RE: mvdgaag's trange (and probably stupid) pot size control question

[Tjorriemorrie]

In reply to mvdgaag’s strange pot size control question.

You are absolutely correct. I’ve done some calculations on this with a HU situation.

Let’s take an open-ended straight.
8 outs which should give you the nuts – running that to the river gives you a 34.4% chance to hit your straight.
Chance of losing is then of course 65.6%

Lets just take a look at the potsizes first:
On flop:
Pot = 4BB
You bet = 4BB
Villian calls = 4BB
Total pot = 21BB

On turn:
Pot = 12BB
You bet = 12BB
Villian calls = 12BB
Total pot = 36BB

On river:
Pot = 36BB
You bet = 82BB
Villian calls = 82BB
Total pot = 200BB

Clearly you notice the issues here:
1-you MUST go AI on the river.
2-both you and the villain MUST have at least 100BB stacks. (ok, maybe not 100, but REALLY at least 72BB)
These are absolute requirements and cannot be changed.

OK, now for the assumptions:
On the river*:
- Villain call and you win 20% (for winnings of 200)
- villain folds 65% (for winnings of 118)
- you lose 15% (for winnings of -200)
This calculated gives you a 86.7BB average.
Of course if you missed the straight you lose 36BB.

So 34.4% x 86.7 + 65.6% x 36 = 6.22BB +EV


Part 2:On the river:

If you change the winnings this have the biggest effect:
Anything under 69 gives you -EV
40W/50F/10L = 119BB
40W/40F/20L = 87.2BB
30W/45F/25L = 63.1BB
20W/60F/20L = 70.8BB
20W/65F/15L = 86.7BB (assumed)
10W/80F/10L = 94.4BB
5W/85F/10L = 90.3BB
So clearly once you lose more than won its –EV (duh) Let me rephrase: you have to win and get a fold more than 80% of the time than losing. (if lady luck gives you the bad 20% the first 2 times, will you have the balls to carry on with this theory? Hehe) Also notice that you can try this against loose/tight, coz e.g. tight might call less, but then the chance for a fold on the AI increases.

Part 3: Fold equity

There’s already fold equity on the river. Lets see what happens when 30% of the time the villain folds on the turn.

That gives you a 70% chance to win 86.7BB (from above) and a 30% chance to take the 24BB pot right there. So you’re adjusted total winnings is 67.89.
But, realise that you also have only a 70% chance to miss the straight and lose the 36BB pot on the river.

So 34.4% x 67.89 + 65.6% x 25.2BB = 6.83 EV

That’s only 0.61 more. Every bit counts I guess. Also note that you can maybe also increase it marginally if the villain checks on the river when you miss the straight.

Lets now assume that 50% fold on the flop, but then call 90% of the time on the turn and the same river chances apply.

Turn total winnings equal now 80.43. So you have a 50% chance to win 80.43BB and a 50% chance to win 8BB. Gives you a total winnings of 36.22BB and the chance of missing decreases to 16.2BB

So 34.4% x 26.22 + 65.6% x 16.2 = 1.84 EV

Wtf you may asked. Well it’s obvious. You’re 20% chance of winning is much less now (you will win now only 20% of 90% of the time of 50% of the time).

So you don’t want them to fold on the flop, but on the turn, haha.


Part 4: Getting raised
Part 5: Multiway pots.
Will do these if I don’t get flamed.

Getting raised have a big part with the following:

Part 6: When to do this...

VERY, very important is you must notice that I used 4BB as the starting amount in the pot on the flop. That means 4 limpers, or 1 min-raise and a call from you. Anything more than that is –EV (hugely).

If the starting pot is 6BB, then the 1.84 EV drops to 0.09EV. Having it at 10 gives you -3.4BB. That means 3 people went to the flop with a 3xBB raise (+Bigblind).

But you ask: wtf, that doesn’t make sense. Yes it doesn’t. So please remember that “Having more people in the pot means you must do the normal pot odds calculation and call if it allows and not start betting when on a draw”.

So please also think for one minute: if the pot is 4BB but there is 3 people, don’t bet please. If both call your turn bet will be too big and will make this –EV. This works basically only HU.

Just aim to get the pot to <=12BB at the end of the flop and <=36BB at the end of the turn. (also then be sure you still have a 80% winning chance with one more person in the hand).

So no matter how fancy you are don’t let the final pot that goes through to the turn be more than 12BB.

So this (the pot) is very little and is the biggest limiting factor on this theory. Although if it is already 12BB you can check in position and raise his half-potsize bet on the turn, hehe


Conclusion:
So if
- you have a straight draw for NUTS (8+ outs);
- are HU (recommended);
- you can get the final flop pot at most 12BB without getting raised;
- are 80% certain to take the hand when you make your straight
- both have >75BB stacks

Then make a PSB. Maybe lady luck will make you hit it on the turn [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]