$10k at the 27s in 1 month challenge

[runhot]

my last 1500 games before the challenge ss says 10%. to keep myself from quitting, i ran that in roi sim and it says there is 90% chance my actual roi is at least 5%. that being said, i have a lot of catching up to do... but i'm guna do it

[prodonkey]

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Why wouldn't you accept a start from scratch bet, if you feel your expected ROI is over 20%?

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1. Im not that confident. A lot of people seem to think that its unlikely, and I take that into account.

2. It commits me to playing a lot longer at the $16s. If I turn out to be good enough to win this bet it would probably be better for me to move up, unless I bet a ton of money (which im scared to do because of #1)


If I get good enough odds I may do it for 500 games from scrathc.

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I think you're missing the biggest point, that no one really gives a [censored] about what you can do in 500 games since it means almost nothing. There is still so much luck involved in 1k that nobody is going to lay you huge odds.

[eurythmech]

Right, I'm done hi-jacking this thread.

gl runhot.

[STALLOWN3D]

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my last 1500 games before the challenge ss says 10%. to keep myself from quitting, i ran that in roi sim and it says there is 90% chance my actual roi is at least 5%. that being said, i have a lot of catching up to do... but i'm guna do it

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Way to stay positive runhot. You having any time to review at all? GL the rest of the way!

[prodonkey]

you do realize that runhot has done almost 1k sngs in the last 4 days right? So it's not like having to play 1k would keep you chained to 16's for months LOL. If you want to do this start a new thread though.

[jmill2511]

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Right, I'm done hi-jacking this thread.

gl runhot.

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[The Venetian]

FWIW, sharkscope me (The_Venetian) from 8/26/07-8/29/07 for a similar ROI run as Fiasco over a similar sample size 26-tabling the $16's. I ran 12% for the entire month.

Also, to kind of keep the thread on course, keep plugging away runhot, a run like this is well within the norm for a winning player...it just came at a bad time.

[billxo1b]

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my last 1500 games before the challenge ss says 10%. to keep myself from quitting, i ran that in roi sim and it says there is 90% chance my actual roi is at least 5%. that being said, i have a lot of catching up to do... but i'm guna do it

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Way to stay positive runhot. You having any time to review at all? GL the rest of the way!

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How many tables do you play? SG started with >20 tabling, and dropped to, I remember, 16 tabling a few days later.

[Fiasco]

Also done with hijack and apologize to runhot. Good luck with the bet.

BTW, where is this ROI sim?

[prodonkey]

I'll let u buy out for 95%