650BB down swing for a winning player?

[Justin A]

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I had two $10,000 downswings

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Is it really that far fetched that they could have happened back to back instead of a small winning period in between?

[Nigel]

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For 50k hands, the best wr is 4.9bb/100.

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Simply amazing. (unless you are consistently playing 4 handed or shorter). You really, really, really need to move up. You are costing yourself, literally, millions.

Nigel

[Our House]

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When is the last time you saw even a 4 sigma event in your life?

Just keeping things in perspective.

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How many sigmas is winning a million at a lottery?
Just keeping things in perspective. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

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True, but I don't get it.

Millions of people enter a lottery every day and many play more than one ticket. How many TRUE 3bb winners in 10/20 6 max do you think are out there?

[TomBrooks]

How about showing us a chart of all your 10/20 sbx? It would be interesting to see the whole thing. Thanks.

[sxb]

I cannot show you the whole thing in one chart. Data are stored in serveral databases. Enought charts from me already [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] Anyway I'll post one more chart here. The data are from my first database for party 10/20 6max games, from 1/10/2004 to 11/30/2004.

[ArturiusX]

Thanks, that charts really cool. Although the 200BB downswings are there, over the long run you can't even see them. Very cool.

[HesseJam]

While mathematically possible that you can have extended and steep downswings as a winning player the odds are that you altered your play during the downswings.

I looked at mine and found that I tend to compound sharp downswings by starting playing a tad looser, a tad more aggressive at the flop and the turn and a tad tighter at the river (in short: TILT!). If I looked back how I felt during the downswings I realized that I often felt more tired than usual.

650 BB is a lot, so it likely will be the compound of bad luck and altering your play.

[cartman]

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650 BB is a lot, so it likely will be the compound of bad luck and altering your play.

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This guy is a champion. To sustain his win rate over that amount of hand is remarkable. He did estimate himself that a small amount of the downswing was probably due to subpar play, but this appears to be an aberration of epic proportion. In my opinion, the standard assumption that he must have been playing badly or at least differently than normal likely doesn't apply to him.

Cartman

[ghostface]

The long run is really long.

[POKhER]

Post in ShortHanded section and give some strategy advice, you've taken from the forum so give back.

Nice charts, Dam you need to move up or you're losing $$$$ (Long term your chrushing it, im sure if you move up you'll be a winner too).