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#22
08-11-2007, 04:20 AM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
[ QUOTE ]
Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now. [/ QUOTE ] Sorry, you are right of course. It's late. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] 
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#23
08-11-2007, 05:18 AM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
[ QUOTE ]
Right, only one point per hand, but it has been $5 at 20 points for a while now. [/ QUOTE ] Are these reload bonuses worth playing nowadays, i haven't been playing there for long time. Are tables still full of nits?
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#26
11-06-2007, 07:23 PM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
[ QUOTE ]
Ive played over 4 millon hands of poker and never had a qualifying bad beat. Only seen two at my tables. I think 1.9millon-1 is a very good estimate on odds. [/ QUOTE ] Don't you think it's more likely that they initiate a BBJ hand every so often? Look at the evidence: There is an immediate fanfare of chips falling etc. when someone wins. See the video of Milkmoney winning:http://www.absolutepoker.com/badbeatpoker/ From a programming perspective it would make more sense for there to be a short delay while the BBJ was verified by a human before the onscreen celebration. On the other hand, if you were initiating it, you could produce a big hullabaloo to play out just as the last card hits. Also, if the odds are 1 in 500,000 hands, then I should expect to be at a BBJ table about once a year. I played 2000 hands yesterday. My odds would be 1 in 250 of hitting yesterday alone. This doesn't jive with mathematical intuition or my card sense. But it DOES seem to correspond to the frequency of winners. See the above web page listing EIGHT separate winners in October. Also, they advertised the BBJ heavily in October, including Bluff and Cardplayer. I agree with your estimate of 1 in 1.9M, and that would mean AP dealt more than 15 million hands in October, the month the scandal hit. Based on this post: [ QUOTE ] 1. Empirical: In a news article, AP officials reported that nearly 1 million hands were played from from July 3 to July11=8 days which would suggest about 125,000 hands per day. [/ QUOTE ] We should expect about 4 million hands a month. (And was this news article quoting BBJ hands, or all hands?) And based on this post: [ QUOTE ] Assuming 60 hands a hour (which also seems a little low based upon the lobby but I'd rather estimate low than high) that means 7440 hands an hour. Take 24 hours in a day and we get approximately 179k hands. [/ QUOTE ] It would be about 5 million hands in a month. Both of those estimates are pre-scandal. So if at their peak, it was 4 to 5 million hands per month, how many would you expect during a boycott by many players? So unless Absolute Poker TRIPLED their traffic during the cheating scandal, my money is on a <u>not-so-random</u> bad beat jackpot. I suppose that would be fine. My only question would then be... Are the recipients of the jackpot money picked at random?
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#27
11-06-2007, 08:20 PM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
Wow. Many people feel the BBJ tables are almost unbeatable due to the extra rake, there was a cheating scandal at AP, you think the BBJ jackpot might not be random, and you played 2,000 hands on the BBJ tables there yesterday????
Wow. Really, wow.
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#28
11-06-2007, 08:54 PM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
Actually, I was making a point about the odds. I didn't play 2000 hands on the BBJ tables yesterday. And why do you berate me personally? Is it because I only have 6 posts. People like you are not very welcoming to new users. Your attitude seems pretty common at this site.
Wow yourself. Get a life.
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#29
11-06-2007, 09:03 PM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
[ QUOTE ]
Actually, I was making a point about the odds. I didn't play 2000 hands on the BBJ tables yesterday. And why do you berate me personally? Is it because I only have 6 posts. People like you are not very welcoming to new users. Your attitude seems pretty common at this site. Wow yourself. Get a life. [/ QUOTE ] Um...OK. Pretty easy for me to draw that conclusion from this part of your post: [ QUOTE ] Also, if the odds are 1 in 500,000 hands, then I should expect to be at a BBJ table about once a year. I played 2000 hands yesterday. My odds would be 1 in 250 of hitting yesterday alone. [/ QUOTE ] Glad to hear I was mistaken. I would have thought you wouldn't be playing there given you are concerned about the legitimacy of the BBJ, so if that's the case then that's a good thing. Berating you personally? I never said a word about you, and I'm sorry to hear that my post was taken that way. The only personal comment I see in either of our posts is where I'm told to get a life, but I won't take it personally. Quite happy with the life I have, thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] As to you having 6 posts, I could really care less how many posts you have. I think you'll find the vast majority of my posts are quite helpful, regardless of whether the poster I'm responding to is new or not. Do I occasionally respond to questionable posts with a bit of typical 2+2 sarcasm? Guilty as charged.
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#30
11-06-2007, 11:21 PM
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Re: Absolute badbeat jackpot odds
And 2 jackpots hit yesterday...so now it's happening every 90,000 hands!!!
I don't think they make more money by triggering it at certain times. When the jackpot grows beyond 500k the place gets packed -- I'd guess 5 to 10 times as many tables as when the jackpot is around 100k. At least it was that way before the 'other' scandal.
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