Likelihood of undefeated Pats

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

remaining away game team record

4-4
4-3
6-2

home game

3-5
5-2
1-8
0-8

What do they have, about a 10-15% chance of going undefeated?

[LuckyLloyd]

Talk about the Giants game is a little silly. Pittsburgh and Baltimore have genuine banana skin potential. And as each week passes - the pressure increases.

[FUJItheFISH]

tom brady looked psychotic when he was giving love headbutts to his o-line. i am genuinely afraid of him and bill belichick.

[john voight]

any of you idiots who voted over 50%, I will take 1:1 for any amount up to 5k.

[bustowithnobra]

[ QUOTE ]
any of you idiots who voted over 50%, I will take 1:1 for any amount up to 5k.

[/ QUOTE ]

I may be torpidly tired right now, but if you're calling people idiots for voting 50% or over on the pats to go undefeated, you should put your money where your mouth is and at least offer 2:1. Lest you forget, the Steelers went 15-1 a few years back, and the Pats went 14-2, with one of their losses missing Corey Dillon, and the other loss-if they had been 14-0 at that point- to Miami would have a far less probability of occuring.

[xxThe_Lebowskixx]

50% chance would mean the Pats are 90% likely to win each game.

.9^7 = 50%

[ZeTurd]

[ QUOTE ]
50% chance would mean the Pats are 90% likely to win each game.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this point I don't even think it's that unlikely. They're just that good. The Bills? The Jets? Dolphins? Is it probable that this Pats team loses 1 out of 10 matches against any of these teams? There just isn't that much variance when the skill difference is as big as it is now. Sans the Colts, the Pats have obliterated all other opposition. Obliterated. I think they could be close to 99% against the Dolphins with HFA, and I only give them the remaining 1 out of 100 win in case of freak injuries to Brady, Moss, Samuels and Harrison or some similar combo.

And that's what it comes down to at this point. For the Pats to drop significantly below 90% against ANY team, they need to 1) get seriously hurt, or 2) BB decides to rest players (not going to happen).

OK, that should take care of the jinxing.. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[MCS]

[ QUOTE ]
I may be torpidly tired right now, but if you're calling people idiots for voting 50% or over on the pats to go undefeated, you should put your money where your mouth is and at least offer 2:1.

[/ QUOTE ]

I do not think he should be calling people idiots, but this makes no sense to me.

[Pudge714]

ZeTurd,
Injuries ftw.

[capone0]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
50% chance would mean the Pats are 90% likely to win each game.

[/ QUOTE ]
At this point I don't even think it's that unlikely. They're just that good. The Bills? The Jets? Dolphins? Is it probable that this Pats team loses 1 out of 10 matches against any of these teams? There just isn't that much variance when the skill difference is as big as it is now. Sans the Colts, the Pats have obliterated all other opposition. Obliterated. I think they could be close to 99% against the Dolphins with HFA, and I only give them the remaining 1 out of 100 win in case of freak injuries to Brady, Moss, Samuels and Harrison or some similar combo.

And that's what it comes down to at this point. For the Pats to drop significantly below 90% against ANY team, they need to 1) get seriously hurt, or 2) BB decides to rest players (not going to happen).

OK, that should take care of the jinxing.. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

They have a couple of gimmes.

Buffalo is playing better and playing well at home but I can see the Pats being a huge favorite here.
Philly is just playing bad now, I can barely see them winning.
@Baltimore, Baltimore is nothing special this year but I'd have trouble giving the Pats a 90% chance of winning on the road here.
Pittsburgh, not sure what team is going to show up. The team that shut out a couple of teams this year or the one that lost to Arizona and Denver on the road. I still can't see the Pats being 90% favorites.
Jets, this should be a gimme.
Miami, this should be a gimme.
@Giants, if the Pats are at 100%, I still don't think this is a 90% win on the road. Then again will this be the Giants of the last couple of seasons who come out fast and end slow. Also if the Pats are 15-0, they will probally be pumped for this game and it could be above 90% chance of winning. If they lose earlier, it's probally lower but then again doesn't matter for this undefeated streak to hold true.

But then the playoffs role around. They won't be 90% to beat the Colts with Marvin if that matchup does occur. Potential 2nd round matchups are Chargers, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Cleveland?, Tennessee, but all will likely be at home against the Pats. I don't think any are particularly scary.

All these #s are of course if Brady and Moss stay healthy. Otherwise, I don't think most of the injuries matter unless their are a ton of them.