can play a bit i presume. I think he has you, i cannot see him pushing a bare ace here, its a very situational hand where villan should not being do this w/o the goods. Fold

[acIdREIGN462]

[ QUOTE ]
If he is a regular and therefore can play a bit i presume. I think he has you, i cannot see him pushing a bare ace here, its a very situational hand where villan should not being do this w/o the goods . Fold

[/ QUOTE ]

I disagree with this part of your analysis. This is actually a reasonable time for him to be bluffing, especially if you will be folding 2 pair type hands. As the big stack he has no need to end the bubble, and this is not a dry side pot bluff.

I would agree that most players at the 55s, including regulars, do not bluff here and as played it looks like he has you beat and a fold is good here.

[anthony1968]

It's certainly a possibility that the big stack is semi-bluffing here, as he can get some strong hands to fold because of the bubble situation. But with that said, I am still folding, because with a call from the cutoff and a push from the big stack, you can almost be assured that at least one of them has the short stack beat, and you'll still have plenty of chips to play three-handed.

[RRiccio]

I folded and villain had J5o.

[Ditch Digger]

I wouldn't bet this turn unless I was planning to call a raise.

[bennies]

[ QUOTE ]
I folded and villain had J5o.

[/ QUOTE ]

wow, well played by him I think.

[Pudge714]

[ QUOTE ]
I wouldn't bet this turn unless I was planning to call a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]