Free money from BODOG

[bot1478]

BODOG have some Ford props. Will Ford sell Jag? That is a sure thing. Will Ford sell LR? Pretty close to a sure thing. I can guess at some countries, but why guess when the sale of both is sure.

Will they sell them together? probably yes. Why else would anyone buy Jag and its $100 mil yearly losses if it wasnt part of LR deal. But I would call that a sure thing.

[SonnyJay]

There's been a decent amount of speculation that Ford won't move LR, or at least not soon. I also think that there's a decent chance that they're not sold together, particularly if the buyers are financial buyers (ie. PE fund).

If I were to bet them, I'd probably take your sides, and I very well may bet the Jag prop. I'd want to do more research before I came to a conclusion.

-SonnyJay

[bot1478]

Trust me on this. You dont need more research

[Grasshopp3r]

The caveat is that Ford sells them in 2007. There is the distinct possibility that Ford just closes them for all the red ink that they spew.

[bot1478]

close them? no way. they will get a few billion for jag

[SonnyJay]

I don't mean to be critical, but do you have any stronger reasoning than
[ QUOTE ]
Will they sell them together? probably yes. Why else would anyone buy Jag and its $100 mil yearly losses if it wasnt part of LR deal.

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This would hardly be the first time that a buyer, either financial or strategic, bought a company in the red without a profitable division thrown in. Any reason that you think that it is particularly true in this case?


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There is the distinct possibility that Ford just closes them for all the red ink that they spew.

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Agree with bot here, there is almost no chance this happens, and certainly not by the end of 2007. The only way that they'd close it and incur the costs of doing so is if they saw absolutely no signs of a turnaround and absolutely no buyers, and that doesn't seem to be the case here.

[bot1478]

I only guess that it would be together, becasue Jag has lost money for a lng time. Like since Ford bought them. So the turnaround cant be easy. But I am guessing that it is together. I didnt bet that, when i ccould simply bet on the sale.

[bot1478]

Interesting that Jag sale was minus 140 when i first posted it. Now it is minus 400.

But Jag sale is still easy money

[SonnyJay]

Here's a bet that I like:
"What Country will the Automaker that purchases Jaguar be from?"
England 13/2

I honestly think that Bodog was thinking only about existing automakers when setting the line here, not financial buyers. I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.

Two of the prominent potential buyers are Alchemy Partners and Magma, both British firms. Alchemy reportedly is already preparing a bid, and Magma appears to be interested as well (the head of Magma is Martin Leach, who used to head up Ford Europe). Also, a lot of the speculation that the buyer will end up being from England due to some concerns about foreign firms dealing with the labor organizations.

Plenty of other buyers will come forward, and other funds already seem to be interested (including Cerberus). It's hardly a guarantee, but at a 13.3% breakeven percentage, I really like the odds on England.

[dankhank]

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I e-mailed Bodog support, and they ensured that the buyer doesn't need to be an existing "Automaker." Thus, the winning country can also include where the investment vehicle is based.


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save that e-mail please