$16: Big stack battle with AK

[Emperor Norton]

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t150 (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t5595)
SB (t3490)
BB (t1530)
UTG (t1810)
MP (t1075)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to t450</font>, <font color="#CC3333">SB raises to t3565</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero?

Villain is a profitable regular, though I've seen him doing a few weird things. I hadn't yet been abusing my big stack, so it seems like he's probably on a pretty tight range to come over the top at me. Call or fold?

[freeucm]

I think here given the stack sizes with the three other under 1800 u can fold here, leaving u behind with 5000. Plus u said hes tight id fold.

[levAA]

i never ever fold this

[Emperor Norton]

Neva eva? I'm the thinnest of favorites against a range of {KK-99,AQ+}. I'm not sure that villain would shove 22bbs with AJ, so widening his range is probably to my detriment. Flipping a coin with t600 in overlay is pretty good, I guess, especially since I'd have a healthy stack even if I lost. But I felt at the time that if I folded I could ensure myself a big stack going into the bubble with which to bully the other players.

I just did some rough ICM calculations which suggest a fold. Going into the hand, my equity is around $45. If I call and win, my equity increases to $57, but if I call and lose, my equity plummets to $26. Basically, the chips I could win from this confrontation are worth far less than the chips I could lose.

[levAA]

this basically is a +EV situation everytime
3100 to win 4150.

and you are in front of this range

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.266% 41.61% 09.66% 410377020 95249082.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 48.734% 39.08% 09.66% 385411920 95249082.00 { KK-99, AQs+, AQo+ }

so i'd never ever fold this here

[mortimo]

I would raise t375-400 and probably fold to the push
I call against an unknown

edit: It`s read-depended, so I might call against a reg if he/she puts me on a wide opening-range

[Emperor Norton]

The trouble is that I believe this situation is +cEV without being +$EV.

If I fold, my equity is $43.18.

If I call and win, my equity is $57.73.

If I call and lose, my equity is $26.55.

My combined equity if I call is found in the following equation:
(%win)($win) + (%lose)($lose) = $EV
(0.513)(57.73) + (0.487)(26.55) = $42.55

So you'll note that my expectation from a call is lower than my expectation from a fold. So unless I think that villain is pushing AJ or worse, I need to fold in this spot. I think AKs would be a very narrow call.

[kurti]

you are looking at tt+, i fold. and i would just raise to 400.

[TruFloridaGator]

Fold, but then again OP you did the math [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Emperor Norton]

Ha, it just didn't occur to me to do the math until after I actually posted.