3/6 - Perfect time to fire third barrel?

[siegfriedandroy]

why is this push easier online- do people really fold that much more?

[thedustbustr]

mason,

i rarely bet the turn. BUT, if I do bet the turn, hell yea im pushing the river.

[Triumph36]

Okay, I'll explain the logic here since I played a hand very similar to this one today, which I will post at the end.

First off, the Villain open-limped on the CO, usually a sign of weakness. He probably has a Q9, J8 type of hand that wants to see a flop in position. The raise with 56s is kind of a bluff but it can hit flops big and wants some money in the center. This is a standard raise for me as well.

The flop came high cards - well, isn't that why we raised? To represent high cards and value bet low cards? Villain might have a king and he might have a ten, but he might have garbage and will fold to the bet. Oh, [censored], he called.

On to the next street - an ace. Perfect bluff card, as Villain is unlikely to have an ace himself - he would've raised with AK or AT (we assume), and would've tossed all other aces on the flop. He is probably not that strong here and the hands we can represent certainly are. Hero bets, and gets called again.

The river changes nothing, yet a push is still good because Villain might've been calling hoping to see a free/cheap river. His hand is not likely to be very strong, and there's a real good chance that a river bet will work here (Villain is getting 2 to 1 on a push btw).. here's the example - I actually have a draw here that missed but it's still relevant:

4 handed 2/4 NL, I open with 53 diamonds for 16, Villain calls on BB. Villain is like 43/30 or something ridiculous like that.

Flop: ($32) K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 7 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 25, Villain calls

Turn: ($82) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 69, Villain calls 69

River: ($210) 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Villain checks, Hero bets 165, Villain folds

On the flop he's probably weak, as he will call in this spot with a ten. On the turn I pick up some outs but bet them anyway because I feel that Villain may dump his hand here regardless. He calls, and I put him on something with a J looking to suck out with the straight - J7, JT, something like that; he might have 89 too. River blanks and he hasn't shown any strength in the hand - I've been betting strong the whole way - he's got to lay down his weak-ish hand.

[DJ Sensei]

when he calls big on this Ace turn, I think you're in bad shape. I.E. naked kings or tens are probably no longer in his range, I think 2pairs are more likely at this point. Worst I could reasonably see is AQ/AJ.

Regardless, I don't think you should fire this river against a bad opponent.

[siegfriedandroy]

okay, thanks for the explanation. i read one paragraph so far. here's what sticks out to me so far:

"The raise with 56s is kind of a bluff but it can hit flops big and wants some money in the center. This is a standard raise for me as well."

It's really standard for you guys to raise suited connectors in an unraised pot?? Do you mean only in this circumstance (one late open limper) or in many other situations as well? I understand it's a bluff here, but if this is a STANDARD raise it doesnt seem +ev to me. please explain. thanks

[siegfriedandroy]

wow! nice hand. i appreciate your logic, but it seems you guys might be stretching it to justify OP's play here. i dont think a read of 'seems bad' is enough to risk your whole stack here v. a relatively unknown. doesnt seem justified here to me. but im still a newb!

[Rman]

[ QUOTE ]


It's really standard for you guys to raise suited connectors in an unraised pot?? Do you mean only in this circumstance (one late open limper) or in many other situations as well? I understand it's a bluff here, but if this is a STANDARD raise it doesnt seem +ev to me. please explain. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

You have to look at the big picture too. Being too predictable isn´t a good thing. While it may not be +ev in vacuum the long term benefits are there. Of course, this is more important in the bigger tables, where the skill level is higher.

[Hattifnatt]

Looks good to me, looks like he has a pair and picked up a gutshot on the turn and called your 3/4 bet figuring he had some implied odds if he hit.

[mason55]

[ QUOTE ]
"The raise with 56s is kind of a bluff but it can hit flops big and wants some money in the center. This is a standard raise for me as well."

It's really standard for you guys to raise suited connectors in an unraised pot?? Do you mean only in this circumstance (one late open limper) or in many other situations as well? I understand it's a bluff here, but if this is a STANDARD raise it doesnt seem +ev to me. please explain. thanks

[/ QUOTE ]

sigfried-

you'll find that no limit many times is not about what you have but what the other person has and how you can manipulate them. in this case, i'm playing with position on a bad, predictable player. i want to be in as many pots as possible with him. my cards are only secondary.

now, it turns out that this guy was a calling station. once i realized he was a super super calling statoin and not just "bad and predictable" i comepletely changed my game. i kept raising lots of hands in position, trying to isolate him, but i stopped continuation betting flops and firing second barrels. instead i just waited until i hit a hand and took a couple of stacks off of him.

what did he call you with KJ or AJ?