Two ''Hyachacha'' Hands, OT Poll

[Municipal Hare]

Giving CO and UTG some half-baked ranges, I find J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] converges around 10-11% equity without backdoor spades and 14-15% with. The straight pot odds on the second flop call demand 3.68 clean* outs if UTG will call behind (implying 23:2) and 4.93 if he will cap (25:3).

The ROI and raising-war considerations that rzk listed are enough to persuade me that calling the flop twice in the OP hand would be wrong; sadly the real board was not the one I posted. Sad for two reasons: one because my hypothetical, less correct call didn't inspire much discussion. Two because this happened:

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is BB with T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG (49/26/1 over ~100) calls, <font color="#cc0000">HJ raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">unknown CO 3-bets</font>, Button folds, fish coldcalls 2.5, Hero calls 2, UTG calls 2, HJ calls.

Flop: 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (15SB, 5 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG checks, HJ checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets</font>, fish calls, Hero calls, <font color="#cc0000">UTG raises</font>, HJ folds, <font color="#cc0000">CO 3-bets</font>, fish folds, Hero calls 2 more, UTG calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (12.5BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks!

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (12.5BB, 3 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG bets</font>, CO calls, Hero folds.

Hyachachachachachachachohwell.

* Perhaps better than "clean" would be "breakeven", as in if you do hit an out your implied EV on the big streets will not be negative.

[Municipal Hare]

[ QUOTE ]
Hand 1 - I just fold flop. I like the donk once you hit the T. I'm not sure whether I'm calling this turn raise though, unless you think he will spazz with 77-99 or like A6s. Then, once you get to the river and he bets again, you're basically hoping he has exactly QT, JT, or T9 for the split. I don't think you can make this call either. So I fold every street postflop lol

[/ QUOTE ]
Who agrees? I definitely felt that way during each stage of the hand. Compoundingmistakes.com FTW.