A-Rod total home runs

[Tweety]

Early in the season, I made a bet with a friend of mine on A-Rod's regular season home run total for this year. I bet my friend $1,000 that A-Rod would hit fewer than 52.5 home runs this year.

Obviously, I'm underwater on this bet right now. My friend has made me an offer to get out of the bet. I won't say what his number was right away- I'd like the mathematicians of this forum to do their best to price out what his marked to market p+l is on his position, and give me the number.

Obviously determining the fair value isn't all that easy. You can pro-rate his home run rate over the rest of the year, but do you use his home run rate this year or his career home run rate? Also, you have to look at the opposing teams he'll be facing between now and the rest of the season and the caliber of their pitching, you have to factor in injury risk, and then you have to factor in the risk of him getting benched if the Yanks clinch. Lots to think about here.

I'd like to see what people here come up with, then I'll let everyone know what his offer was and we can see if it's good. Today is Thursday and the yanks are idle. So I have until game time tomorrow to decide.

Thanks in advance for helping me out with this.

[CharlieDontSurf]

Haha...pudge ship me my $50.



edit: Arod will probably get injured now.

[sylar]

projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

[Rubeskies]

A-Rod is on pace for 55-57 HRs.

His career pace is 41.72 so he is running well. He's only hit 57 one other year. I'd say his target would be around 53-54 if he doesn't get injured. But A-rod is NOT injury prone. In his last 6 years he's played at least 154 games a year averaging 158. And with the Yankees in the playoff race he isn't going to get any time off from a management perspective.

The Yankees play Kansas city, Tor, and Boston. Kansas City thrown Gil Meche, Brian Bannister who are + pitchers, and Zach Greinke who is not. He faces Marcum, McGowen and Burnett so he'll miss Haliday. Then he'll face Boston vs D-mats, Beckett and Schilling. After that it's hard to tell. I'd say that's not an ideal pitching lineup but it's far from facing Johan every night.

Given that you still have a chance to win, you're not paying as much as you think pro-rated. But I'd still put it around $500 as a good deal for you.

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

[sylar]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

[Rubeskies]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's up to them to figure out. If the guy will go str8 up probability he should try to get it.

[Tweety]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
projection is 56. stdev is around 4 (i think a touch less), so he makes is about 75-80% of the time. say goodbye to you $800.

[/ QUOTE ]

Nope, prorated 80% would be $600. If it was 50% then it would be neutral EV. Both players would have an equal chance at winning the $1000. He'll win $1000 two out of ten and he'll lose $1000 8 out of ten for an average of $6000/10=$600 prorated.

I put $500 because I think he has a slightly less chance than 80%, something like 75%.

[/ QUOTE ]

sorry, you are right. i was thinking ahead, and the losing side would certainly pay a premium in this case. so $600+premium ~ $800?

[/ QUOTE ]

That's up to them to figure out. If the guy will go str8 up probability he should try to get it.

[/ QUOTE ]

He offered me $550. I thought it was an OK offer, but I am likely going to pass.

Basically, I've mentally prepared myself for the loss. I can suck it up and take a loss. What will really hurt is handing him $550 and then having the bet go the other way.

Basically, at this point, I really don't want to risk $1,550 to make $450, which is essentially what I'd be doing.

[Dids]

Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

[Tweety]

[ QUOTE ]
Think about where he plays his remaining games? Pitchers vs. hitters parks etc.

[/ QUOTE ]

Yup.. good point. I have done that.

I'm going to let it ride. I'll probably lose, but I'd rather give myself a shot.