3/6 River Straight - Raise or not?

[chucksim]

Another checkup from the weekend. Live 3/6. Only here 2 orbits, but looks like a typical loose passive table. Most want to see the flop, and won't raise without the goods.

2 folds to a raiser. MP calls, button calls, I look down at

Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] and I call. (8 SB)

Flop: 7 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 10 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, PF Raiser bets, MP folds, button calls, I call. (5.5 BB)

Turn 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

I check, PF Raiser bets, button calls, I call. (8.5 SB)

River 6 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

I check, PFR bets, button calls, I raise (????)

Now, is the river raise just spewing, or standard? I had the odds to chase, and I got there, but so did the flush.

I read PFR for a big pair or a big A, and he obviously didn't like the river and made a little whince when it hit.

I figured button would have raised if he made his flush instead of trying for an overcall (just didn't think he was that sophisticated). Likewise, he would have raised earlier if he had a higher straight.

Can I trust reads like this at 3/6, or just be safe, call, and hope to take a nice pot?

Also, anyone find a raise anywhere else? Flop, maybe?

[Allday Everyday]

I think you actually should have bet that river. I think you probably have the best hand and you don't want it to be checked through on this very dangerous board.

As played, I think you should raise the river. I think you have the best hand and will get paid off by at least one of these guys.

[Alex424]

yeah b/c is easily the best river play here

[Grease]

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yeah b/c is easily the best river play here

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[UtzChips]

Trust your reads and maximize their potential until your proven wrong.
I don't know that I could ck that dangerous board though. Very possible you would get it checked around, but you didn't.
Can't believe MP bet with overpair when str8 & Flush got there. You had a few fish on the hook there.

[HoneyBadger]

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yeah b/c is easily the best river play here

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[miw210]

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yeah b/c is easily the best river play here

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[KenProspero]

Your analysis of PFR and Button are both reasonable. Without sitting at the table, I can't disagree.

So, River hits. You're confident that you have PFR beat, but button may have a flush.

Your options -- bet. Given both the straight and the flush draws, you may take the pot down right here. Alternately, PFR may think you're trying to steal the pot and call you down. PFR may raise in a 3/6 game, but I don't read a flush here, so don't see what hand he's likely to have. Button will probably call with a flush, and probably fold. otherwise, unless he has some real hidden strength.

If you check, and Button raises, call it down. If Button doesn't raise (or bet). I think you have to raise here. You have PFR beat, but it's unlikely, but not impossible, that he'll fold to one bet. Without a read, you have to assume that Button doesn't have a flush. If he does, so be it, it's cost you one bet, and you have some information. Also, if you do check/raise and both do fold, you've gained valuable information for later.

Check. With the straight of flush draws apparant from the board, your real danger is that you have the best hand and that (1) PFR will check and (2) Button will check or bet with a flush. I expect this to happen most of the time. Alternately, PFR bets, and Button raises (you're calling two bets with your straight, but not happily). I think what actually happened, is the least likely alternative, but best for you.

The only real question here is whether you bet the river or check as you did. Given the flush draw, I've seen others check here as you did. My call -- Bet the river.

[chucksim]

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yeah b/c is easily the best river play here

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Yeah, in retrospect, you guys are right. Much better to bet/call.

I just got into check mode and didn't even think when I finally hit my hand. Brain fart.

Ultimately, this mistake netted me a bet, as the action after I raised went fold-call. Had I bet, I may have gotten 2 calls. PFR had a set of 10's and button showed Q10o.

That's no excuse, though. Should have bet the river.

[fishyak]

I'll be the devil's advocate and vote for the river c/r. You take the risk of being checked through, but by checking, PFR thinks his overpair my be good. He should check, but he plows ahead. Sometimes, I will be able to count on that as a read. What I really want is a test of the Button. If he raises, he most likely has his flush his and I can get out of the cold call. But if he only calls... no flush! Gotta raise at that point.

OTOH, if you bet out and get raised by the Button, you'll feel forced to make that call. Live, with your reads and your position, I like the C/R on the river, but I admit that betting out was a safer line. Good c/r opportunities do not come up that often and also tend to pay dividends in later hands. Your opponents will be nervous about you after this successfull c/r. That has value past this hand, particularly live. Either line has a viable argument, but I like mixing it up where there are justifiable grounds to do so.