200NL: Combo draw OOP vs monkey facing heat...

[SirFelixCat]

Villain is HORRIBLE 46/29/2.3 and is the reason this table is going. He had previously played this hand vs me about 20 mins prior, and then called a push from a TAG w/ A6o on a KT4r flop:

Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SB: $932.95
BB: $344.95
UTG: $260.10
MP: $302.90
CO: $767.00
SFC (BTN): $204.25

Preflop: SFC is dealt T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (6 Players)
3 folds, <font color="red">SFC raises to $8.00</font>, <font color="red">SB raises to $24.00</font>, BB folds, SFC calls $16.00

Flop: ($50) T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">SFC bets $34.00</font>, SB calls $34.00

Turn: ($118) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 Players)
SB checks, <font color="red">SFC bets all-in for $146.25</font>, SB calls $146.25

River: ($410.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players - 1 All-In)

Pot Size: $410.50 ($3 Rake)

SB had A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Nines) and LOST (-$204.25)
SFC had T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (two pair, Aces and Tens) and WON (+$203.25)


Not sure what to make of his raise here on the turn. What's our best choice on turn/river?


Full Tilt Poker - No Limit Hold'em Cash Game - $1/$2 Blinds - 6 Players - (LegoPoker Hand History Converter)

SFC (SB): $414.25
BB: $718.75
UTG: $481.00
MP: $269.15
CO: $438.35
BTN: $738.00

Preflop: SFC is dealt 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (6 Players)
2 folds, CO calls $2.00, BTN folds, SFC calls $1.00, BB checks

Flop: ($6) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (3 Players)
SFC checks, <font color="red">BB bets $4.00</font>, CO folds, <font color="red">SFC raises to $17.00</font>, BB calls $13.00

Turn: ($40) A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">SFC bets $26.00</font>, <font color="red">BB raises to $118.00</font>, SFC ???


eta: fair range? <font class="small">Code:</font><hr /><pre> Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,728,737 games 2.438 secs 1,529,424 games/sec

Board: As 8h 6h 4s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 24.336% 24.42% 00.00% 910714 0.00 { Th9h }
Hand 1: 75.664% 75.94% 00.00% 2831485 0.00 { 88, 66, 44, A8s, Ah7h, A6s, Ah5h, A4s, KsTs, 9s7s, 84s, 75s, 64s, A8o, A6o, A4o, 84o, 75o, 64o } </pre><hr />

[czGLoRy]

with the odds being offered, you are a dog obviously. You need to make $92 to break even, and are we saying about $100 to make call worth while.
Since you are about 25% to hit on the river, you are only a 52% favorite over his range on a pairing river (4h etc), meaning you get stacked to a boat. You shove a flush, he may fold. (maybe.)
Its a close one I think. If you think he pays off a shove on any brick heart or seven 80% of the time (I think thats about the correct percent) then you can call, any less you can't (if shoving is the line taken).

Really want to hear what others say, this is rambling at 4 am so might be unclear... I will check up on it tomorrow!

[carrotsnake]

I hate stoving, but call, shove all rivers that improve you, pretty sure you've got implied here, and its like, 90 more into a 200 pot right ? Seems easyyyyyyyy call here

[Toyboy]

Think youre right once we've gotten this far; don't love the spot, but villain looks like he'll pay off so call getting 2:1 and pray he doesnt have AhXh (but he'd likely raise that pre?).

But is turn bet good? Dont think so against this guy; wouldnt mind betting the ace against a weak player, but this guy seems like he likes to call big bets on scary boards, so why are we building a pot with our draw? Would rather c/c turn, we'll get paid off often enough if we hit river here.

[ QUOTE ]
I hate stoving, but call, shove all rivers that improve you, pretty sure you've got implied here, and its like, 90 more into a 200 pot right ? Seems easyyyyyyyy call here

[/ QUOTE ]

[Keyser.]

I probably don't play this gutter+FD that fast against this dude while deep and OOP. Leaves for some really sucky turn spots, and you can ostensibly get paid off big even if the pot is small on the flop. Lead/call flop if raised looks better than a cr.

[Casper05]

1 vote for checking turn

[gimmetheloot]

2.

and call, huge donk on good turns. if river a str8, plz shove.