AQo on the bubble

[Beerocrat]

[ QUOTE ]

If someone thinks we should fold where i wonder do you expect to gain +ev spots.

[/ QUOTE ]

By being the one who pushes.

[fanapathy]

Why is it -ev to call ?

I'll make a thorough explaination here since I've not posted much on the forum aswell and you guys seem interested in understanding ICM. This is probably done in other posts here but I can take this hand example to perhaps make it interesting to read.

First, let's figure out our stack value. In a 10player $100 SNG with a 50/30/20 payout (using http://www.chillin411.com/icmcalc.php):

Fold:

1815 chips = $177.6

Not taking into account all variables like the shover getting called etc. This would be your equity by folding, the same as when the hand starts.

Now, we must check if we gain more than $177.6 if we call.

Call and lose = $0
Call and win = 3990 chips = $312

Any two cards:

Let's open pokerstove. We figure out the AQ's equity against a random hand. AQo is 64.4% to win. So.

64.4% of the time, you double up. (However that does not at all mean that your stack value has doubled as you can see above)

We win $312 only 64% of the time when we call. Therefore:
0.644*312 = $200.9

Difference = +$23.3

Now, being on the button opens the chances of other players calling the shove aswell and that will definitely happen, but not taking that into account now but that is why SnG Wiz has this as -EV. SNGEGT has this as a clear call if the shover had any two.

"Realistic" average range:

AT+,77+,KQs

AQ is now 40.4% to win. So:

0.404*312 = $126

Difference: -$51.6

We can see that half your buyin gets wasted making this call in this case [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] not good

"Tight expert"'s range:

Maybe 88, but we give him

99+,AQ+

AQ's equity = 35,5%

0.355*312 = $110.76

Difference: -$66.84 (give money to beggar on the street instead, this would just be silly)

Neither of these take into account split pots or overcalls. Hope this helps..

[TruFloridaGator]

Easy, easy fold, although this is a common, major leak.

[mattiesmat]

Can somebody explain in simple mattiesmat language why this is a super bad call and super easy fold?
How can i recognize those spots and not make this very bad mistake?

[CheeseMoney]

[ QUOTE ]
Can somebody explain in simple mattiesmat language why this is a super bad call and super easy fold?
How can i recognize those spots and not make this very bad mistake?

[/ QUOTE ]
Folding costs you mother [censored] money... glad I could help.

In other words, you need to win against his range more often than you do. You aren't getting the odds to call this vs. his range and the possibility of busting out. Just play with SNGWIZ and it will become intuitive. Another way to think of it is to question what hands would he be pushing that you beat, what hands have you crushed or flipping (very bad for you), and then make some sort of mental adjustment for the benefit of chips gained vs. chips lost.

[mattiesmat]

I understand most situations, just not that this is -3! and even when he pushes 100% it's -ev.

[J Darnielle]

Thankyou for fixing one of J Darnielle's huge leaks.

[Q..]

[ QUOTE ]
You can't call here. You need a pair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmm are you sure you know what your saying? Not many pairs play better then AQ against hes range, and chances to get 88+ are around 3%, that would require 33 hands on average when we would have a great gambling time doubleuping our 200 chips to 400 and getting a huge +ev on that call, but most likely we wont even get that before we get blinded away.
Also winning this hand almost guarantees money, while pushes into big stack don't really guarantee anything.
Only reason why we could fold AQ here really if we know something about pusher range , that hes good etc.
Hes probably not good because he requires monster hands to push that profitably.

[HajiShirazu]

This one is subtle though. There are situations where calling 10bb with AQ on the bubble is a standard play (probably never against a somewhat tight range like he usually will have here but against slightly looser ranges). But here calling makes you more likely to get second or fourth, but doesn't make you substantially more likely to get first or third. And playing for second is rarely a good play due to the payout structure.