Gutshot + 2 Overs. Do I continue?

[neurotiq]

SB is 43/5/1.32.

I'm dealt K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in MP2. I open-raise. Both blinds stick around.

Flop is: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Checked to me. I c-bet. SB check-raises. BB folds. I call, figuring that with a backdoor flush draw, gutshot, and two overcards, I have more than enough outs to continue. I'm not sure if I should count a full 11.5 outs, but even if I shouldn't, I still have a few.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]4[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

SB leads. Am I continuing?

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
SB leads. Am I continuing?

[/ QUOTE ]

You tell us, and tell us why. Then we tell you why you're wrong. It works better that way. [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

I call. When it's HU, your overcards are more likely to be good, so I would give you about 8-9 outs here.

[neurotiq]

Okay, I did call and hit my gutshot on the river. I raised SB who called. I opened up my straight and he showed T6 for the flopped (now smaller) straight. He and another player then proceeded to call me a donkey, so I figured I'd check in to see if they were right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
Okay, I did call and hit my gutshot on the river. I raised SB who called. I opened up my straight and he showed T6 for the flopped (now smaller) straight. He and another player then proceeded to call me a donkey, so I figured I'd check in to see if they were right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

Ok, but WHY did you call? And, for the love of Shania, turn off chat.

[OziBattler]

neorotiq, are these live hands or online? If online then why (in this and other hands youve posted) do you always edit out details such as site and stakes?The more information you give the better.

[Xylocain]

Because we can go to BBV to find out if we are curious. [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[neurotiq]

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And, for the love of Shania, turn off chat.

[/ QUOTE ]

lol, good advice...

Why did I call? Well, SB could have two pair, a set, or a straight, but it's more likely, probabilistically, that he has a pair. I don't have any reads saying whether he would check-raise with just a pair, but having a 1.32 AF when he plays 43% of hands isn't too low (it wouldn't be that high if he had a more reasonable vpip, but playing a lot of junk and still having that AF rings some bells). So, I can't really conclusively determine that he has better than a pair, so I count most of my outs as full and in that sized pot, I'm getting better than 4.88:1 (which would be 8 outs). And I'm not even counting implied odds here; it seems like I have plenty of odds to continue...

[neurotiq]

[ QUOTE ]
neorotiq, are these live hands or online?

[/ QUOTE ]

Gosh, I wish I could calculate VPIP, PFR, and AF so precisely in live games.

No, these are online. Always at FTP and always at $0.50/$1.

[Christian_Peters]

[ QUOTE ]
He and another player then proceeded to call me a donkey, so I figured I'd check in to see if they were right. [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

This coming from a player who flops a str8 and decides to c/r an LP c-bet on a flop of 789.