Overpair minraised on the flop from OOP, oh my.

[STARSCREAM.]

Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LegoPoker Hand History Converter

BB: $34.45
UTG: $58.25
Hero (MP): $93.90
CO: $51.40
BTN: $69.45
SB: $9.55

Pre-Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $2</font>, CO calls $2, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.75) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $3</font>, <font color="red">CO raises to $6</font>, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($16.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, CO checks

River: ($16.75) 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
Hero checks, <font color="red">CO bets $12</font>, Hero calls $12

Very new to the table, no real reads on anybody, villian included. I am always lost in spots like these. So I hope to get a lot from this thread.

Help needed on every street.

[kroeliewoelie]

You have a very marginal overpair on a paired board. So the only thing you beat is 33-88 and flushdraws, while A9,JJ+ beat you. Considering his passiveness preflop, I think overpairs like QQ+ are unlikely. So say his range is 77,88,A9,JJ+ a few flushdraws (mostly aces).

Since there is a flushdraw on the board and he's minraising you, I don't mind calling. But I'd prefer to donk any non-diamond, non A turn (since a lot of guys play a lot of aces). Once the diamond rolls of on the turn, i c/f. And once the river paired the board twice, you are really toast. As played is the river a clear fold IMO.

[wodka]

without reads i would fold that river. You are only beating a bluff.

[STARSCREAM.]

I just don't see how any of his range that we can put him on from his flop action that we're not losing to, doesn't bet the turn.

Any flush needs to protect itself, as does any 9. So does JJ+. Seems like any of the hands that we're beatting would check behind the turn, and after that, if the river is bet it could easily be a bluff since i've shown so much weakness.

[kroeliewoelie]

That may be right, but not everybody thinks the same way as we do. Maybe he has 9x and is afraid of the flush, since you called his flopraise and doesn't understand that he should bet the turn. Once the 3 rolls of, he doesn't have to worry about the flush anymore and starts betting again. I think this is way more likely than a bluff.

[STARSCREAM.]

I know that we can't assume that our opponents think as we do, but then how are we as educated players supposed to automatically assume an unknown thinks at this level with no stats? This is why 50nl gives me so much trouble.