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Old 12-01-2007, 07:45 PM
The once and future king The once and future king is offline
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Join Date: Aug 2004
Location: Iowa, on the farm.
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Default Re: The differences between 1929 and Today

DcifrThs

Consider this exercise.

The Fed never announces a cut in a vacuum. It is normally in the context of some negative news for the economy.

Now given all the reasons you have given for why interest rate cuts lead to a positive price action in equities could you postulate how bad the negative news would have to be to counter the upside from an interest rate cut.

I ask because if one looks at the recent history the news has been fairly negative but has never got close to actually leading to a fall (by news I mean assessments from the fed) . In fact the worse the news the bigger the positive price action because the likely hood of bigger and more sustained cuts becomes a greater possibility.

The greatest absurdity is that the only announcements from the fed the markets hates to hear is that there is an inflation danger (hence inhibiting interest rate cuts).
"There is a danger of inflation this month so this month we wont be inflating."

Contradictions and absurdities infest the system of money at the moment imo.
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