200NL Triple-Barreling is Always Fun

[74o_Clownsuit]

I should have fairly aggro image on this table as I'm running around 25/22/4. Villain is 24/16/1.6. We don't have too much crazy history. However, I have seen him flat a raise with 99 otb 4-handed. I have also seen him go into pot control with one pair hands after a decent amount of action. I have not been caught making huge bluffs recently.

Full Tilt Poker, $1/$2 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $231.45
Hero (UTG): $722
MP: $197
CO: $218.40
BTN: $375.75
SB: $498.10

Pre-Flop: A 3 dealt to Hero (UTG)
<font color="red">Hero raises to $7</font>, 2 folds, BTN calls $7, 2 folds

Flop: ($17) 8 2 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, BTN calls $15

Turn: ($47) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $40</font>, BTN calls $40

River: ($127) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero???

[terp]

a bluff is good if people will fold often enough, not if they should. most players are not folding 89 here

it's not really a question of how strong he is here but how smart and how weak/tight. he may be afraid to bloat pots with one pair when he holds the lead, but he still might know when to call three with a pair if that's the only option to showdown.

so...like a lot of these, this is bad as a bluff against a random and possibly/probably good against select opponents. from the reads you provide i can't really say whether he is an ideal target

[cs3]

well if you bet 115 or whatever hoping he'll fold...
then how exactly were you planning to get paid off if you had hit? cant have it both ways with the same bet

[carrotsnake]

Either shove or give up, nothing in between

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
well if you bet 115 or whatever hoping he'll fold...
then how exactly were you planning to get paid off if you had hit? cant have it both ways with the same bet

[/ QUOTE ]
What?

[carrotsnake]

cs3, fwiw, you realize that different cards lead to different outcomes right ? :0

[cs3]

[ QUOTE ]
What?

[/ QUOTE ]
im saying you cant expect villain to both pay off when you hit one of your outs, AND fold when you miss if you take the same line/make the same sized bet

if you want to get him off a hand i think you either need to ch/rai (im not sure how often he even bets river, but he cant ever have a boat here so hes folding like always if you ch/rai)
or like carrot said, overbet the river.

[cs3]

carrotsnake-
no i never realized that different cards lead to different outcomes... unpossible!


anyway im under the impression that villain wants to fire a noraml sized bet on the rive regardless of what the actual card is, but maybe im wrong

[Nick Royale]

[ QUOTE ]
im saying you cant expect villain to both pay off when you hit one of your outs, AND fold when you miss if you take the same line/make the same sized bet

[/ QUOTE ]
This is not correct. Not saying a different betsize couldn't be better though.

[scallop]

[ QUOTE ]
well if you bet 115 or whatever hoping he'll fold...
then how exactly were you planning to get paid off if you had hit? cant have it both ways with the same bet

[/ QUOTE ]

good point... villian clarly will know that your raise/bet/bet line = flush draw and will call you here with most pairs, but when the [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] comes he will know that your raise/bet/bet line also equals diamonds and will fold. Clearly thats the only hand OP can have....

fwiw I think you should shove here because your hand is never a draw.