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#41
08-15-2007, 10:44 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
Speedlimits,
Betting the flop allows us to better mix our play for the rest of the hand. Come turn we can continue our aggression or now check behind to induce a river bluff (which seems more likely that will happen rather then rely on inducing a bluff on the turn AND river from him with a flop check). Mostly though, I would continue to bet the turn. We still get action from alot of hands we destroy and also allows him to raise us which accomplishes our goal. Don't forget that we can induce a bluff by betting ourselves. Very important. Dan Bitel, Our preflop range for him consists primarily of PP TT-, Ax (where x is less then a Q), SC's from 65s-T9s, 1 gappers within the same range and broadways. Many of those hands now flopped either a set, 2 pair, a SD, a pair + SD, a weaker TP hand or a pair that has backdoor outs (77) or an overpair to two of the cards (TT w/JJ-KK being very unlikely). Jay Riall, Thank you. And yes I mind much less checking behind on an A84 flop since now our value increases with inducing and decreases with him calling because he has 'some of it'. I prolly still bet it though for many reasons. Unknown Soldier, No. That is a ridiculous statement to make.... Unless you use each hand for its own independent sample size in which case, yes, once the money goes in its a 50/50, you win or you lose or in your case, you either have it or you don't, winning or losing, etc... Nick Royale, If we are differing on what we feel this guy calls us on then I guess we will never see eye to eye here. The reasons why i feel his calling range is wider is based on his PF play primarily. He is a caller. Why stop on the flop...especially if he has a piece of it. Not to mention that the pot is getting big with our 3bet and that money is worth going after for him. It seems silly to think he has such a tight calling range given all this. And why are you convinced that he is so ready to c/r shove on us with this flop? And why is it ridiculous to think a player like this can't shove draws and air and pairs with outs this deep? And why are we still using the word deep here? I guess I am more willing to stack off here then many of you.... 
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#42
08-15-2007, 10:51 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
[ QUOTE ]
edit- And we are never deep in this hand. 135BB is not deep nor slightly deep. Also, as you can see I do acknowledge our flop check may induce bets from weaker but no way can I say that that alone outways all of the positives for betting here. Infact if we shove and he folds, all we did was induce 1 bet where we may have induced a c/r which yields us his stack... [/ QUOTE ] Ok, 135bb is more than 100bb and opponents are less willing to lose 135bb with a marginal hand rather than 100bb. Let's agree on that and don't care whether or not to call it "slightly deep". I also have to say getting it in on this flop hoping he'll have AT/Ax/oesd is retarded. The range he felt on this flop kills AJ.
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#43
08-15-2007, 10:54 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
[ QUOTE ]
Dan Bitel, Our preflop range for him consists primarily of PP TT-, Ax (where x is less then a Q), SC's from 65s-T9s, 1 gappers within the same range and broadways. Many of those hands now flopped either a set, 2 pair, a SD, a pair + SD, a weaker TP hand or a pair that has backdoor outs (77) or an overpair to two of the cards (TT w/JJ-KK being very unlikely). [/ QUOTE ] Firstly, wtf? how can he flop a pair and SD on this flop? second, there's only 2 exact hands he can have that flopped more than 5 outs vs us, and all the rest are FOLDING to a flop bet. So I still don't get where you are getting your magical value from. It seems very clear to me that there is WAY more value in making your hand seem weaker than it is to encourage lighter calls on turn and river and to induce bluffs
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#45
08-15-2007, 11:00 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
[ QUOTE ]
Unknown Soldier, No. That is a ridiculous statement to make.... Unless you use each hand for its own independent sample size in which case, yes, once the money goes in its a 50/50, you win or you lose or in your case, you either have it or you don't, winning or losing, etc... [/ QUOTE ] what? one hands 100% to win ones 0 unless villain has AJ too. I don't understand what you're saying. The rest of your post was good though, great effort!
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#47
08-15-2007, 11:08 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
[ QUOTE ]
Nick Royale, If we are differing on what we feel this guy calls us on then I guess we will never see eye to eye here. The reasons why i feel his calling range is wider is based on his PF play primarily. He is a caller. Why stop on the flop...especially if he has a piece of it. Not to mention that the pot is getting big with our 3bet and that money is worth going after for him. It seems silly to think he has such a tight calling range given all this. [/ QUOTE ] This is probably the last post I make, need to get some sleep. However I have enjoyed the discussion. I don't think he's calling the flop with 87/T9 etc that often. And def not with PPs <88. I think checking the flop has a decent chance of getting bets or calls from these hands or air later though (or at least increasing the chance of getting a bet out of them, so be it if it is from 0% to 20% or 40% to 70%). [ QUOTE ] And why are you convinced that he is so ready to c/r shove on us with this flop? And why is it ridiculous to think a player like this can't shove draws and air and pairs with outs this deep? And why are we still using the word deep here? I guess I am more willing to stack off here then many of you.... [/ QUOTE ] He might c/r JT, but at this level when he c/r you're definately crushed vs his range. He'll c/r with air close to never. Btw, betting this hand playing nl600 is much better than playing nl100. Both for meta game and because felting this and is clearly better on nl600 because of the more aggressive play. Also it's way more likely to induce a bluff or more often a call at nl100, at higher limits ppl know you're not checking this flop often to fold the turn. I don't think betting the flop is close actually. Guess we need to agree to disagree.
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#48
08-15-2007, 11:09 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
Wow.
I don't mind the flop check because with your stack sizes, getting in all in is not an issue if that is what you decide to do. You also get PP's to bet out the turn often. Turn call is good. After he checks to you on the river, you have to bet. Please please please do not check this. You need to bet at least 35 dollars. I would lean more towards 50-ish... I didn't see any stats on him, but if his WSD is high definitely push. As presented, a push is not bad, but I prefer a value bet around 50.
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#49
08-15-2007, 11:11 PM
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Re: AJ Squeeze, flops Ace, river?
What I am saying is that from his perspective he is beating a certain % of our range and losing to the other % with a small % given for chops. So He may very well not be viewing this from a WA/WB spot but rather a WA-SA/SB spot if he is debating a call.
I hope from the thread that you see us view this hand from a WA/WB spot with it heavily heavily weighted towards WA. Viewing hands in a WA/WB fashion is a concept....not a stipulation. Your statement saying 'one hands 100% to win, ones 0' reinforces my previous post to you. Thinking like this is the same as getting your money in before the river hits and saying, '50/50. Either I win or I lose'. It doesnt matter what the actual %'s of probability are for your hand because for this thought process only the final results matter (and this is a whole other topic which has merit but this is not the thread to discuss it in).
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