Sunday Million: Q9s blind steal

[curtains]

Few notes: Me and the opponent have been involved in a lot of hands so far, with me coming out ahead maybe 7k in all of them combined. He seems rather aggressive and has stats of 25 20 with aggression of 4 after about 60 hands and seemingly bluffed against me once the entire hand because on the river he folded to my allin which was about 1/6th of the entire pot.

If you bet flop, what's your plan if checkraised? If called what turns do you bet/check?





PokerStars Game #10134898907: Tournament #50506312, $500+$30
Seat 1: BackDoorovic (10900 in chips)
Seat 2: shadowlive (9750 in chips)
Seat 3: blrmac (4700 in chips)
Seat 4: curtains (17850 in chips)
Seat 5: simmsux (11950 in chips)
Seat 6: Dukus (9775 in chips)
Seat 7: NemoStars22 (19025 in chips)
Seat 8: Chong94 (7775 in chips)
Seat 9: mcfin21 (10225 in chips)
simmsux: posts small blind 150
Dukus: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to curtains [9d Qd]
6 folds
curtains: raises 600 to 900
simmsux: calls 750
Dukus: folds
*** FLOP *** [9s 7s 4s]
simmsux: checks
curtains:

[FGators]

I'm not sure if our hand can stand a checkraise however we took the lead in the hand so I say we fire through here and bet. I think this guy is solid so I don't think he'd checkraise here without a hand that has us smoked so yeah I'm dumping it if he raises us. I'd pretty much bet any non spade turn, not sure how correct that is. If the turn is a 4 of diamonds I'm not sure why we can't get value out of our hand.

[betgo]

The flop is monochrome low cards, which presumbly missed your broadway cards, so you are likely to be checkraised if you bet. You are also likely to be ahead. So I think betting and folding to a checkraise is a bad approach.

[curtains]

Also may I add:

Yay for this forum. I didn't think having a high stakes MTT forum was so important, but now that I see it in action, it's the best idea ever!

[Exitonly]

[ QUOTE ]
The flop is monochrome low cards, which presumbly missed your broadway cards, so you are likely to be checkraised if you bet. You are also likely to be ahead. So I think betting and folding to a checkraise is a bad approach.

[/ QUOTE ]

agreed!

[curtains]

Ok so how do you plan to play it?

[MrTimCaum]

this seems like a really easy flop bet, where you 3-bet all in if he checkraises/call a shove if he shoves. i'd probably bet 1550 or so. if you've really been battling with him a lot, Q9o is pretty much the nuts with stacks this shallow.

[Exitonly]

i probably bet the flop and get it in if raised. i can see some value to checking behind, and if it wasn't an aggressive guy that you've been beating and who should be getting tired of losing to you, i think i'd like that better.

[RobertJohn]

The good thing is that he is less likely to pure check-raise bluff you here because it commits him when he could be in real bad shape.

His c/r (or check/shove) will commit himself to the pot with the hands he might be semi-bluffing with (AsTc and KsQd type hands), and you’ll be a small dog to those hands generally. The hands he will c/r for value (77 and TT or 8h8s) you will usually be a 4-to-1 dog against (sometimes close to dead) or a small favorite.

The pot size on the flop represents 1/5th of his stack so its unlikely he will fold any better hands to a PSB (maybe TT w/ no spade).

However, I think you should bet the potsize because he should be reluctant to c/r here with his hands that completely missed. Also, because of his stack size, against his c/r’ing range you are almost getting the right money to call off. Plus I think giving a free card is a little too dangerous given the 9-high board. I think you take it down often enough to be profitable considering the pot > 10% of your stack.

If, when he check-raises you, he holds:

A Set = 15%
Semi-Bluff with Two Overs: 60%
Overpair = 10%
A PP with a spade = 10%
Made Flush = 5%

Your equity ~ 38%

Run through PokerStove:

Board: 9s 7s 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 34.176% 33.69% 00.48% 15677 225.00 { Qd9d }
Hand 1: 65.824% 65.34% 00.48% 30403 225.00 { JcJs, JhJs, TT-99, 8c8s, 8d8s, 8h8s, 77, 44, AsTs, As8s, KsQs, KsJs, AcQs, AdQs, AhQs, AsQc, AsQd, AsQh, AcJs, AdJs, AhJs, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, AcTs, AdTs, AhTs, AsTc, AsTd, AsTh, KcQs, KdQs, KhQs, KsQc, KsQd, KsQh, KsJc, KsJd, KsJh }

So, if he c’r’s you, you will be a slight money dog to his range getting 1.45-to-1, but I think you take it down enough times to compensate for that. Also, if he is super-aggro and puts you on being super-aggro, he will bluff-raise you here some % of the time, putting you to the test on the 3-flush board, thus increasing your equity more than these rough estimates.

Can anyone support the alternative line of checking behind to deflate his semi-bluff hands which he might then lead with on the turn – then you can raise? Or does this just give up too much immediate value?

[betgo]

I think you will see a pure checkraise bluff here a lot from a good aggressive player. Often the checkraiser will have a pair or draw. This looks like a flop a preflop raiser would not be comfortable with, so I would expect a bluff.