100NL: QQ overpair facing turn raise

[deagle185]

This hand was against a regular on Full Tilt playing 21/16/4 over 300 hands or so. What's his range here and what should I do on the turn?

Full Tilt Poker, $0.50/$1 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 5 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero : $114.70
Villain (BTN): $132.05
SB: $101.15
BB: $108.05
UTG: $107.65

Pre-Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] dealt to Hero
UTG folds, <font color="red">Hero raises to $3.50</font>, Villain calls $3.50, 2 folds

Flop: ($8.50) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $6</font>, Villain calls $6

Turn: ($20.50) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 Players)
<font color="red">Hero bets $15</font>, <font color="red">Villain raises to $41</font>, Hero??

[Ciprian]

medium pair, probably we are beaten here. for sure not T7, QT, the most probably hand here is 88.

[Saligia]

I expect a reg to raise a set on the flop. I guess he's range is made up of combodraws/2pair/TP+str8draw, u can best hope for being a slight favourite. Also very few rivercards that can help u. I think folding&gt;pushing&gt;calling.

[deagle185]

Yeah I think I'm behind his range here for sure. A reg may not necessarily raise a set on the flop considering how aggro 6 max games are becoming these days but 2 pair and strong combo draw that improved on the turn are definitely possible. I just dropped it there. Thanks for the feedback.

[Kimpan]

fold

[Aquadougs]

I think his range at the preflop call is about:
22-77 - 80% of the time
AT-AJ, QTs, KTs, KQo, 89s-QJs - 60% of the time
Some worse and better cards than those over - 30% of the time
This depends on how often he 3bets, cause then I think his callingrange at preflop consists of fewer broadways.

His flop call could be a float attempt, since his AF is high. (He would often raise his draws and sets in this spot). But if it isnt a float attemt, i think his most probable range is cards he would potcontrol: 89, 78, (QJ sometimes), 99, TT.
I think the flop call range depends alot of how you play turn and river. If you check-fold turn alot, then Its more probable that he is trying to bluff you there now. If you secondbarrel often, then I think the flop call consists of better hands.

The thing is that i dont think he would call with a draw, so when he raises when the "straight" hits, I think his range is:
89s 2 combinations -&gt; 1,5 effective combinations
99 3 combinations -&gt; 3 effective combinations
TT 6 combinations -&gt; 6 effective combinations
QT 8 combinations -&gt; 5 effective combinations
(J9s) 2 combinations -&gt; 1 effective combination
bluff 5 effective combinations (?)

So we have 21,5 effective combinations
Of those, i think he would fold the bluffs and the TT's which is 11 combinations if you push, but if he calls, you are WB. If we say you loose everytime he calls, you have to take down the pot 51% of the time to go breakeven. Since i think he would fold 11 of 16,5 times = 56% of the time, then i think its marginally spot to push.

What about a call?
You have 3:1 in pot odds, and are about WB/WA against his range. If you make a block bet at river, maybe he would think you were weak and raise you, so I think the best alternative would be to c/f the river. If he bets at the river, I think you could safely fold because of the action at turn. At the river I think he would valuebet his straights, half of his sets and some more combinations. That is 5+3+3 = 8 combinations. If he checks, then 3 more combinations will beat you and you will beat 10 of his combinations. So if we call the turn, we got these outcomes:

Call, Check-Bet. Prob: 8/21,5. Win: -25. EV: -9,3
Call, Check-Check-win. Prob: 10/21,5. Win: 76. EV: 35
Call, Check-Check-loose. Prob: 3/21,5. Win: -3,5

Total EV if you call turn, and c/fold river: +22,2

So, I would call turn.

I made this very simple (without draws and that), but could make that calculation if you will.