Big razz pot

[RustyBrooks]

Villain has a 5 46% of the time. I actually did this the "hard" way and enumerated all the possible hands he could have (the probability works also, but math is always open to misunderstanding, so let's take the direct approach)

These are the possible hands he could have, based on available cards
The ones with no 5 (there are 35 of these)
A2 - 2
A3 - 6
A4 - 8
23 - 3
24 - 4
34 - 12

The ones with a 5 (there are 30 of these):
A5 - 6
25 - 3
35 - 9
45 - 12

[RustyBrooks]

The math is a little complicated by the fact that we are interested in the chances that each card is not a 5, and is not the same as the other card.

The chance that each card is not a 5 is 10/13 or 77%. If we allow pairings then the chances that neither card is a 5 is .77*.77 = 59%, meaning that there is a 41% chance that at least one card is a 5. The difference between this, and the above, assuming I haven't made an arithmatic error (possible...) is, I suspect, the hands that have pairs. There aren't many:

AA - 1
22 - not possible
33 - 3
44 - 6
55 - 3

[SGspecial]

I apologize for my short answers, and for any personal insult you may have felt. I have a lot of respect for you, and have never questioned your motives for posting here -- that you want to give quality advice to the readers of this forum. As for my motives, I already have as many students as I can handle and I welcome any "competition" that can elevate the state of the game of razz. I still post in this forum for the same reason I always have -- because I feel a responsibility to readers here that are looking to get better at razz.

As for the analysis of this particular hand, I only had a few minutes to go over it but I was surprised and disappointed that you posted such a detailed analysis that was so far off the mark. Playing good poker is really making good assumptions about the opponents and situation, and choosing the most +EV line to take given those assumptions. I don't think that any of your assumptions (that seat 5 didn't pair, that seat 1 will raise behind you and the betting will get capped again, that implied odds can be ignored, and that hero needs to fold 5th unless you achieve a 10:1 outflopping) are correct. I also think the line you're taking here when you've already jammed the pot on 3rd and it's been capped 3 ways is seriously -EV with more reasonable and informed assumptions. Please see Rusty's and betgo's posts for the detailed math.

[iStackBooks]

[/ QUOTE ]He is completing with A,7,A,A behind him. Even bigface is likely to have a hand here.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, God only knows what "a hand" is to bigface... either way, he is without a doubt raising with any two low cards here. I think betgo plays the hand perfectly on every street, just happened to catch the good end of big's range and ran into another player with a hand...

[iStackBooks]

Also, I've played quite a bit with nadremark and would agree that he isn't always trying to isolate this on 4th... not great with math, but from the collective analysis here it seems like this is a judgment call on 4th and I think betgo's substantial skill advantage over these two has to be a big factor

[betgo]

Incidently, TT posted the question in the probability forum as to the chance seat 5 paired the 5 if he had 2 unpaired wheel cards in the hole and the answer was 50%, which is exactly my initial estimate. It should be twice the 25% TT came up with that each card is a 5.

Actually, bigfacecat raises here without 3 wheel cards. With bigfacecat's range, it is more like the 35-40% I gave later that he paired.

[Lottery Larry]

I'll ask the same question here that I did in TT's Probability thread:

What 3-card wheel hands (Aceless, of course) should we be folding in bigfacecat's #5 seat, given 3 missing Aces and 2 reraising Aces?

Assuming the reraisers aren't nuts, that is.

I played around with some hand combos on twodimes, and I haven't found a combo that gives Seat #5 more than around 30% equity at best. Even a three-way combo such as

2d 5d 4d
Ad 7h 6s
Ah 8s 4h

gives 254 only a 31% equity. Even that seems like a pretty thin margin, given that Seat #5 has to catch better than both other seats, I think, on 4th?

I may be playing this too tightly, given some immediate implied odds on 4th if no one catches a crippling brick.

[Lottery Larry]

[ QUOTE ]
put your ego back in your pocket - its no secret your post was designed to help sell your coaching sessions - thats ridiculous

[/ QUOTE ]

Given what I know about SGspecial, YOUR statement was the ridiculous component here.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
I'll ask the same question here that I did in TT's Probability thread:

What 3-card wheel hands (Aceless, of course) should we be folding in bigfacecat's #5 seat, given 3 missing Aces and 2 reraising Aces?

Assuming the reraisers aren't nuts, that is.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he has a 3-card wheel without an ace, it is pretty dead. I don't know if anyone folds it to a jam, but it would probably be a good fold. Bigfacecat's LAG image and nadremark's donky image make it hard to fold.

Nadremark actually 3-bet with A28, which isn't that terrible given his cards are probably liver than Bigfacecat, and Bigfacecat's loose image means both players already in the hand may not have monsters.

In actuality, it is pretty certain Bigfacecat paired, so he had 625 or 325.

[Lottery Larry]

I'm not sure I understand nadremak's lead out on 7th here. How often is he getting called by a worse hand, or getting a better one to fold?

He got called on 6th, so betting in front of Seat 5 with a 98-smooth seems foolish. Could he really see this as a value bet? He can't seriously think that any 9 is folding here, with the pot size.

Am I missing something?