September Low-Content Thread

[tessarji]

Lets consider the result of each 100 hands to be a measurement of your winrate, with a mean x=winrate and sigmax^2=variance. Each measurement is independent.

We want to know the mean and variance of a combination of several samples (X1, X2, X3...)

The mean of all samples is X = sum(x) = x1 + x2 + x3 ... + xn

The variance of all samples is sigmaX^2 = sum(sigmax)) = sigx1^2 + sigx2^2 + sigx3^2 ... + sigxn^2

In the special case where all xn and sigxn are the same, the formulas reduce to:

X = x*n
sigmaX^2 = sigx^2*n

Total mean is X and total standard deviation is sigmaX. For a normal distribution it is now simple to determine the chance that a random measurement from this distribution will be at a certain distance from the mean. Refer to any source on the normal distribution such as:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

or the much simpler adhoc rule which I applied here:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Empirical_rule

[private joker]

tessarji -- the most content ever in the low-content thread.

[tessarji]

I apologize. To make up for it I post this stupid hand from tonight.

I raise 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] at hijack, button CCs two, both blinds call.

Flop is 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I'm drawing to a flush so I bet. Button and SB call.

Turn is 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

I bet again, only button calls.

River is Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I give up and check, button checks behind. I grimace and muck my cards without showing. My opponent shows 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 5x to the table. I was outplayed by his river check-bluff.

[Sailboats]

would you be willing to take my midterm in exchange for some chips!?