crossposted: Bruins chance to win Stanley Cup?

[34TheTruth34]

I posted this in sports betting also. I figured the discussion might be better here, but I wanted them to know about the (IMO) pretty big overlay on the Bruins at 85:1.

So, to all the hockey guys here, what are, in your opinion, the Boston Bruins true odds to win the Stanley Cup right now?

[shemp]

I don't know anything about hockey, and very little about sports betting. Looking at the standings, I'll guess 68:1.

edit: This seems a little low, let's make it a range. Somewhere between 75 and 66 to 1.

[Joe Tall]

Dude save your money.

[Triumph36]

TheTruth -

While those may be good odds, in reality the Boston Bruins have no chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They would have to run several orders of magnitude above their expectation from now until the end of the season in order to do that.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
TheTruth -

While those may be good odds, in reality the Boston Bruins have no chance of winning the Stanley Cup. They would have to run several orders of magnitude above their expectation from now until the end of the season in order to do that.

[/ QUOTE ]

I dunno, I see a team that has played real well since mid-November. This is not, in any way, the same team that started the season like 3-8-1 or whatever.

They are playing much better defensive hockey. Their penalty killing, which was the worst in all of hockey at the start of the season, is working it's way back to respectability. The Boyes-Bergeron-Sturm line is getting into a groove. And, Tim Thomas, though unspectacular, is solid and gives them a chance to win every night (I realize how cliche that sounds, but it really is true).

So, in short, I don't think they have to run nearly as hot as you guys seem to think they do in order to do some damage in the postseason. I like the way this team looks and is playing right now.

[kyro]

Chances that the line is based on the number of points the Bruins have and not on the actual record? Last time I checked, Bruins were in last place in the division but only because they had played 3-4 games less than anyone else.

[Triumph36]

Truth:

Almost no team has been a 'fluke' winner of the Stanley Cup. You are basically talking about a .500 team playing .750 hockey the rest of the season. While this team is not as bad as it started out, it's not that good either - they have holes in the backline and Tim Thomas is a shaky goalie.

[34TheTruth34]

[ QUOTE ]
Almost no team has been a 'fluke' winner of the Stanley Cup.

[/ QUOTE ]

I don't know about fluke, but it does seem like an eight-seed beats a one-seed pretty much every year lately.


[ QUOTE ]

You are basically talking about a .500 team playing .750 hockey the rest of the season.

[/ QUOTE ]

This team over the last month or so has looked like much better than a .500 team IMO. Have you watched the games? Would you agree or am I just being a homer?


[ QUOTE ]
While this team is not as bad as it started out, it's not that good either - they have holes in the backline and Tim Thomas is a shaky goalie.

[/ QUOTE ]

It's not that good on paper, but they have been playing much better. The D is flat-out awful at times, but again, I've seen a lot of improvement from the start of the season.

I don't want to argue semantics here, but I wouldn't call Thomas shaky, he's just not great (I personally have taken to calling him unspectacular). He really does play well enough for them to win almost every night.


And just to be perfectly clear on the issue, I'm certainly not saying that I think the Bruins will win the Cup, just that they should be much less than 85:1.

[NT!]

the bruins have been encouraging but i think they're still a year or two away. one reason for optimism, however, would be how well they've played against division / conference rivals recently.

too many battle-tested teams coming back with a solid nucleus out of the east this year - buffalo, carolina, new york, devils, etc.

[Zurvan]

This would be a good bet if the Bruins had a better goalie. In order for them to win the Cup, they need a goalie to carry them to the Finals.

They don't have one good enough, and they won't be able to pick one up at the Trade deadline. Save your money.