Variance Question NLTRN

monkeytales · #1 08-22-2007, 01:20 AM

I just starting implementing HU poker into my daily routine. I play about 5 a day, I know, not a huge sample, but give some ideas on what variance runs like in the HU world. This month, before today, I was 28-12 in HU SNGS with an ROI of 38%. Today was horrible, 5-6. Including a loss in a HU match that was 5x my normal buy in. I figured HU matches would have pretty low variance, looking back, I played badly in one match, and fine in the other 10...help with the variance question please.

waxhax0rs · #2 08-22-2007, 02:15 AM

Ehhh...5-6 is NOT horrible (especially if you're playing turbos) and why were you playing 5x your normal buyin? Were you on tilt? If you were tilting, be happy you didn't lose more...

ChicagoRy · #3 08-22-2007, 03:30 AM

Check out the sticky thread, I think there's a good math winrate/ROI type thread from TXnixon in there that can demonstrate what you should expect as far as +/- days for different winrates.

dboy23 · #4 08-22-2007, 10:32 AM

5 - 6 is a bad day? That sounds like a great day to me.

Conspiracy · #5 08-22-2007, 12:31 PM

HU matches have pretty low variance and 5-6 is not even close to a downswing or anything like that.

I would say most players will experience a 15 buy-in downswing at least once in their "career"

HokieGreg · #6 08-22-2007, 12:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
HU matches have pretty low variance and 5-6 is not even close to a downswing or anything like that.

I would say most players will experience a 15 buy-in downswing at least 27 times in their "career"

[/ QUOTE ]

fyp

Sheetah · #7 08-22-2007, 03:34 PM

[ QUOTE ]
... Including a loss in a HU match that was 5x my normal buy in ...

[/ QUOTE ]
Martingale or some [censored] like that? Chasing losses?

HU SNGs are no good for "progressive betting". Even those who believe in 'streaks' tend to forget that in last few days they've been running too hot and that it won't last forever.
It's the game you should grind, over and over and after some decent sample size if the results are satisfying and the BR is big enough - THEN you move up.

ChicagoRy · #8 08-22-2007, 03:54 PM

Moving up and down very fast with a fairly thin bankroll is the most profitable and efficient way of making money in HUSNG IMO, but you have to have a ton of discipline.

Sheetah · #9 08-22-2007, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Moving up and down very fast with a fairly thin bankroll is the most profitable and efficient way of making money in HUSNG IMO, but you have to have a ton of discipline.

[/ QUOTE ]
Leveling?
How thin exactly?
How about '5x'?

ChicagoRy · #10 08-22-2007, 04:17 PM

No, I mean ~15 buyins lower levels, ~20 buyins higher levels. This assumes you are a good player and likely can beat a level or two higher than you play (or are a very fast learner) and that you can handle moving up and down several levels in 100-200 game stretches. I do think it is optimal for the right people with the right mindset to make the most money per game.

Edit:

It may sound like a lot of buyins to some people, but I think most stable winners over the long term in the non nosebleeds play with a lot more than 20 buyins. They make only keep 10-20 buyins online, but they definitely have a lot of money offline they can redeposit if they hit some bad variance.